Bruce Anderson
07-19-2007, 03:34 PM
#46
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Originally Posted by DaveM993
Although "ignoramus" is definitely inappropriate, I have to agree that if you are going to put yourself out there as the "expert" (and in some areas he certainly is), anything that is published commercially as a "expert advice or opinion" is worthy of close scrutiny and challenge. The problem with the numbers is they are not even close...and that should be of concern to Excellence.
I have no doubt he has more expertise in his moustache than I do in my entire head as far as technical issues are concerned, but one could make the logical leap that he's simply taken the price of 10 year old Porsches are applied some WAG inflation factor to them. It's arbitrary, out of touch with any reality I'm familiar with, and could be dangerous for the aforementioned insurance matters.
How about this, Bruce. I'll pay you a 5% finders fee if you can find me a 993 at the price you've stated. Stand behind your work.
07-19-2007, 10:42 PM
#49
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Originally Posted by RallyJon
I have to ask: WHERE IS THE DATA COMING FROM? Does Blue Book just make up numbers? I thought they had hard research data? Maybe everyone who buys a C2S lowballs the reported transaction price to save tax?
I understand they use some kind of formula based on straight line depreciation from the original new MSRP....
07-20-2007, 01:46 AM
#51
Guys, this *exact* same melodrama took place a couple of years ago, when BA was claiming in his market reports that good condition early 911S cars were worth $17,000 (or whatever his bizarre valuation was). All the early 911S guys went ballistic, saying the same thing: I'll take as many $17K cars as you can find. Not surprisingly, none were found...
To make a long story short (and I say this as someone who has written for Excellence, will write for the magazine in the future, and thinks highly of Pete Stout, the editor), Bruce's market valuations should simply be ignored. They are not the product of any kind of scientific or empirical inquiry into actual selling prices. What they are representative of, nobody knows. Maybe Bruce just pulls the numbers out of a hat.
To make a long story short (and I say this as someone who has written for Excellence, will write for the magazine in the future, and thinks highly of Pete Stout, the editor), Bruce's market valuations should simply be ignored. They are not the product of any kind of scientific or empirical inquiry into actual selling prices. What they are representative of, nobody knows. Maybe Bruce just pulls the numbers out of a hat.
07-20-2007, 09:05 AM
#52
Originally Posted by Noah
Guys, this *exact* same melodrama took place a couple of years ago, when BA was claiming in his market reports that good condition early 911S cars were worth $17,000 (or whatever his bizarre valuation was). All the early 911S guys went ballistic, saying the same thing: I'll take as many $17K cars as you can find. Not surprisingly, none were found...
To make a long story short (and I say this as someone who has written for Excellence, will write for the magazine in the future, and thinks highly of Pete Stout, the editor), Bruce's market valuations should simply be ignored. They are not the product of any kind of scientific or empirical inquiry into actual selling prices. What they are representative of, nobody knows. Maybe Bruce just pulls the numbers out of a hat.
To make a long story short (and I say this as someone who has written for Excellence, will write for the magazine in the future, and thinks highly of Pete Stout, the editor), Bruce's market valuations should simply be ignored. They are not the product of any kind of scientific or empirical inquiry into actual selling prices. What they are representative of, nobody knows. Maybe Bruce just pulls the numbers out of a hat.
07-20-2007, 09:27 AM
#53
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Originally Posted by Noah
Guys, this *exact* same melodrama took place a couple of years ago, when BA was claiming in his market reports that good condition early 911S cars were worth $17,000 (or whatever his bizarre valuation was). All the early 911S guys went ballistic, saying the same thing: I'll take as many $17K cars as you can find. Not surprisingly, none were found...
To make a long story short (and I say this as someone who has written for Excellence, will write for the magazine in the future, and thinks highly of Pete Stout, the editor), Bruce's market valuations should simply be ignored. They are not the product of any kind of scientific or empirical inquiry into actual selling prices. What they are representative of, nobody knows. Maybe Bruce just pulls the numbers out of a hat.
To make a long story short (and I say this as someone who has written for Excellence, will write for the magazine in the future, and thinks highly of Pete Stout, the editor), Bruce's market valuations should simply be ignored. They are not the product of any kind of scientific or empirical inquiry into actual selling prices. What they are representative of, nobody knows. Maybe Bruce just pulls the numbers out of a hat.
07-20-2007, 10:36 AM
#54
I struggled though statistics in school, but one thing that always bothered me was the size of the sample and or the amount of data used to determine that a "98 C4s (for example)in good conditon is worth $ XX, 827.
How is a number down to the dollar generated?
How many '98 C4S exist? ( less thah 1000?), How many change hands in a year? ( < 100?). How many can one get actual pricing for? ( < 50, who knows the price on a trade ?). Of those how do you determine condition?.
