Recession-Proof Purchase?
Rennlist Member
Joined: Aug 2010
Posts: 2,582
Likes: 2,981
From: Philly suburbs
I'm not sure this is true of the overall market. On Rennlist it may be because the Porsche buyers that spend their time here also join PCA and clearly spend a bunch of their time talking about Porsches. But I think a lot of customers like the cars and have bought them for years but aren't necessarily super passionate about them. It's partly economics (if you make $150K a year and buy a 911, it really matters to you but if you make $3M+ a year, it's just one of many choices you make on a product purchase and might not be that emotionally significant).
Last edited by RudyP; May 22, 2022 at 11:37 PM.
Burning Brakes
Joined: Apr 2019
Posts: 1,148
Likes: 574
Most economists in the US are now predicting a recession towards the end of the year. I wonder if this could reduce the number of people with V70s as people reevaluate their liquidity in a downturn. That is my way of wondering if it may become easier to get a GTS allocation in about six months than it is today?
Burning Brakes
Joined: May 2013
Posts: 804
Likes: 304
From: The Rocket City
People buying new 911s aren't typically the folks impacted by a recession any more than they are impacted by paying $6-7/gal for gasoline.
Yes, there might be a handful of folks that bail, but I don't think that it will be material enough to impact supply (see above). At the moment, the backlog of people wanting these cars is without precedent. There are plenty of buyers in waiting still ready to fight over allocations. While there's a possibility that allocations might be easier to come by later this year, we've got a ways to go before you can just walk into your dealer and get one like the old days.
In 2008, there was a slip in demand, but financial crisis was not a typical recession event and there were a lot of other factors at work back then. It's not really a good comparison for where we are at today.
With that being said, a recession will bring about some changes...
Yes, there might be a handful of folks that bail, but I don't think that it will be material enough to impact supply (see above). At the moment, the backlog of people wanting these cars is without precedent. There are plenty of buyers in waiting still ready to fight over allocations. While there's a possibility that allocations might be easier to come by later this year, we've got a ways to go before you can just walk into your dealer and get one like the old days.
In 2008, there was a slip in demand, but financial crisis was not a typical recession event and there were a lot of other factors at work back then. It's not really a good comparison for where we are at today.
With that being said, a recession will bring about some changes...
- MSRP will no longer be the price floor for a new car purchase. If you committed to paying ADM for a car that you won't see until the end of the year or 2023, um... the market will be a different place by then. ADMs will go away for a lot of models. You'll be able to buy a Carrera/S for below MSRP by Fall. It won't see big discounts, but we'll start seeing 3-5% again. For cars not in such high demand, TV ads are already running for some brands with promotional MSRPs and cashback offers. Cash on the hood is back, especially for gas guzzlers.
- It will be the end to the near zero depreciation of used cars. The supply of used Porsche cars has been steadily increasing. Everyone got to enjoy a couple years of free driving, but you'll see those values drop again like the good ole days. The used 992 market is already showing this -- inflation is masking it, but the trend is there. As it has been for a few decades, the GT3 and specials aside, a new 911 is not a short-term investment vehicle. (pun)
- If you're looking to sell a used 911, it's going to take longer and you'll be competing with more cars. There are people who get twitchy in recessions and sell a bunch of stuff. 911s are very much that "stuff". Dealers won't be buying them up like they've been or if they do, it will be well below what you paid for it. If you optioned your car up with no regard to resale, you'll start to see a much bigger hit to values.
Rennlist Member
Joined: May 2018
Posts: 235
Likes: 94
From: SF Bay Area
IMHO We're in kind of uncharted territory when it comes to economy and specifically car prices. Too many countering factors that are driving car purchases and the market in general... Some factors that are on top of my mind (in no particular order):
- This is literally the first time in many people's lifetime where stagflation is probably going to happen.
- Yes we have a huge pull back in the stock market, wiping out people's asset and indirectly impact liquidity, still, lots of people still have lots of money.
- At the same time we also have raising interest rate, higher inflation, and a historical labor shortage with Boomers retirement coming into full swing, driving higher wages, which that alone means inflation is likely self-sustaining, regardless of what the Feds do
- On the car side, we have supply issue and the "last hurrah" for the ICE. This is pushing people to be a little irrational with their purchases (and dealership to capitalize)
Rennlist Member
Joined: Jul 2018
Posts: 367
Likes: 150
Most economists in the US are now predicting a recession towards the end of the year. I wonder if this could reduce the number of people with V70s as people reevaluate their liquidity in a downturn. That is my way of wondering if it may become easier to get a GTS allocation in about six months than it is today?
Pro
Joined: Jun 2007
Posts: 521
Likes: 58
This may have already been said... I watch the inventory of certain cars on CarGuru's for some time (years). 992 inventory had been in the single digits for many months (50mi radius). Inventory has been over 25 for a few weeks.
To the point of those above, maybe the economy is pushing buyers off the ledge.
To the point of those above, maybe the economy is pushing buyers off the ledge.
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Rennlist Member
Rennlist Member
Joined: Jan 2019
Posts: 6,100
Likes: 9,007
From: Doylestown, PA
This may have already been said... I watch the inventory of certain cars on CarGuru's for some time (years). 992 inventory had been in the single digits for many months (50mi radius). Inventory has been over 25 for a few weeks.
To the point of those above, maybe the economy is pushing buyers off the ledge.
To the point of those above, maybe the economy is pushing buyers off the ledge.
Rennlist Member
Joined: Jul 2018
Posts: 367
Likes: 150