OT.....Poll: How is the economy by you???
06-16-2011, 01:26 AM
#16
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wow, so additional taxes are the answer?
I would propose that, rather than "the money has to come from somewhere", government spending and programs have to stop somewhere. Private is, with rare exception, more efficient than publicly funded. More government is not the answer, IMHO.
to the original question: in my world, things are busier than ever. Tech sector has picked up, services (and therefore labor) demand is starting to outpace supply.
The Porsche mod and service business hasn't missed a beat... at least not from where I sit.
To the OP... you can't stop these sort of topics from going politcal but I admire your optimism!
I would propose that, rather than "the money has to come from somewhere", government spending and programs have to stop somewhere. Private is, with rare exception, more efficient than publicly funded. More government is not the answer, IMHO.
to the original question: in my world, things are busier than ever. Tech sector has picked up, services (and therefore labor) demand is starting to outpace supply.
The Porsche mod and service business hasn't missed a beat... at least not from where I sit.
To the OP... you can't stop these sort of topics from going politcal but I admire your optimism!
06-16-2011, 01:33 AM
#17
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Our business is pro motorsports and aerospace / aircraft composite structures. The racing side has taken a huge beating but we are busting at the seams with aerospace composite work. So much so we are removing our rolling road wind tunnel (one of three in the states) and installing two more autoclaves, one being a huge 10x30! Just trying to roll with the changes.
I hope the demand keeps up and also hope the motorsport side of the business picks up.
What I worry about is the large scale chatter of late about an upcoming market crash and not really sure how prepared wifey and I are for it.
I hope the demand keeps up and also hope the motorsport side of the business picks up.
What I worry about is the large scale chatter of late about an upcoming market crash and not really sure how prepared wifey and I are for it.
06-16-2011, 01:41 AM
#18
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I am not even sure that the US wants to be a global police force. The cynical side of me says that folks like Cheney know that any kind of shooting war will transfer immense wealth to the defense sector. If they can prolong the process with a re-build (ala Marshal Plan re dux) even more wealth will flow.
The US has no history of watching Pentagon-related spending. That makes wealth transfer even that much easier. A LOT of people got VERY rich because of these wars/rebuilds (read Black Water). They know well enough to keep very low profiles.
The sad part is that in the U.S. today, these spreading the wealth occurs in virtually everything the country does, from defense, to health-care, to financial bail outs, to DOE grants, to infrastructure. Small wonders that we are totally broke.
CP
The US has no history of watching Pentagon-related spending. That makes wealth transfer even that much easier. A LOT of people got VERY rich because of these wars/rebuilds (read Black Water). They know well enough to keep very low profiles.
The sad part is that in the U.S. today, these spreading the wealth occurs in virtually everything the country does, from defense, to health-care, to financial bail outs, to DOE grants, to infrastructure. Small wonders that we are totally broke.
CP
wow, so additional taxes are the answer?
I would propose that, rather than "the money has to come from somewhere", government spending and programs have to stop somewhere. Private is, with rare exception, more efficient than publicly funded. More government is not the answer, IMHO.
To the OP... you can't stop these sort of topics from going politcal but I admire your optimism!
This seems to be headed for the OT forum
I would propose that, rather than "the money has to come from somewhere", government spending and programs have to stop somewhere. Private is, with rare exception, more efficient than publicly funded. More government is not the answer, IMHO.
To the OP... you can't stop these sort of topics from going politcal but I admire your optimism!
This seems to be headed for the OT forum
Private industry is more efficient IF AND ONLY IF the industry is perfectly competitive, which means:
- low barriers to entry (easy to start a business and compete)
- low market power (no real dominant players, or dominance is temporary, no company is 'too big to fail')
- lots of firms/players in the industry
If you don't have these conditions, the industry is NOT efficient or competitive. But monopolistic or oligopolistic (i.e. there is collusion, either directly or indirectly, which causes prices to consumers to be artificially high). When you have relatively few players who make up most of the market in an industry, you don't have an efficient market.
