cascade

Good thoughts. My own guess is that the decline is maybe 1/3rd model transition, 1/3rd diversion of product to other geographies (e.g. Russia) and 1/3rd weak economy. Porsche's stock has been cut in half; probably starting to get interesting here. Panamera is still a risk. Maybe you buy a 1000 shares and roll the profits into a 2011 Turbo...?

richc

I read this am that VW - a Pcar company - is considering cutting back on production.

abe

I wonder how the real xpensive upper end sports cars are doing....Ferrari and others?
abe

George from MD

Largely the economy but an aging overpriced Cayenne and the overhyped 997.2 aren't helping. The non-discounting is pure BS. When I called around about a 997.2 I was readily offered discounts. While I don't know for certain I'm sure Cayennes are tens of thousands off list.

I recall buying my first brand new Porsche in 1989 when they weren't discounting either and their sales had fallen through the floor. A $50K 944S2 was in my hands for less than $35k- taxes and tags included. Five years later Porsche finally adjusted their list pricing to meet the market- as I recall (and please correct me if I'm wrong) the list price on a base 993 was $49K in 1995.

texas911

Wooohooo, fire sale!

djcxxx

Another consideration, often overlooked, is the glut of off-lease used cars in the US. In the last 10-15 years automobile companies have financed their own over production (Porsche included) by leasing (i.e. renting). Leasing is initially attractive for its ability to boost production and returns, but the market saturation, particularly w/ relatively new 2-3 year old models, eventually takes its toll on new car sales. Brand exclusivity has also been damaged at the expense of short term profits, particularly for marques such as BMW and MB, and to a lesser extent Porsche.

jcr22042

George from MD:

Actually, it's not "pure-BS". When he refers to non-discounting, he's referring to rebates and lease subsidizing offered by PCNA. They have rarely offered such over the last decade, unlike most of their peers. BMW/MB/Audi etc all have incentives on their slower selling models in the form of dealer cash and low lease money factors. Of course, the dealers are free to discount cars if they wish to, by dipping into their profit margin. Porsche is taking the right approach here by keeping production in line with demand, which protects the brand and resale values.

Minok

Based on my internal gut analysis from the types of messages I see on many of these Porsche related boards, there are a lot of P owners who change cars frequently or find them fashionable. If that is representative of the larger P car buying base, the economic difficulties (in getting loans for purchase or lease) and their own insecurities about the future, can severely crimp those types of transactions. Those folks are sitting on the sidelines waiting.

That said, the cars coming into the US are the Porsche allocation cars. P-USA allocations for this year are down.. the cars in the launch bunch are not driven by consumer demand but by corporate planning. In the US, the customer ordered cars are just now getting built or delivered, so we don't have any data yet on launch car sales as they are hardly in the showrooms yet.

Really, it seems early to be drawing any sort of conclusions. Wait until the end of the year, when all the main models are in the showrooms and customer cars have been delivered for a bit and then see where we stand.

KBS911

Scary thing is that this is the tip of the iceberg. Even Toyota sales were down 30%+ according to yesterday's news. Glad I got the deal on my 08. A Porsche is a purely discretionary purchase and lots of folks may "just hold on to what they've got" for the short term.

Likemystoppie?

Let's put it this way. Soon, Ferrari dealerships will have to 'actually' employ REAL Sales People.

Not the dip**** order takers of the past.


Ferrari's are sitting on lot's.

PeterC4

[QUOTE=Minok;5865462]Based on my internal gut analysis from the types of messages I see on many of these Porsche related boards, there are a lot of P owners who change cars frequently or find them fashionable. If that is representative of the larger P car buying base, the economic difficulties (in getting loans for purchase or lease) and their own insecurities about the future, can severely crimp those types of transactions. Those folks are sitting on the sidelines waiting.

QUOTE]

The P car owners I know actually own the cars, that is they pay cash. Most of them are financial professionals - lawyers, investment bankers etc. They sure are sitting on the sidelines all right. But they aren't waiting for a new car. They're looking for a new job.

Bob in NY

I visited my local Porsche dealer last Saturday at 2 o'clock in the afternoon and it was DEAD. My daughter and I were the only people in the dealership for the 30 min or so we were there. I think it's the economy that's impacting all premium or luxury goods sales.

lgascoig

It will be interesting to see. My car is supposed to hit San Diego around October 6th and they're guessing it will be up here and ready Oct 11-18th.

My guess is that my local dealer will be doing fine, although they seem to have quite a bit of 2008 inventory left. I think in terms of bargains they'll be pushing these. The best bargain I was able to negotiate was $2500 off MSRP but that was a couple months ago. We'll see how it goes now that I have to actually sign papers and pay for it.

nyca

It's going to get worse. You are going to see alot of P dealers, the weaker hands, going under. This is a pure pleasure car purchase, no "need for transportation" factor in it at all.

MFC996

Aye, very true. It's already happening here in Ohio.