Watson

I am posting here because I think as 993 folks, some of us might be concerned if we live in an area which is not friendly to older cars.
Basically, in some countries, 993 are not eligible yet to being collectible cars (from an administration / paperwork point of view) and so are not allowed to be driven in city centers. I see some people replacing their 993 for 991 for this reason.
Diesel are going to be banned from city centers in 2024 in many European countries.
I fear that older gasoline cars will also be banned from city center in this decade. I saw some car guys leave big city centers to live in countryside because city centers become ICE car-phobic.
And then, ICE gasoline cars may also be banned in the following decades.
Don't get me wrong, I think air pollution is a serious issue and cannot be taken lightly. I use bus, subway and train regularly every time I go to city centers.

But for the car guys who only drive their 993 (or any other fun newer cars) : what is our future?
Move to the countryside to be able to drive my fun car?
Move to another country who is friendly with owning/driving older cars?
Will we still be able to buy gasoline at a reasonable price to enjoy our cars?
I hope I have 4 decades in front of me to still enjoy my 993 - if I can't drive it at all, what hobby I am going to replace it with?

Any thoughts?

rk-d

The long term prognosis for driving recreational ICE cars will be fine, is my gut feeling.

They will eventually start taxing aggressively, I'm sure. Gas tax, Carbon tax. Perhaps even a carbon VAT. People suddenly get super creative when it comes to taxes.

The US is far too large and its electrical infrastructure is not robust enough to handle universal elimination of ICE. There is also little appetite for that in many parts of the country. We have no real public rail and it's not a practical option to implement - not in the way it is in Europe. We have enough trouble as it is maintaining our electrical needs with our current power grid- I can't imagine the burden completely eliminating ICE will add.

ICE will get harder to own and harder to drive. But recreational ICE will be hard to totally eliminate. They will make it expensive and gas will be harder to get and more expensive to pay, but I feel pretty confident I will be able to drive my car for the rest of my life. Will I be able to do so in NYC or major urban city centers? Eventually, no. I do believe the days are numbered for that.

JParanee

Yes we can help use your vote

pp000830

Not sure this is necessarily true as although the Progressive elements in society driving this are ascendant at the moment the large and wealthy stakeholders groups vested in petroleum production/refining/distribution and use will be supporting the continued use of ICE cars. Also, don't discount car manufacturers who know a long-term goal may be to have a broad offering of electric cars but know the technical limitations and lack of infrastructure will limit their attractiveness to the mass market and so sales for a long time. Also, massive enhancements to the electric grid will need to be made to make a mass-market fleet of purely electrical cars feasible. Something our government has been loathed to invest in.

My view is multiple forms of fuel will be the rule in the future Gasolene, Diesel, LNG, and electric.

Also, once the political noise settles down and science is applied it will become readily apparent the Hybrid Gasoline cars will be the winner in the goal of striving to minimize the total pollution during the lifecycle of a vehicle. The idea that carbon dioxide from vehicles is a pollutant will change over time.

I find it interesting that we now see the invisible hand controlling the mass and social media is now flooded with positive editorial content about a new kind of nuclear plant, that could be used to expand the national electrical grid capacity that not only has little environmental risk but can be used to break down the stockpiles of high-level nuclear waste we have accumulated.

What they don't discuss is the significant risks unique to these new sodium-cooled plants and that they employ breeder reactors capable of making what is ultimately weapons-grade fuel. History has told us that controlling the security of such fuels is very hard to do and so our DOD decommissioned its last breeder reactor in the '80s. if these plants are widely employed it will lower the bar on what it takes for bad actors to divert the precursors needed to acquire nuclear weapons.

Woops...
Andy

Andy

mdude

[QUOTE=Watson;17552675]I am posting here because I think as 993 folks, some of us might be concerned if we live in an area which is not friendly to older cars.
Basically, in some countries, 993 are not eligible yet to being collectible cars (from an administration / paperwork point of view) and so are not allowed to be driven in city centers. I see some people replacing their 993 for 991 for this reason.
Diesel are going to be banned from city centers in 2024 in many European countries.
I fear that older gasoline cars will also be banned from city center in this decade. I saw some car guys leave big city centers to live in countryside because city centers become ICE car-phobic.
And then, ICE gasoline cars may also be banned in the following decades.
Don't get me wrong, I think air pollution is a serious issue and cannot be taken lightly. I use bus, subway and train regularly every time I go to city centers.