And this describes all the industries that Tea Partiers and Republicans want to privatize in the name of so-called efficiency. Except they don't know a thing about basic economics. They hate government spending, and they hate regulation.
I do agree that government needs to control spending.
But if these industries that want to remain private or want to further privatize -- like education, healthcare, energy, financial services, media (all industries that are not competitive, but are oligopolistic), in return they need to be more heavily regulated. Or else there is huge incentives to abuse market power which will escalate costs more than if it were "publicly funded". And that's precisely what's happened. HMOs behaving badly started when Nixon loosed up regulation considerably. Enron screwing California and other energy shenanigans when government privatized energy but with little regulation. Loosening regulation on financial institutions is a big part of the credit/housing bubble and its aftermath (banks behaving badly, which the taxpayer pays for), media companies merging into bigger and bigger entities, and trying to tear down the FTC.
So that's the deal. Either government provides publicly funded options in these industries (like education and healthcare), or if it's 100% privatized, they better be more heavily regulated to manage costs and price controls. It's one or the other.
But if we continue to cut government spending AND further deregulate industries like the Repubs and Tea Partiers wish for, things are going to get worse, not better. You'll get more market failures across these industries, and more "too big to fail" situations where the taxpayer ends up paying for anyhow.
06-16-2011, 01:44 AM
#19
Took a big hit late 08, and has been flat ever since. Even inspite of have some record numbers in some sectors of our business we had to rethink alot of our business model. Every time things start looking up for a month or two they fall right back inches below where we were. Projections have alot to do with what the goverment does. If they follow the Canadia model business will be good with strong growth in 4-7 yrs. If we continue down the current path it's a slowly sinking ship. A lot of people we have done business with in the past have tightened up, pulled and become ultra conservitive, so we work a lot harder, with less people for the same bottom line. I haven't had a pay rasie in nearly three years and the cost of living is going up.
06-16-2011, 01:57 AM
#20
Drifting
It still sounds pretty bad over there in some areas. Our media coverage would let us all believe the USA is doomed.
Well, think about us down here. We are truly screwed, and borrowing $380 million EACH WEEK. Mainly to pay the people who have no job, or little intention of working, ever.
We have 4.5 million people, that's it.
You have more people in a down town shopping mall.
With the continuing earth quakes we are also up for something like 30 billion to rebuild Christchurch. Something like that anyway.
I own a business and have done for 16 years, retail Home audio, and it is stuffed, totally.
Tough times indeed, but I still manage to find my $17.00US to stay on RL
Well, think about us down here. We are truly screwed, and borrowing $380 million EACH WEEK. Mainly to pay the people who have no job, or little intention of working, ever.
We have 4.5 million people, that's it.
You have more people in a down town shopping mall.
With the continuing earth quakes we are also up for something like 30 billion to rebuild Christchurch. Something like that anyway.
I own a business and have done for 16 years, retail Home audio, and it is stuffed, totally.
Tough times indeed, but I still manage to find my $17.00US to stay on RL
06-16-2011, 02:05 AM
#21
Rennlist Member
How topical. Other than the macro-nonsense above, when you're looking at the "little people" trying to make a living, I'll concur with a couple of comments that it's good if you've got (wife's job) and miserable if you don't (my two businesses). So I've been pretty much a bum for nearly two years now, messing with the cars, playing golf, 35 days skiing/boarding this winter, hitting the track. Loaded up and ready to head out tomorrow!
Sitting on a fair amount of cash which I was going to use to buy another business, but nothing makes sense in California. Nothing. Stuck here because of wife's position, and our cost of living is laughably low. A couple of startups are hitting me up who need financing, so I'm considering helping out. Doubt either can get much past hobby level, though. Got a friend in trouble with his business, he's appealed to me for help. Even considered dusting off the 20 year old law degree and volunteering somewhere--I'm only $400-odd from being instated as active. Even there, not really any takers.
