What is too much $$ for a 996TT?
05-23-2017, 07:46 PM
#32
RL Community Team
Rennlist Member
Rennlist Member
And you would be walking home with $55k in your pocket.
Take look at the actual sale prices of these cars at auction. The market direction is clear.
https://rennlist.com/forums/996-turb...ket-finds.html
Take look at the actual sale prices of these cars at auction. The market direction is clear.
https://rennlist.com/forums/996-turb...ket-finds.html
05-23-2017, 07:50 PM
#33
Rennlist Member
Collectibility is of course in the eye of the beholder.
Within the "relatively modern" BMW universe, with which I am much more familiar than the Porsche one, the 1M, made only in 2011, had total sales numbers in N. America of less than 1000, coupes only, 740 of which were sold in the USA. The Z3M Coupe (often referred to as the "clownshoe"), had less than 3000 sold in N.A; there was also the Z3 Coupe, of which about 2000 were sold.
The E46 M3, on the other hand, had about 26,000 examples sold in NA in coupe form, and close to 18,000 in convertible form.
The first 2 are considered "collectible," on account or rarity, the latter, albeit a fine car, is not (let's not get into the SMG transmission issue, examples of which contained in these total numbers would not meet my definition of a "fine" car).
The 911, 996 Porsche Turbo, had approximately 6600 coupes and about 2550 cabs sold in the USA during the production run of years 2001 through 2005. The 2004 and 2005 coupes are the rarest during the run.
My personal opinion is that rarity is what drives prices and collectibility in cars; it certainly is what I have observed in the used, fine, German car market as long as I have been following it.
None of this has anything whatever to do with desirability, quality, enjoyment or pride of ownership.
Therefore, stating that I am "100%" incorrect is certainly a 100% incorrect statement, itself :-)
Within the "relatively modern" BMW universe, with which I am much more familiar than the Porsche one, the 1M, made only in 2011, had total sales numbers in N. America of less than 1000, coupes only, 740 of which were sold in the USA. The Z3M Coupe (often referred to as the "clownshoe"), had less than 3000 sold in N.A; there was also the Z3 Coupe, of which about 2000 were sold.
The E46 M3, on the other hand, had about 26,000 examples sold in NA in coupe form, and close to 18,000 in convertible form.
The first 2 are considered "collectible," on account or rarity, the latter, albeit a fine car, is not (let's not get into the SMG transmission issue, examples of which contained in these total numbers would not meet my definition of a "fine" car).
The 911, 996 Porsche Turbo, had approximately 6600 coupes and about 2550 cabs sold in the USA during the production run of years 2001 through 2005. The 2004 and 2005 coupes are the rarest during the run.
My personal opinion is that rarity is what drives prices and collectibility in cars; it certainly is what I have observed in the used, fine, German car market as long as I have been following it.
None of this has anything whatever to do with desirability, quality, enjoyment or pride of ownership.
Therefore, stating that I am "100%" incorrect is certainly a 100% incorrect statement, itself :-)
It's the "the 996 TT will never be considered 'collectible'" and depreciating as it "becomes further dated" that is clearly false. Prices have been on the rise for a couple years.
05-23-2017, 07:52 PM
#34
RL Community Team
Rennlist Member
Rennlist Member
The right question is, do value the low mileage so much that you'd be willing to pay $30k premium over a car with 4 x the miles? And that's a completely subjective answer. Me personally I'd take a well documented and cared for 50k mile car for $50k over a 12k mile one for $80k any day of the week.
Hell, you could pick up a driver-quality SC Targa with the price difference... How cool is that.
Hell, you could pick up a driver-quality SC Targa with the price difference... How cool is that.
But if you are serious collector you want an ultra low milage car that you are going store away and keep ultra low mileage. In the near future the ultra low milage car will be worth double or near triple the car that has been driven.
05-23-2017, 07:53 PM
#35
RL Community Team
Rennlist Member
Rennlist Member
I don't think anyone is refuting the fact that scarcity increases prices and collectibility.
It's the "the 996 TT will never be considered 'collectible'" and depreciating as it "becomes further dated" that is clearly false. Prices have been on the rise for a couple years.
