interesting take on the market; hes in the UK market but i would imagine this is true everywhere

 

When I see bitcoin doing what it's been doing lately, I know there is still too much speculative money in circulation.

 

Porsche market is almost directly related to the SP500.

If you think we will have a hard landing, we almost certainly have peaked and depreciation will start to hit these cars, although I can’t say how much.

however if you believe in a soft landing then the market likely stay decent.

historically speaking, the probability of a soft landing after Fed tightens monetary policy is very rare, occurring only 10 percent of the time.

inflation won’t come down materially to the 2 percent target until we see a significant softening in the economy. A soft landing plus inflation coming done, to me, seems very difficult to manufacture.

so based on this, the price of a 911 will likely drop.

 

I’m still waiting on 20% off MSRP deals like I was told a year ago.

 

the one thing i have noticed, and that he mentions in the video, is that it seems like porsche is making a lot more "special cars". i see about as much GT3s for sale as 911S. seems like they decided to produce what makes them the most money.

 

They will just make less cars before they would be forced into discounting, so forget that angle, that's never coming back (and not just for Porsche). Those days are gone across almost the entire auto industry. The only realistic improvement would be allocations at MSRP with less than a 1+ year wait.

 

oh i couldn't care less about discounting, and i agree that is probably not changing in the near future

what i would love would be to be able to walk into a dealership and order a 911S/T/GTS at msrp without waiting a few years or paying a ridiculous markup

 

They're cars. They're not investments. You're supposed to be driving them and enjoying them.

A few notes from watching the video...

• Caymans, even the GT4s, never held their values like the 911 and don't reflect the 911 market. They're not 911s.
• Across multiple generations, the TTS and TT cars always experienced the steepest depreciation. Nothing new there. A few factors at work on that one, but the primary issue is that it's a "luxury" 911. It's like buying an S class or other European "luxury" car along with the depreciation that accompanies it. For most TTS/TT buyers, that car is their daily "beater" with their garage(s) containing the truly expensive and exotic stuff. Yes, that may be hard to comprehend for some enthusiasts, but it's a distinctly unique market segment from the rest of the 911 variants. People who buy new TTS/TT cars want new ones built to their spec -- they don't want used ones.
• Porsche produces fewer Targa's than they do GT3s. For two major generations now, the Targa has been the best looking 911 variant. Journalists wax on as to how special they are -- they deliver a unique 911 experience. It's really no surprise that Targa's hold their value so well, especially the even more rare heritage and design cars.
• Sure, if you paid ADM intending to flip the car, the math isn't going to work out for you, because depreciation is from that MSRP, not the price paid with ADM.

I agree with Jay that if you love your car, none of this matters.
Buy cars that you love. Don't buy a car expecting to make a buck.

 

I think this scenario will be here in 6 to 9 months.

I agree with what (docm2010) conveyed above. Soft landing could be tough with all this turbulence

 

My guess is nothing will change market wise in the next year.

 

I think we're past the peak.

 

The average 911 client is well to do. Changes in economy will effect them but the greatest impact is the stock market as most of their wealth is tied too it. Many 911 owners buy their cars with cash-so higher interest rates don’t directly affect them.

I bought my cayenne turbo at the bottom of the market in March 2020. Literally an hour from the bottom. I felt awful going in and buying a 160,000 dollar car.

The Porsche dealer was a ghost town. Only the GM and service guys were there. They said no one was walking their store in past few weeks.

fast forward 6 months later when the market had recovered substantially. Porsche showroom was exploding with customers buying cars.

Covid was still swarming at that point too so it wasn’t like things had improved, the vaccine wasn’t even out yet.

to illustrate my point above, studying the technicals of the SP500 is more likely to be an indicator of the P market rather then any other dynamics. Being tongue and cheek of course lol but just my theory!

 

made it 13 seconds...

 

ya I remember. Bought my 2018 991.2 in June of 2020 for $75k. Showroom was dead.

I’m not looking for a deal or to flip the car. I’m just having a hard time with the markups on new cars (after the substantial msrp increases) or buying a 1-2 year old car at original msrp or higher. I have noticed that cars are sitting longer now. A dealer close by has a 992 gts for $165k with a manual with an original msrp of $155k. Cpo and 5k miles. It’s been reduced by $20k since July and is still sitting.

 

Some of these “influencers” sure do know how to get clicks/views.