Bottom line was that I resisted buying a Cup car 10 years ago, buying a big house (only two of us), or otherwise getting overextended. Pushing 50 there's no way I ever would have imagined the whole nation would have driven over the cliff. California, yes. Saw this state's problems coming in my early adulthood. And no, it's not because of Prop 13.............
Sitting on a fair amount of cash which I was going to use to buy another business, but nothing makes sense in California. Nothing. Stuck here because of wife's position, and our cost of living is laughably low. A couple of startups are hitting me up who need financing, so I'm considering helping out. Doubt either can get much past hobby level, though. Got a friend in trouble with his business, he's appealed to me for help. Even considered dusting off the 20 year old law degree and volunteering somewhere--I'm only $400-odd from being instated as active. Even there, not really any takers.
Bottom line was that I resisted buying a Cup car 10 years ago, buying a big house (only two of us), or otherwise getting overextended. Pushing 50 there's no way I ever would have imagined the whole nation would have driven over the cliff. California, yes. Saw this state's problems coming in my early adulthood. And no, it's not because of Prop 13.............
06-16-2011, 06:23 AM
#22
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It has felt as if we lived in a sheltered workshop here in Sweden. Banks and investment companies and ordinary companies were affected, of course, when banks had trouble borrowing. As usual, the taxpayers had to go in and rescue operations with stringent safeguards. Personally I´am starting to get tired of the "to big to fail" word.
It is the same person then as now that control the events and keep each other behind their backs. Every day we are fed with information by the media on what is happening in Europe, Asia, USA, etc. Given how hard many countries seem to to have been hit by the financial crisis . It is probably just a matter of time before it strikes here as well. A small country like Sweden is dependent on events elsewhere in the world. The salvation has probably been the social safety net built up and taken for granted by people here. The house prices has been stabil and even gone up the last couple of years like nothing has happend around us.
It is with grave concern I read about events around the world. Print money and keeping the interest rates low and push inflation up. It saves only the people who took huge risks. I do not know how it is elsewhere in the world, but this seems to be no accountability of decision makers - both public and in private industry.
It is the same person then as now that control the events and keep each other behind their backs. Every day we are fed with information by the media on what is happening in Europe, Asia, USA, etc. Given how hard many countries seem to to have been hit by the financial crisis . It is probably just a matter of time before it strikes here as well. A small country like Sweden is dependent on events elsewhere in the world. The salvation has probably been the social safety net built up and taken for granted by people here. The house prices has been stabil and even gone up the last couple of years like nothing has happend around us.
It is with grave concern I read about events around the world. Print money and keeping the interest rates low and push inflation up. It saves only the people who took huge risks. I do not know how it is elsewhere in the world, but this seems to be no accountability of decision makers - both public and in private industry.
06-16-2011, 07:04 AM
#23
Rennlist Member
This is a very good thread.
There is more sense here than in 99% of the media articles published.
We are a skewed "sample" however, that we must remember. It seems much is about luck, timing and the industry you earn your living. Personally we are treading water. Havent gained any equity for over 12 months. Havent lost any either. Acting semi retired when Im not. However when Im bored/quiet I spend money so perhaps Im just not frugel enough. Fact is its not all about money. Its about being busy and productive and staying stimulated. If you have money and no work you can still be this - if you dont then I can see how your spirit can become impoverished. The rabbit hole can get dark the further you fall into it. Thankfully we have our healthy and I assume at least can all still afford the luxury of a PC, and internet connection and a weatherproof roof above our heads under which to interface on this forum. Heck. We all still have those damn fine sillouttes of cars sitting on our driveway or in our garage. This economy can take away your savings and it can take away you investments and maybe even you home. But it cant take away comraderie and friendship and passion. Not in this place. Not now. Not ever. Lets hope....
M
There is more sense here than in 99% of the media articles published.