It's the "the 996 TT will never be considered 'collectible'" and depreciating as it "becomes further dated" that is clearly false. Prices have been on the rise for a couple years.
05-23-2017, 08:03 PM
#37
Rennlist Member
Here are actual ebay prices for auctions where the cars actually sold...all 996tt as of today. Again not asking prices but actual sales prices and mileage.
2002 $36.7k 46k mi
2002 $34k 60k mi
2001 $36.6k 47k mi
2001 $29k 126k mi
2001 $29k 78k mi
2004 $40k 72k mi
2004 $35k 93k mi
2002 $46k 51k mi
2004 $56k 29k mi
2004 $50k 23k mi
2004 $52k 24k mi
2001 $27k 123k mi
2003 $39k 86k mi
2004 $53k (best offer accepted below this) 13k mi
2001 $39.5k 74k mi
2004 $33k 73k mi
2005 $58k (best offer accepted below this) 9k mi
2004 $30k (best offer accepted below this) 114k mi
2004 $46k 78k mi
2004 $35k 80k mi
2001 $39k 27k mi
2002 $36.7k 46k mi
2002 $34k 60k mi
2001 $36.6k 47k mi
2001 $29k 126k mi
2001 $29k 78k mi
2004 $40k 72k mi
2004 $35k 93k mi
2002 $46k 51k mi
2004 $56k 29k mi
2004 $50k 23k mi
2004 $52k 24k mi
2001 $27k 123k mi
2003 $39k 86k mi
2004 $53k (best offer accepted below this) 13k mi
2001 $39.5k 74k mi
2004 $33k 73k mi
2005 $58k (best offer accepted below this) 9k mi
2004 $30k (best offer accepted below this) 114k mi
2004 $46k 78k mi
2004 $35k 80k mi
2001 $39k 27k mi
05-23-2017, 08:07 PM
#38
Rennlist Member
When are those from, though?
05-23-2017, 08:07 PM
#39
When you look at ebay to research prices, do not look at the ongoing auctions. Scroll down the left side of the page and click where it says "items that have sold." Not auctions that have ended, but items that have actually sold. Those are the real prices. I used that method for 993 C2 coupes and it was quite an eye opener. Only few 993s sold for the urban myth prices being tossed around. Most sold for under $37k and averaged about $33k.
Also, don't put any stock in the purported "ebay automobile buyers protection program." There are more holes in that "program" than there are in a wheel of Swiss cheese.
If the car isn't overly rare (996 TT fits that description), then you can depend to some extent on the various internet pricing engines, such as NADA, KBB, Edmunds, and even the price estimate you get when you pull up a Carfax. You can also look some 2nd hand and Porsche line dealers' prices, and subtract some for "negotiating room."
Probably the best approach is to use all of the information you can get your hands on, follow a bunch of sales listings, and try to figure out actual sales prices. If a car goes up at $65K and sits and sits and sits, and the seller keeps "bumping" his thread to the top, taking a thousand off here and there, you know the price is too high for the market. If a car sells in a day, you likewise know that it was extremely well priced or under-priced.
There was relatively low mileage 996 TT with about 33K miles on it posted on the sales listings here at $50K; the seller told me he was going to keep it if he couldn't get $47.5K for it, but he sold it for $45K. It was in great shape physically but proved to have some mechanical issues that would have cost several thousand to fix. This was about 2 months ago. The car was guards red with a light interior, very desirable combination in my view. It took more than a month to sell at the $45K price, and was located in the Bay Area. Taking that as an example of a lower mileage 996 TT, I think you are hard pressed to come up with more than $50K for a 996 TT with reasonably low mileage. If you go down to a car that genuinely was not driven, and has 12,000 miles or somesuch, I think you are hard pressed to come up with a value $30K higher than that one, that again, languished here for a month without selling.
Finally, 997 Turbos obviously exist also, are newer, tend to have lower mileage, and are available for sale. One could argue that the 997 Turbo is more desirable than the 996. I would be very hard pressed to pay a price for a 996 Turbo that was more than many 997 Turbos sell for, and $80K is above the selling price of a number of 997 Turbos I have seen sell here.
