agdamis

In my office today getting ready for the trading day and spotted this particularly interesting chart of Auto sales in the US. It is a chart of all new car sales in the US in the last 20 years. A chart of "just European car sales in the US actually looked a bit better. Enjoy.

Ucube

That's what I call a waterfall. There, my technical analyis for the day.

richc

They don't need to sell cars...they've found free money.

tooloud10

^^ Not fair to picture a Ford in that ad...they're the ones NOT taking any bailout money.

Dr_KarlB

So this started late 2006.... thats quite a while before the current financial meltdown.
What were they doing for all of 2007 and the first 3/4 of 2008 ??

RonCT

Looks like a pattern - time for a rebound just like we had after the S&L fiasco of the late 80s - early 90s. The consumer will come back - just a matter of when the confidence is there to start the cycle again.

nyca

How is the consumer going to come back? Jobs are declining, and home equity is tapped out. A friend of mine just bought a condo in Orlando, $93K, it sold for $215K at its peak.

KeninBlaine

Taking their fat paychecks and bonuses home in wheelbarrows.

abe

..your friend was smart to buy now (low) with low mortgage payments. Now people like him will have more money spend on goodies. And when the prices go up...we can start this process all over again.
abe

MFC996

that's the way to do it. not everyone has been like lemmings to the sea. we personally refinancied from a 30 yr to a 20 yr with a locked in rate a few years back instead of buying bigger bigger bigger. which gives me more liquid to go after more 911's

RonCT

We're in a cycle, just like we've been in many times before. Remember the early 90s? Just as bad, if not worse, were the early 80s (I think unemployment was near 11%), early to mid 70s, etc. Jobs decline, then they come back, then they decline again. If not, then the Great Depression, 70s, 80s, 90s, etc. would have been the end of civilization.

As always, some day in the near future, the 90+% of the population that is gainfully employed and earning a living and saving up (because they haven't bought anything for a long time), will decide "the refrigerator (car, etc.) is dying, time to buy a new one", and that will start the cycle up again. Hopefully people have learned a lesson (they didn't last time) and not over extend.

Today is a great buying opportunity. Remember, for every terrible story about somebody losing money in the stock market, there's somebody on the other side of the transaction buying that stock and getting a great value. Unfortunately, people panic and look at paper loss and sell when they don't need to. Buy at $50 and watch it go up to $100 over time, and then it does down to $75 and they do a panic sell. In that person's mind, they lost 25% of their value, when in reality, they are still up 150%.

Here's a side story... For Christmas I wanted to buy my family a CPO Boxster S to enjoy and for my kids to DE in vs. them using my GT3 (he's 19, she's 17). I found 5 cars around the country and moved on one in TX. It sold before we could finalize negotiations. Finalized negotiations on a 2nd on in another part of TX. Waited for the paperwork and a few days later was told "sorry, sold off the floor before we could process your purchase". Found on in Orlando - great car at a great price. Worked out a deal on Friday, but on Saturday it sold to a local. Tried for one in OK, similar story - sold locally. Finally, I grabbed on in TN and the deal went through and it arrives tomorrow.

Part 2: I wanted to switch from my GT3 to a 2009 C2S - it just fits my lifestyle better right now. Within 48 hours of listing it, I had 10 prospects, 3 serious buyers, and one signed contract at asking price and a deposit. Closing happened on Monday, car gets shipped to CA tomorrow and my ordered 2009 C2S should arrive in March.

So, people are buying and selling, just like they always did. Perhaps not at the irrational inflated prices of the boom years, but for me to have lost 4 Boxster deals because I didn't move fast enough (and this was in the last 3 weeks), is telling that it's not the end of the world and that people that have money will buy if they feel the value is there.

agdamis

Ron -

I love your optimisism ,y friend. From where I am sitting these charts a re a daily thing all of them are deeper and sharper than ever before in modern history.

Your selling the GT3!!!! NO!!!!

ryangambrill

I agree with your thoughts.

I prefer to look at the cost of my home as a relative number. Values have been falling. Interest rates on mortgages are historically low. I prefer to look at the cost of my home as a relative number. Yes the values of the homes on paper is lower, but so are the mortgage rates and payments.

I am definitely going to refinance into a shorter term. At least 15 year fixed, or possibly even shorter. I view this as a great opportunity to pay my house off quicker.

I too have been searching for a 996tt or 997. But, I feel that getting the mortgages refinanced into much better rates is a top priority. Once I get through this stage, I can resume my search for the 911. I hope to have everything taken care of by spring.

It is times like these that offer the greatest long term opportunity. Boosting 401k contributions, getting better rates on mortgages, etc.

J. Brinkley

just did the same thing, 15 year fixed 4.9 about 6months ago before things got even cheaper a few weeks ago. Or was it last week?
It feels to me like February will be the best time, or possibly the end of Q1 to go for the all time low rates.
I'm no expert though.

woa, what am I doing in the 997 forum, lol

KeninBlaine

FWIW, my math suggests they are "up" 50%. Their total value is 150% of their initial investment.
Congratulations on your GT3 sale. It was well priced so I'm not surprised.