We are a skewed "sample" however, that we must remember. It seems much is about luck, timing and the industry you earn your living. Personally we are treading water. Havent gained any equity for over 12 months. Havent lost any either. Acting semi retired when Im not. However when Im bored/quiet I spend money so perhaps Im just not frugel enough. Fact is its not all about money. Its about being busy and productive and staying stimulated. If you have money and no work you can still be this - if you dont then I can see how your spirit can become impoverished. The rabbit hole can get dark the further you fall into it. Thankfully we have our healthy and I assume at least can all still afford the luxury of a PC, and internet connection and a weatherproof roof above our heads under which to interface on this forum. Heck. We all still have those damn fine sillouttes of cars sitting on our driveway or in our garage. This economy can take away your savings and it can take away you investments and maybe even you home. But it cant take away comraderie and friendship and passion. Not in this place. Not now. Not ever. Lets hope....
M
06-16-2011, 08:55 AM
#24
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I just changed jobs within my company. In my last job I was responsible for a construction type of business across the US and Canada. The US are very shattered if it comes down to how the market does. With some new innovations ad tremendous price pressure we did quite well in several markets in the US. and then there were areas where we just exited or put everything on hold. But it is a daily fight with productivity, low cost and customer value add. Our business suffered in 09 and 10. This year in 11 we are up by 15% in revenue but still not at 09 level.
Now I took over a business which is very strong dependable from international business in India, China, Brasil and the US too. Completely different ball game. This year and last year are down but next year expecting also a 15-20% growth.
Now, one of the challenges we have is to find good people for international project execution. Not easy these days to find the diamonds of people out there.
On a personal note - we had to make sacrifices if it came down for relocation and loss on house. So, if you personally willing to bit a bullet and take a hit there are great opportunities out there. The company even secured a job for my wife in a very good manager position starting here job at the same day than I did.
As a comparison, colleague of mine just relocated also from Florida and did the short sale thing. He took a calculated hit and set back to develop his career knowing that he will be challenged for the next years but got out of the toxic asset and move up the cooperate chain.
Overall - it is challenging but with some effort and a good track record you still have plenty of opportunities out there.
Jack
Now I took over a business which is very strong dependable from international business in India, China, Brasil and the US too. Completely different ball game. This year and last year are down but next year expecting also a 15-20% growth.
Now, one of the challenges we have is to find good people for international project execution. Not easy these days to find the diamonds of people out there.
On a personal note - we had to make sacrifices if it came down for relocation and loss on house. So, if you personally willing to bit a bullet and take a hit there are great opportunities out there. The company even secured a job for my wife in a very good manager position starting here job at the same day than I did.
As a comparison, colleague of mine just relocated also from Florida and did the short sale thing. He took a calculated hit and set back to develop his career knowing that he will be challenged for the next years but got out of the toxic asset and move up the cooperate chain.
Overall - it is challenging but with some effort and a good track record you still have plenty of opportunities out there.
Jack
06-16-2011, 10:04 AM
#25
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Kind of stuck here in GA - two aging parents to keep tabs on, wife's job (which carries the health insurance for us) is not readily portable, kids want to finish out school in this district, property here in town and in the mountains. So despite being in the construction biz and that very little of that is going on in Atlanta, I'm staying put and taking my lumps. The job I'm in now pays but a fraction of what I used to make, but fortunately we didn't go hog-*** wild with buying stuff using debt.
06-16-2011, 10:41 AM
#26
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In our life time?
back to your question.- If you know of layoffs and unemployment rising around you, it is distressing.
- If you know someone close who is laid off & unable to find work, it is a recession.
- If you are laid off unable to find work, it is a depression.
In the midwest, the fortune 500 manufacturing backbone of the middle class is gone and not coming back. There are more college graduates coming into the market then there are jobs. No chance for any significant % of HS grads making it into middle class life, like in the 50's/70's. Lots of talk about the cost of college (student loan route or parent's 2nd mortgage) may not be worth it for a general degree without a focus on getting a job in a specific industry that is still hiring college grads as the old guard isn't exiting either with all the hits to "retirement planning". Way too many 20 somethings living with parents with only part time work or now going for their masters (with still no employment prospects).