05-23-2017, 08:18 PM
#40
Rennlist Member
I would be very cautious about using supposed sales prices on ebay to value cars. For one thing, quite a few that are "sold" don't actually "close" in the sense that the buyer pays for the car and the title is signed over. This can be due to either buyer default or seller default (misrepresentation, among other things).
Also, don't put any stock in the purported "ebay automobile buyers protection program." There are more holes in that "program" than there are in a wheel of Swiss cheese.
Also, don't put any stock in the purported "ebay automobile buyers protection program." There are more holes in that "program" than there are in a wheel of Swiss cheese.
If the car isn't overly rare (996 TT fits that description), then you can depend to some extent on the various internet pricing engines, such as NADA, KBB, Edmunds, and even the price estimate you get when you pull up a Carfax. You can also look some 2nd hand and Porsche line dealers' prices, and subtract some for "negotiating room."
Probably the best approach is to use all of the information you can get your hands on, follow a bunch of sales listings, and try to figure out actual sales prices. If a car goes up at $65K and sits and sits and sits, and the seller keeps "bumping" his thread to the top, taking a thousand off here and there, you know the price is too high for the market. If a car sells in a day, you likewise know that it was extremely well priced or under-priced.
There was relatively low mileage 996 TT with about 33K miles on it posted on the sales listings here at $50K; the seller told me he was going to keep it if he couldn't get $47.5K for it, but he sold it for $45K. It was in great shape physically but proved to have some mechanical issues that would have cost several thousand to fix. This was about 2 months ago. The car was guards red with a light interior, very desirable combination in my view. It took more than a month to sell at the $45K price, and was located in the Bay Area. Taking that as an example of a lower mileage 996 TT, I think you are hard pressed to come up with more than $50K for a 996 TT with reasonably low mileage. If you go down to a car that genuinely was not driven, and has 12,000 miles or somesuch, I think you are hard pressed to come up with a value $30K higher than that one, that again, languished here for a month without selling.
I would also posit that the eBay cars are generally not in the same league as the nicer cars you see posted on the enthusiast forums, low mileage or not.
Finally, 997 Turbos obviously exist also, are newer, tend to have lower mileage, and are available for sale. One could argue that the 997 Turbo is more desirable than the 996. I would be very hard pressed to pay a price for a 996 Turbo that was more than many 997 Turbos sell for, and $80K is above the selling price of a number of 997 Turbos I have seen sell here.
05-23-2017, 08:20 PM
#41
Here are actual ebay prices for auctions where the cars actually sold...all 996tt as of today. Again not asking prices but actual sales prices and mileage.
2002 $36.7k 46k mi
2002 $34k 60k mi
2001 $36.6k 47k mi
2001 $29k 126k mi
2001 $29k 78k mi
2004 $40k 72k mi
2004 $35k 93k mi
2002 $46k 51k mi
2004 $56k 29k mi
2004 $50k 23k mi
2004 $52k 24k mi
2001 $27k 123k mi
2003 $39k 86k mi
2004 $53k (best offer accepted below this) 13k mi
2001 $39.5k 74k mi
2004 $33k 73k mi
2005 $58k (best offer accepted below this) 9k mi
2004 $30k (best offer accepted below this) 114k mi
2004 $46k 78k mi
2004 $35k 80k mi
2001 $39k 27k mi
2002 $36.7k 46k mi
2002 $34k 60k mi
2001 $36.6k 47k mi
2001 $29k 126k mi
2001 $29k 78k mi
2004 $40k 72k mi
2004 $35k 93k mi
2002 $46k 51k mi
2004 $56k 29k mi
2004 $50k 23k mi
2004 $52k 24k mi
2001 $27k 123k mi
2003 $39k 86k mi
2004 $53k (best offer accepted below this) 13k mi
2001 $39.5k 74k mi
2004 $33k 73k mi
2005 $58k (best offer accepted below this) 9k mi
2004 $30k (best offer accepted below this) 114k mi
2004 $46k 78k mi
2004 $35k 80k mi
2001 $39k 27k mi
The above data is certainly better than NO data, but it is extremely limited in value. Assuming that the data is accurate, that the sales actually closed and title was transferred, one still doesn't know how representative those sales were of the broader market, and one absolutely does not know the condition of the cars themselves. I can see the same car, with the same age and the same mileage selling for a spread of $15 or even $20,000 based upon the physical and mechanical condition of the vehicle.
