ADias

Good luck with that!


And to make the wish list complete... why not fully recharge in 5 min or less, and do that without any battery deterioration.

Fined

Well.. to be fair, folks had that same view about disk storage, random access memory, computing power, chip size, and data access rates within my lifetime... and now here we are. My cell phone is as powerful as about 15 - 20 of my first computer.. but costs less than it did and will run on its batteries for 5 days and doesn't require active cooling. So I dont doubt the wish list will be a reality, possibly even while I'm still able to drive a car.

ADias

Unfortunately Moore's Law (which benefited you in electronics) does not apply to batteries. One needs a quantum leap in battery technology to see significant improvements. The current battery technology will slowly improve but not bu orders of magnitude.

And that is not the only issue... Right now when a tiny minority charges EV batteries all is well. Now convert the whole US vehicle fleet to electric and tell me where the source of electrical energy is and its transport grid?

Steph1

I was hoping that those fugly headlights were just somekind of camouflage on the concept car. Can't believe they weren't a joke and the real thing. Especially after all the criticism they got 22 years ago for the 996, they managed to do it again.

I was really hoping that they would be more like the 991.

On the subject, people looking to spend a fortune on a Taycan, certainly won't be considering a 997 as an alternative. With that kind of money, they'll be looking for something else I'm sure. Therefore the value of the 997 won't be affected by the Taycan.

If one new car affects the 997, I believe it will be the new Corvette C8. Why, cause a whole lot of Fanatics are now looking to sell their C7 at a loss, to be able to get a C8 asap.

So those bargain C7 will most likely be playing into 997 price territory, whose value might take a dive because of that.

alexb76

Exactly, issue is NO ONE for over 50yrs has found a BETTER Battery technology to have a higher energy density! It's not even remotely close. Having said that. I think the government meddling in the industry, subsidies paid, carbon taxes raising gas prices, and social shaming by idiots who think they're saving the environment mining Lithium out of Bolivia... the transition will happen slowly but surely. Our cars, and specially limited edition ones, will ONLY go up in Value... as you simply couldn't enjoy a manual, mechanical, sounding great car in the future!

alexb76

Exactly.. here's energy density of different sources!

ADias

For those who think the EVs are simple and with low maintenance I suggest diving into this article

An Extremely Detailed Look At The Porsche Taycan's Engineering Designed To Take On Tesla

and be prepared to open their wallets to take care of EV maintenance costs. You will be replacing large inverter modules, complex cooling components, clutches and more.

SpeedyD

We all know how well other complex, battery critical, devices last - lol.

Ipad, iphones, etc etc. Software reliability, stability, etc in any modern device is pretty pathetic. Redundancies help, but for long term keepers the “old” ICE tech will last a lot longer (years, not necessarily mileage) than a Tesla or Taycan etc.

As for EV growth, the grid is not going to support significant EV charging volume at economical prices for the next 50+ years. Just wait to see charging costs vs gasoline prices once the utilities start mass investing (and earning their income off their new ratebases)... goodbye economies of EV (not that it currently exists ex-subsidies).

All that said, we do need a solution to pollution so I hope developments catch up to support real growth. Right now, even factoring in investments, it looks like people aren’t appreciating how much this will all cost to get going correctly.

As for 997 values - the 997 and 993 will remain coveted... value increases? Meh wont be material enough to care for a longgg time but of course I expect nice cars will continue to appreciate as the curve bottom (ignoring recessions) has already been hit a few years ago.

snaphappy

I’m imagining a world 10 years from now where everyone is driving an electric car. There’s a guy in that world that sits in his electric car every day on a long commute. On the weekends he’s going to want to drive something with a real engine. Something that reminds him of his youth - when there were no electric cars. He’ll have a lot of classics to choose from...ranging from 1920-2020. But if he decides to buy a Porsche there are a lot of reasons he might choose a 997. Probably all the same reasons we picked the 997 😂 That’s why I think 997 prices will continue to climb, albeit slowly.