Once college enrollment drops (middle class families run out of funds and the feds cap student loans), we will have hit the final inflection point of the demise of the middle class majority.
Without drastic change in the way the USA and the "west" do government and reward productivity, as opposed to rewarding excuses / failures and special interests, the demise of the west, like European colonialism, the Ottomans, the Romans, the Greeks, etc. , is underway.
And without the west, the BRIC's will have no more market to support their growth.Like it or not, it is a global economy.
06-16-2011, 10:42 AM
#27
Rennlist Member
Economics 101:
Private industry is more efficient IF AND ONLY IF the industry is perfectly competitive, which means:
- low barriers to entry (easy to start a business and compete)
- low market power (no real dominant players, or dominance is temporary, no company is 'too big to fail')
- lots of firms/players in the industry
If you don't have these conditions, the industry is NOT efficient or competitive. But monopolistic or oligopolistic (i.e. there is collusion, either directly or indirectly, which causes prices to consumers to be artificially high). When you have relatively few players who make up most of the market in an industry, you don't have an efficient market.
And this describes all the industries that Tea Partiers and Republicans want to privatize in the name of so-called efficiency. Except they don't know a thing about basic economics. They hate government spending, and they hate regulation.
I do agree that government needs to control spending.
But if these industries that want to remain private or want to further privatize -- like education, healthcare, energy, financial services, media (all industries that are not competitive, but are oligopolistic), in return they need to be more heavily regulated. Or else there is huge incentives to abuse market power which will escalate costs more than if it were "publicly funded". And that's precisely what's happened. HMOs behaving badly started when Nixon loosed up regulation considerably. Enron screwing California and other energy shenanigans when government privatized energy but with little regulation. Loosening regulation on financial institutions is a big part of the credit/housing bubble and its aftermath (banks behaving badly, which the taxpayer pays for), media companies merging into bigger and bigger entities, and trying to tear down the FTC.
So that's the deal. Either government provides publicly funded options in these industries (like education and healthcare), or if it's 100% privatized, they better be more heavily regulated to manage costs and price controls. It's one or the other.
But if we continue to cut government spending AND further deregulate industries like the Repubs and Tea Partiers wish for, things are going to get worse, not better. You'll get more market failures across these industries, and more "too big to fail" situations where the taxpayer ends up paying for anyhow.
Private industry is more efficient IF AND ONLY IF the industry is perfectly competitive, which means:
- low barriers to entry (easy to start a business and compete)
- low market power (no real dominant players, or dominance is temporary, no company is 'too big to fail')
- lots of firms/players in the industry
If you don't have these conditions, the industry is NOT efficient or competitive. But monopolistic or oligopolistic (i.e. there is collusion, either directly or indirectly, which causes prices to consumers to be artificially high). When you have relatively few players who make up most of the market in an industry, you don't have an efficient market.
And this describes all the industries that Tea Partiers and Republicans want to privatize in the name of so-called efficiency. Except they don't know a thing about basic economics. They hate government spending, and they hate regulation.
I do agree that government needs to control spending.
But if these industries that want to remain private or want to further privatize -- like education, healthcare, energy, financial services, media (all industries that are not competitive, but are oligopolistic), in return they need to be more heavily regulated. Or else there is huge incentives to abuse market power which will escalate costs more than if it were "publicly funded". And that's precisely what's happened. HMOs behaving badly started when Nixon loosed up regulation considerably. Enron screwing California and other energy shenanigans when government privatized energy but with little regulation. Loosening regulation on financial institutions is a big part of the credit/housing bubble and its aftermath (banks behaving badly, which the taxpayer pays for), media companies merging into bigger and bigger entities, and trying to tear down the FTC.