Assuming that the cosmetic condition were the same, I would pay considerably more for a "mechanically restored" 996 Turbo with 75,000 miles on it with brand new tires, than I would for one having 50,000 miles on it, needing major expensive repairs, and bald tires.
In fact, I just did.
05-23-2017, 08:21 PM
#42
Drifting
^^^^ I totally agree with you which is why I would be very hardpressed to pay more for a 993TT than I would for a 996TT.
The 996TT is newer, will tend to have less mileage, no one will argue that its not the better car by a country mile, and there's a few 996TTs for sale.
/thread?
The 996TT is newer, will tend to have less mileage, no one will argue that its not the better car by a country mile, and there's a few 996TTs for sale.
/thread?
05-23-2017, 08:27 PM
#43
Agreed on those points.
Once again, it's not about whether the car is "overly rare" -- it's about what the market will pay for it. If the demand exceeds the supply (which is the case for pedigreed 996TT's), prices go up. You are way off on thinking that NADA, KBB, and Edmunds are an accurate valuation of these cars. Even factoring in negotiating room, dealers are clearly pricing the cars much higher than that.
That's kind of stating the obvious. It could also mean that the market for $65k+ 996TT's just isn't that big/liquid (which is obviously the case).
As has already been mentioned, if you're looking for a driver, don't buy one with 12k miles. But for true collectors, the difference between a 12k ("low") mile car and 33k ("relatively low") mile car is huge.
I would also posit that the eBay cars are generally not in the same league as the nicer cars you see posted on the enthusiast forums, low mileage or not.
Once again, it's not about whether the car is "overly rare" -- it's about what the market will pay for it. If the demand exceeds the supply (which is the case for pedigreed 996TT's), prices go up. You are way off on thinking that NADA, KBB, and Edmunds are an accurate valuation of these cars. Even factoring in negotiating room, dealers are clearly pricing the cars much higher than that.
That's kind of stating the obvious. It could also mean that the market for $65k+ 996TT's just isn't that big/liquid (which is obviously the case).
As has already been mentioned, if you're looking for a driver, don't buy one with 12k miles. But for true collectors, the difference between a 12k ("low") mile car and 33k ("relatively low") mile car is huge.
I would also posit that the eBay cars are generally not in the same league as the nicer cars you see posted on the enthusiast forums, low mileage or not.
People posting on this forum or elsewhere that they would pay XXX for (whatever it is) or that they would do XXXX if given a choice, or whatever, is just a bunch of words and bytes on a server somewhere. The only thing that really counts at all is action, the act of actually doing something, be it paying for something or whatever.
So, personally speaking, I'm unconvinced to read anyone posting about what they WOULD do. Show me that the car sold for that price; then I will believe it, otherwise, I believe that NADA, KBB, Edmunds, the insurance companies, all have more actual data than anyone posting on this thread can hope to have.
05-23-2017, 08:31 PM
#44
Rennlist Member
When did you pick up your '03?
I'm speaking from my experience of watching the market over the last couple of years, and trying to find a clean driver for myself. I ended up paying $48k for a clean 38k-mile '02 towards the end of last year. I would have happily paid less for a comparable car, if I could have found one. I believe KBB valued my car in the high 30's, last I looked.
If the car is "reappearing elsewhere" -- how do you think that happens?
I'm speaking from my experience of watching the market over the last couple of years, and trying to find a clean driver for myself. I ended up paying $48k for a clean 38k-mile '02 towards the end of last year. I would have happily paid less for a comparable car, if I could have found one. I believe KBB valued my car in the high 30's, last I looked.
If the car is "reappearing elsewhere" -- how do you think that happens?
05-23-2017, 08:31 PM
#45
Burning Brakes
I believe a similar 996TT brought over $70K from the same dealer. It was Speed Yellow, similarly equipped & similar miles.
So don't underestimate the market. People coming into the 996TT world may have been 'calibrated' by Ferraris and other cars offering less for far more.
So don't underestimate the market. People coming into the 996TT world may have been 'calibrated' by Ferraris and other cars offering less for far more.