But for the car guys who only drive their 993 (or any other fun newer cars) : what is our future?
Move to the countryside to be able to drive my fun car?
Move to another country who is friendly with owning/driving older cars?
Will we still be able to buy gasoline at a reasonable price to enjoy our cars?
I hope I have 4 decades in front of me to still enjoy my 993 - if I can't drive it at all, what hobby I am going to replace it with?

Any thoughts?



Futile to worry about things that won't happen, if at all, for another 10-15 years, minimum.

Watson

My gut feeling too.

Agreed, I also think that gas will become more expensive: gas may become a luxury commodity compared to using electricity to recharge an EV car.
That is why we should all drive our 911s as much as we can.
I am also thinking that flight tickets would be more expensive in the future due to kerosene price higher.

venom51

Doing some math will tell you that electric will be limited as the same green weenies that want it also don't want the nuclear power it will take to support it. You are being marketed to and nothing more. Unless some major break through happens in the very near future solar and wind have no hopes of producing enough power for everyone to be driving electric and ICE to be completely gone.

Watson

Totally agreed.

Watson

Yes, I hope the future will be eclectic and not only electric. I like what Germany is doing in the sense that they consider different sources of energy:
- you can still use gasoline cars in city centers even if it Euro1 but some streets may be forbidden if you don't have a recent gasoline engine (Euro 5 manifold injection or Euro6 direct injection with particulate filter)
- you are still allowed to used Diesel in city centers but they must be at least Euro 6 which makes sense to me since most of the nasty pollutions come from older diesel cars.
- VAG also launched several LNG powertrains in some of their cars.
- they are building their charger network for electric and PHEV cars.

Watson

Yes, I hear you and I am in carpe diem mode as far as enjoying my 993 goes.

I just want to plan ahead is such thing is possible and I though the collective brains of RL would be better than just my personal thoughts.
Covid will help me work remotely so I'd rather enjoy living in the countryside in a dry and sunny climate close to very nice driving roads to enjoy my cars. In my personal situation, this would required planning ahead like finding a farm that I would renovate and part of it could become a multi car garage / workshop area.

Edward

1. Wholly agree with the vote ...yup, pay attention closely to who does what; not just says, but does and enact. And act accordingly, while you still can.

2. Likewise I am not worried given our human lifespan and what monumental infrastructural sea changes would have to take place for the ICE to go belly up. Sure "that" element will push, tax, and levy toward that end, but that's where #1 above must provide that stern body check. At least this is how it's supposed to work!

3. Far too much doom-n-gloom demagoguery has been proliferated in this past decade; that binary thinking that isn't true "thinking" at all but mere reactionary response fueled by emotion and garbage research that I won't even deign to call science. We see what it can do in the short term, but I do not personally believe such emotional hotbed reactionism has any long-term legs. I have no evidence, whatsoever; only personal speculation borne from the experience of having breathed quite a long time to see the sky falling more than once

4. As for me an my house, give me the ICE or give me ...oh, nevermind! I'll just enjoy these thingies while I can!

Edward

bullfighter

Good video from Harry’s Garage… I agree with his analysis:

gavonder

Beat me to it. I think this is a very good analysis & on point

Sword_of_the_Spirit

It’s pandering to a certain group. Look, Ford a few years back stop making small efficient cars because gas prices were so low and people wanted something a bit larger. Now, that tune has mostly changed. I see it going back and forth. Too many cars on the road from the 90’s and up. Yes, a good deal of those 90’s Japanese markets and American Trucks are still running and will continue for many more years. There isn’t a way in which those individuals will pony up for the electric varieties due to either cost or usage (probably the former). Individuals talk about rebates and such…only the issue with that is it’s not more than 20% of the cost.

bottomline: oil reserves are being discovered still and tech is getting better and safer to get it out. Nuclear isn’t going up anytime soon. Grid won’t be able to handle 10% of electric out there with significant cuts elsewhere.

Im not worried and I “should” have a good 60yrs left on this earth (no, not accounting for the 3 digits).