A friend got an insurance quote for $5000 on the C6. He was paying $2000 for his 2003 BMW M3.

Probably it cost the same to own that $50k car at the end or even more.

 

I doubt it.

First of all, I think the current horsepower and performance wars and largely a fad, in lock-step with social moods at the end of a long economic up cycle. The economy's deteriorating again and the middle class is unlikely to be able to afford this kind of excess, and thus it will become socially unacceptable. Like SUVs are becoming.

Second, Porsche is likely at some kind of peak of success. The Cayenne had taken the company away from racing and sports cars, and that's not good for the company long-term. Porsche is eventually going to revert to the mean, as a quality niche player for enthusiasts with money. That's where it will be in ten years, with or without a buyout.

As for Cadillac, the big V-8 is getting technologically long in the tooth, and Cadillac is more about luxury than about performance. Getting the kind of high-volume sales GM wants on a sales pitch of lap times is dubious, at best. More likely they'll abandon this ego-driven push for respectability at some point in the future, and get back to building luxurious cars with quiet power under the hood...although not as floaty as they became in the 70s and 80s.

Corvette? Will continue to improve, as long as they make it. But will they ever build an $80,000 Corvette with the quality and customization, let alone rear-engine and durability and quirks of a Porsche? Not GM, IMO. Why would they be so stupid? They're a volume-driven Fortune 500 company.

As for Audi, they own Lamborghini already and have done a great job reviving the brand, especially quality. The Audi supercars are redundant, and likely will go the way of the dinosaurs. The supercar market is far too crowded now and there will be a shakeout.

 

Porsche's biggest problem is the euro. the dollar exchange rate is likely to decline, not sure how Porsche is going to make up for that. The 911 is already pricey, and they want to sell it in too many numbers for them to hug the demand curve like Ferrari or Bentley. To be honest, Porsche should have opened a plant in the US years ago - since so much of their sales are here.

 

I don't know if porsche does this, but if porsche hedges against a declining dollar, the decline can (even long term) be positive for their over all bottom line. I believe many international companies do this.

ehe....I just googled...porsche does do this:

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news...&refer=germany

 

Thanks for the link. Looks like Porsche focuses on options. It's not clear how well they understand the hedging game, and they won't disclose their hedge book. I doubt they have any ticking time bombs (e.g. writing puts on their own stock, a la Enron), but if the USD rallies, they may be positioned to lose the entire value of their premiums.

I agree with Nyca that the Euro is a risk. A long-term weak dollar can't be overcome with hedges, per se, because options only work if there's volatility. They could get into call and put writing, but this is risky, to say the least.

A factory in the US is a great idea. With the Euro where it is, it might look cheap to the Germans, too. Question would be could they maintain quality with supplies and production. I bet in the long run they could, or at least get close.

 

Speed: I guess it depends what you mean by long term ;-)

I think the US factory is a good idea if they move their lower end models there (Peppers/Boxsters) That way it doesn't impact me *grin*

Seriously, when people buy a $80k+ car they will know where it comes from. I think it will lose some if the charm if your porsche is no longer on a boat but on a truck and instead of a Eur. delivery it is Texas.

 

Billy Bob: Yep, well long-term expires with the first production run. It's either right or it's not. Guess I was saying people would tolerate a gap in quality, as they do already with the Boxster (most built in Finland) versus the 911 series. At least that's how I see the difference. I know some might disagree.

So that makes your point. The US factory would need to be the more price-sensitive Boxster. I'm with ya, except in the back of my mind I was also thinking about the Cayenne. Mercedes builds its M-class in the States and I think the Cayenne is a different market -- more interested in the Porsche badge than the Porsche pedigree. So a US-built Cayenne would fly. Not sure they'd want to give up their Cayenne factory, though, having just built it.

 

Texas might qualify as a foreign country. Here in Alabama, where MB builds the M class (& others have built factories), we are quite proud of "our own little corner of the 3rd world in the USA", where manpower, operational, & land costs are low - investment capital goes a long way. Some decent test tracks, too.

Bruce Anderson has remarked that the Finish Boxsters are just as well built as the German ones, he's been to both factories & has driven many examples. Seriously, if PAG ever built in the Western Hemi, I suspect it would be in conjunction w/ a major partner, ala the Cayenne. Relationship w/ VW points to Mexico or SA. Maybe that's how we'd see a future "entry level Porsche"?

 

Speed: Pepper = Cayenne (so I was thinking both the Cayenne and Boxter)

I believe (though I am not an expert) that you can hedge against currency fluxuations long term (3-5 years). You can have contracts that can be exercised every year. If you believe that currencies are long term a zero sum game, then building factories becomes less important esp. if it detracts from your brand.

http://www.ssga.com/library/esps/ant...ging/page.html

 

interesting article on the hedging. they can't ride that wave forever - at some point that have to be more car company, and less of an arbitrage operation!

they should be making some cars in the US - there is no reason why a US workforce could not assemble a quality car engineered in Germany.

 

That makes sense from a business standpoint, but it could cause further damage to the "Porsche" mythos. Most people assume that Porsches are still all made in Germany, even thought that is no longer true. If they start making them in the South, then the reputation might be further tarnished, although I am certain that you are right about the reality of the comparative quality.