But since I have a 997 now, I wouldn’t be surprised if the prices plummeted 🤦*♂️ Sometimes I have bad luck like that 😂

SpeedyD

If everyone (or even just 50% of folks) have electric cars in 10 years, I imagine a world of year-round rolling brownouts and blackouts, mileage and charging limitations (software controlled from central monitoring stations) that will restrict when people can drive "their" vehicles so as to avoid electric grid shutdown. Additional special taxes assessed to cover "necessary" power grid and delivery system upgrades, and massive tax incentives (and related increases elsewhere) to plaster solar panels everywhere. The choice of how much, when and where you can drive will be easily controlled via software, and google will gather tons (more) information on your habits so they can optimize your charge point locations and timing. I don't think I would be thinking about my 997 all that much in that sort of scenario lol.

It won't happen but that is what a 10 year time horizon to 50% of the total fleet converting to electric would look like.

Much like estimates from as recent as two or three years ago that fully autonomous vehicles would be deployed by 2025 now looks more like 2035-2050 (and that is ambitious) the estimates for electric conversion are way off. Moore's law does not apply beyond chips really (and really doesn't apply anymore there either), and if you look at other tech progress, it has been pretty slow. Remember popular mechanics/popular science prognostications about flying cars (1920s/1960s) or robots doing household chores?

To give a sense of the challenges of even a small percentage of the total fleet being EV: https://www.forbes.com/sites/constan.../#1fe989544e17

What is also not really considered yet is what happens as charging speeds get faster (necessary for widespread adoption) will put much higher strains on load curves.

snaphappy

Wow. I never thought about the consequences of mass adoption. Pretty scary. I have thought about power outages during bad weather - how does one go to work?

But overall, I think everything will go electric sooner or later

Steph1

Not sure it has been mentioned, but Electricity prices will also skyrocket once the companies know that there's no turning back and people are really taken hostage.

dashanin

I'm not sure about this conclusion. If (and when) 911 goes electric or plug-in then we will definitely see an uptick in 997 values. Until that happens, its the same fundamentals that will drive the market such as condition, mileage, maintenance history and spec. But depreciation curve is getting flatter and in another 3-5 years values might start coming up. It will be interesting for sure. Cheers!

Tcc1999

Maybe this could happen, but electricity prices typiclly need to be approved by a public utilities commission - and positions are appointed or elected. If you think about it, a savvy pol, with a stressed grid might run on a chicken in every pot and a cheap car charger in every garage. An eternal optimist, however, might argue that our political leaders would forsee such a stress on the electrical grid, do their job for The People, and make timely decisions to avoid it - but history suggests the cart usually leads the horse when it comes to pols doing what is best for those they represent. Of course, this whole discussion could be another take on The Malthusian Argument.

SpeedyD

Utilities are regulated but the process (in theory under dubious assumption that there is a major uptake of electric cars resulting in 25%+ of all cars on road being electric) would look like this:
+ recognition that grid cant handle mass of EVs and related load profile
+ utilities proposing $XXX billion of requires capital investment to avoid brownout scenarios in near future
— result = massive required increases in energy bills approved off the increased rate bases (utilities allowed to earn a certain range of return on capital investment, driving their ability to adjust customer pricing)
— ALL electrical costs increase
— Depending on political/regulatory climate, restarting of coal plants to help defray otherwise massive cost increases of over utilizing peaker plants
+ OEMs propose solutions such as partnerships with utilities to allow info sharing to optimize load usage
— Software and network monitoring that allows throttling of charging and of course optimized time of day pricing
— New subscription models for EV owners vs non owners for decentralized battery storage? Mandatory two way EV electrical charging and deployment of energy back into grid?
— Anything mandatory of course will result in massive costs somehow placed on consumers/taxpayers

Lots of other knock on effects. I think some folks underestimate how big an infrastructure adjustment is needed to support something like this in the United States... Doable for sure, but if done very quickly it will have massive costs that will go well beyond EV direct market participants.

Just my 2 cents