I think my numbers for sample size are generous. But I think a stats jock will tell us that the level of confidence in a figure generated this way is low.
Somebody who knows what thye are talking about please chime in!
How is a number down to the dollar generated?
How many '98 C4S exist? ( less thah 1000?), How many change hands in a year? ( < 100?). How many can one get actual pricing for? ( < 50, who knows the price on a trade ?). Of those how do you determine condition?.
I think my numbers for sample size are generous. But I think a stats jock will tell us that the level of confidence in a figure generated this way is low.
Somebody who knows what thye are talking about please chime in!
07-20-2007, 10:44 AM
#55
I struggled though statistics in school, but one thing that always bothered me was the size of the sample and or the amount of data used to determine that a "98 C4s (for example)in good conditon is worth $ XX, 827.
How is a number down to the dollar generated?
How many '98 C4S exist? ( less thah 1000?), How many change hands in a year? ( < 100?). How many can one get actual pricing for? ( < 50, who knows the price on a trade ?). Of those how do you determine condition?.
I think my numbers for sample size are generous. But I think a stats jock will tell us that the level of confidence in a figure generated this way is low.
Somebody who knows what they are talking about please chime in!
How is a number down to the dollar generated?
How many '98 C4S exist? ( less thah 1000?), How many change hands in a year? ( < 100?). How many can one get actual pricing for? ( < 50, who knows the price on a trade ?). Of those how do you determine condition?.
I think my numbers for sample size are generous. But I think a stats jock will tell us that the level of confidence in a figure generated this way is low.
Somebody who knows what they are talking about please chime in!
07-20-2007, 11:07 AM
#56
(Disclaimer: please take this with the Humor it is intended with !) 
SOOOO,,,,, with all the Bruce Anderson re-evaluation going on (and I believe he is one of the most quoted sources on this issue), where does that leave us on the engine undertray issue ??
SOOOO,,,,, with all the Bruce Anderson re-evaluation going on (and I believe he is one of the most quoted sources on this issue), where does that leave us on the engine undertray issue ??
07-20-2007, 12:53 PM
#57
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The fact that it is down to the dollar implies that there is some *formula* at work. I have seen valuation reports for some models that do show an upswing in values so it is not just a straight line depreciation.
I guess I will just start completely skipping that section of Excellence since I am now convinced it bears no relationship to reality for the most part.
BTW - Edmunds has a excellent condition '98 C2S valued at about $25K and a '97 Turbo S for about $75K...so at least BA is on the right side of those numbers...
I guess I will just start completely skipping that section of Excellence since I am now convinced it bears no relationship to reality for the most part.
BTW - Edmunds has a excellent condition '98 C2S valued at about $25K and a '97 Turbo S for about $75K...so at least BA is on the right side of those numbers...
07-21-2007, 09:23 AM
#58
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Gents:
Why the piling on? What difference does an arbitrary number in some magazine make? You'd think that Bruce was assaulting your manhood. Are you all not content with your ownership of the car regardless of price? Is there some great fear of having paid too much lurking within your garage?
I'm always amused when a post here reaches four pages in a few short days. Sadly, it is rarely a true technical issue that generates such interest....unless it's the great undertray mystery which in itself is a commentary.
Maybe I'll start a thread on the origin of the Undertray issue. I'll bet we can blame him for that too.
Why the piling on? What difference does an arbitrary number in some magazine make? You'd think that Bruce was assaulting your manhood. Are you all not content with your ownership of the car regardless of price? Is there some great fear of having paid too much lurking within your garage?
I'm always amused when a post here reaches four pages in a few short days. Sadly, it is rarely a true technical issue that generates such interest....unless it's the great undertray mystery which in itself is a commentary.
Maybe I'll start a thread on the origin of the Undertray issue. I'll bet we can blame him for that too.
07-21-2007, 10:12 AM
#59
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Originally Posted by Fred, Long Island
Gents:
Why the piling on?
Why the piling on?
And some guys are rightfully worried that insurance companies can use Bruce Anderson's information out of his left ear to screw them over should they have a car that needs total value replacement.
And then some of us buyers read the info every month, printed in clear black and white, and wonder where is this wonderful parallel universe Bruce is living in, since we never ever see such wonderful prices.
This concludes the Cliff's Notes version of this thread. That's why the piling on.
07-21-2007, 10:31 AM
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The law of supply and demand will dictate pricing.
Considering there were only 539 95 C4's made for the US, that equates to about 1 in every 600,000 people in the States having one. The question being is how many people somewhere down the road will demand a 95 C4? Who knows, only time will tell.
Considering there were only 539 95 C4's made for the US, that equates to about 1 in every 600,000 people in the States having one. The question being is how many people somewhere down the road will demand a 95 C4? Who knows, only time will tell.