Hi,

A friend is looking to sell or trade in his Midnight blue 2003 Turbo Coupe, X50, w/ PCCB, 50,000 miles, and blk interior. Well kept, but no garage queen. Would appreciate your input on street value and/or porsche/ferrari trade in (he's thinking a 612 or 997.2 turbo). He asked me what I thought it was worth, but as I'm a 993 guy I said let me talk w/ the experts.....Thoughts??

Thanks,

Marco

 

Pop it in my pricing calculator assuming no warranty predicts a sale price of $45,100. I improved my calculator recently to make the effect of age smoother. Now it calculates the marginal effect of a day, and assumes all cars were produced on June 30th of their model year and takes the age to today. Model based on 100 transactions found in 6-speedonline's pricing thread. R-squared of 86%.

 

Hi Bryce,
Not sure if that is tongue in cheek or if you have created a complex spreadsheet. If the latter, wow, that's very cool. Thank you for your input.

 

Marco, check out my my comments in your thread over in the 996 forum.

 

Not tongue-in-cheek. I did an analysis of the 100 sales in the 6-speed thread and accounted for 80ish% of the variance in sales price with just a handful of variables. The model does not perform well for aging cars (2001-2 in the coming years since the relationship with age probably bottoms out at some point) and high mileage cars (the effect also bottoms out).

 

So Bryce, did you just use multiple (defined) data points and plot a linear regression line based on this? As a stats guy (college professor) myself I would be interested in your methodology.

 

is ceramic brakes a help or a hindrance in a sale due to the high cost of replacing/repairing them? I know its not something I would consider getting for mostly non track usage.

 

I used Bryce's formula when I was shopping - struck price was pretty close to projected price.

For trade-in, I would imagine that a dealer would offer low 40s maybe even high 30s.

Retail, $45K-$50K is the ballpark IMO.

 

That car should get mid 40's easy, closer to 50.

 

If they are in good condition (i.e., no chips, cracks) and the car is not going to be a a track car, then they are a plus.

 

LVDell, yes it was a linear OLS model. I built it in the standard way, trying squared terms and interactions and removing things that didn't matter. We didn't have a lot of options information, but I did model the financial crisis as a fixed effect since credit was harder to get (and still is).

For the truly nerdy:

 

Wow, looks good. Looks like you had a fair number of data points. As would be expected, the drivers will always be miles and age. While x50 does drive the price, I'm not sure what the sample of x50 sales would do to the value. Did you weight any of the variables?

Would be nice is there was a way to capture a "maintenance" variable coded from say 0-100. It would be hard though to get that data from buyers/sellers unless you wanted to invest the time to create some metric to measure it. The rubric would be easy to create but the collection would be a PITA! Personally, I know that was a huge selling point for me.

A good and healthy r squared value as well. Good line approximation

Thanks for posting!