So that's the deal. Either government provides publicly funded options in these industries (like education and healthcare), or if it's 100% privatized, they better be more heavily regulated to manage costs and price controls. It's one or the other.
But if we continue to cut government spending AND further deregulate industries like the Repubs and Tea Partiers wish for, things are going to get worse, not better. You'll get more market failures across these industries, and more "too big to fail" situations where the taxpayer ends up paying for anyhow.
You live in Ca. (correct?) I'm sure you have seen what extreme levels of taxation does to businesses. They leave if they can or shut down. Very predictable behavior that politicians don't seem to understand. Results are less tax revenue to the state.
You had much more to say than I am intertested in addresing here but I will repeat:
More taxes are not the answer
More government spending is not the answer
California is a good test case... we've seen how it plays out.
All my opinion, of course, but I think there is good data to support it.
I do agree with your bullet points on private industry & what it takes to thrive and remain healthy. Common sense.
Have a great day and even if we are all doomed, cheer up! At least enjoy the ride.
06-16-2011, 10:44 AM
#28
Alaska economy is doing pretty well.....though we have been looking over our shoulders, wondering when/if the rolling recession will hit us.
Tourism has picked up again and is extremely strong.
Commercial vertical construction is doing okay, horizontal civil work is huge.
Residential is spotty; large custom builders have a backlog, but spec building is about zero.
Retail is doing pretty well; most restaurants very busy.
Military construction is still huge, and looks to remain that way for the long term.
Seems to me that anyone really wanting work here can find it, with some exceptions of course.
Tourism has picked up again and is extremely strong.
Commercial vertical construction is doing okay, horizontal civil work is huge.
Residential is spotty; large custom builders have a backlog, but spec building is about zero.
Retail is doing pretty well; most restaurants very busy.
Military construction is still huge, and looks to remain that way for the long term.
Seems to me that anyone really wanting work here can find it, with some exceptions of course.
06-16-2011, 11:47 AM
#29
We( Willhoit Enterprises) just had our "BEST" first quarter in 35 years !!! You don't have to own /drive Porsches,Mercedes, or Ferrari's "BUT" you have to EAT !! Sooooooooooooooo,I guess alot more people are eating these days..We are still VERY humble as we are like the stock market,not where we were,but we are gaining on it one deal at a time..I'm very lucky to be able to have made a love for sports cars my hobby and or living..I attribute this to many,many years of treating our customers the way we would like to be treated,plus offering only the "BEST" hand picked pre-owned Porsche cars so people come back to us time after time..But with all this being said,I have seen a little slowing coming on the last couple of weeks as well...Soooooooooooo at the end of the day, we just play the hand we get dealt and roll the dice !!!
06-16-2011, 12:15 PM
#30
Burning Brakes
I live in Vista, CA. The economy here seems like a mixed bag where the seperation between lower class and upper class is spreading and there isn't much in-between. In my part of town my 993 might as well be a space ship. Drive 5 minutes south to Rancho Santa Fe and nobody looks twice at it and all the high school kids have new BMW's.
I am sure the story is the same in a lot of places but it seems to me that in San Diego the "cost of living" outweighs the salaries for most positions. With so many talented people to choose from it's easy for employers to offer low salaries for demanding positions.
If I wasn't up to my eyeballs in debt from purchasing a house three years ago (ouch!) I would not live here (California) any more.
All that being said, I am currently employed, I can afford to pay my mortgage and still have enough money to take the wife to dinner on the weekend so I consider myself lucky. I know a lot of people who can't say the same.
I am sure the story is the same in a lot of places but it seems to me that in San Diego the "cost of living" outweighs the salaries for most positions. With so many talented people to choose from it's easy for employers to offer low salaries for demanding positions.
If I wasn't up to my eyeballs in debt from purchasing a house three years ago (ouch!) I would not live here (California) any more.
All that being said, I am currently employed, I can afford to pay my mortgage and still have enough money to take the wife to dinner on the weekend so I consider myself lucky. I know a lot of people who can't say the same.