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Thinking about purchasing a 2021 Targa 4S with maybe five hundred kilometres on it. I would likely be paying $15,000 over MSRP. This is a bit better than the current market price for these vehicles, although there are very few of these cars available
I would only be able to use this car for a year or two before I would have to switch it out for something more child-friendly and sell it
I know nobody has a crystal ball, but I'm wondering if those of you that really know this Market think that the depreciation will be very rapid with a correction of the current 992s or if it will be a gradual depreciation for these cars that are being sold at over MSRP currently
buying over MSRP is something that seems very counterintuitive to me, I just really like the car. Really wondering if I can expect to lose everything I pay over MSRP in addition to regular depreciation
I feel lucky to be utterly unconcerned with depreciation. I bought my 922 Carrera 4S to drive it on adventures. I'll be at 30k miles by the end of November. It's not a commuter and it's not like it's the only car -- heck, I'll be at six cars in a couple of months here. The 911 is just a blast to drive.
Even with miles, 911s hold their value very well, but these things aren't collectibles. They're meant to be driven and enjoyed, ie. not rot in place in a garage. Drive your cars. Enjoy them. The return on investment here is the memories that you create with them. Given the adventures that I've had, I'm very pleased with the ROI on my 992C4S.
You’re paying the $15k for the privilege of owning that car right now and not waiting. You’re never going to recoup that, but you’ll own a Targa and that’s obviously worth something to you.
Barring some massive economic upheaval that craters demand, there likely isn’t going to be a sudden correction on these cars. People want these cars and there are a lot of folks on the sidelines waiting for ADMs and market adjustments to come down. That being said, depreciation will likely be with us again in a couple of years.
If you are buying now, you are “buying high” and if the plan is to sell it in two years, in all likelihood, you will be “selling low”. As we have seen, a lot can happen in two years. In two years, you may decided to get another car and hold onto the Targa until the kiddo fits in the backseat. Or you may find values to be insanely good and just sell it.
Just remember, these 911s are mass produced by robots in the tens of thousands per year — they’re not collectible or an investment vehicle, no pun intended.
Yes, there should be a return to normal and some correction. However, everything that I am seeing from supply side logistics and manufacturing suggests a 2023 at the earlier approach to returning to a new normal and that we will not return to the normal of old. No crystal ball on how long values will remain high, or what demand will look like, however automakers will continue to face delays for some time, and as a result prices should remain fairly high. That said, paying $15k over MSRP for essentially a new used car, the $15k is a sunk cost. Expect to lose that at a minimum over 1-2 years. Beyond that, hard to know how much off MSRP you will lose in that time.
Take out depreciation for a minute. Because regardless of what any of us say, there will be depreciation -- it's just a matter of when and how much, and none of us really know what those two variables will be.
So that said, ask yourself this, "at the asking price, am I comfortable buying the car or will using the money I would have used for the car on something else make me happier?"
Your answer to that question should determine whether you should buy the car or not, not based on some indeterminate depreciation calculus.
Take a broad view.
If you buy the car you get a 992. Fantastic result. This is a certainty
If you don't you will just get a bit older waiting. This is also a certainty.
No one can predict the future.
What I can say with 100% accuracy is that for the last 30 years 911s have depreciated less than just about any other vehicle available. Some have appreciated as we know.
The track record of 911s holding value is superb because of the fundamentals. They are superb cars.
The fundamentals are not going to change. EVs are not going to take over the planet in the next 15 years. Dont worry about that.
The reason I purchased a new 911 was that 5 year old 911s of any spec were all £65k + with no warranty from private sellers, when I started looking.
Nothing has changed, so dont over think it.
A brand new C2 was only £85k.
So I say just get on with it. The world might end tomorrow, stop worrying and get it.
Last edited by politeperson; Oct 12, 2021 at 04:01 PM.
The market for used 911s is impossible to predict, and the crystal ball gets hazier when you're talking about GTS/Targa models right on up through the GT cars. It has never made any sense that 991.x GT3s are so precious used when there were literally thousands of them made and shipped to North America, and the supply of them used generally exceeds demand (based on how many are always for sale). A 2021 Targa 4s could conceivably follow the pattern of a GT3 going forward and never drop under MSRP until 5+ years old with significant miles. Or the FOMO factor could dissipate in 2022/23 and prices will fall from the stratosphere. Bottom line is no-one knows, however it's always wise to keep in mind that past market behavior is not necessarily predictive of future buy/sell dynamics.
I heard a statistic on a recent YouTube review (I forget which one) that Porsche usually produces 1100-1200 911s per month and for 2021 there have only been 1800 produced for the year. I have no idea if that number is accurate but what I am seeing on the GT3 board is that buyer's delivery dates are being pushed out so the supply chain issues aren't getting better anytime soon. I have a 992TTS that should be delivered in December. I was able to purchase it with no ADM and my Touring allocation should be available within the next few months, also with no ADM. I'm hopeful that I will basically be able to drive the TTS "for free" while waiting for the Touring and then trading it in.
As far as paying over for a Targa 4S, they are relatively difficult to come by. If you're only keeping it for a year you can probably get out without taking too much of a hit.
I heard a statistic on a recent YouTube review (I forget which one) that Porsche usually produces 1100-1200 911s per month and for 2021 there have only been 1800 produced for the year. I have no idea if that number is accurate but what I am seeing on the GT3 board is that buyer's delivery dates are being pushed out so the supply chain issues aren't getting better anytime soon. I have a 992TTS that should be delivered in December. I was able to purchase it with no ADM and my Touring allocation should be available within the next few months, also with no ADM. I'm hopeful that I will basically be able to drive the TTS "for free" while waiting for the Touring and then trading it in.
As far as paying over for a Targa 4S, they are relatively difficult to come by. If you're only keeping it for a year you can probably get out without taking too much of a hit.
The number is down, but it's not that far down. Many dealers aren't going to see any more new 911s this year, because things have really slowed down for Q4.
I heard a statistic on a recent YouTube review (I forget which one) that Porsche usually produces 1100-1200 911s per month and for 2021 there have only been 1800 produced for the year. I have no idea if that number is accurate but what I am seeing on the GT3 board is that buyer's delivery dates are being pushed out so the supply chain issues aren't getting better anytime soon. I have a 992TTS that should be delivered in December. I was able to purchase it with no ADM and my Touring allocation should be available within the next few months, also with no ADM. I'm hopeful that I will basically be able to drive the TTS "for free" while waiting for the Touring and then trading it in.
As far as paying over for a Targa 4S, they are relatively difficult to come by. If you're only keeping it for a year you can probably get out without taking too much of a hit.
YouTube is a clown show.
2021 Q1, Q2 and Q3 production was up from 2020 and slightly down from 2019.
I heard a statistic on a recent YouTube review (I forget which one) that Porsche usually produces 1100-1200 911s per month and for 2021 there have only been 1800 produced for the year.
Not that I doubt your source but is that new car sales or all Porsche sales (including CPO)? Curious because the three dealers I have relationships with all say their allocations are way down over last year but they have made it work buying and selling CPOed 911s (all anecdotal of course). So something is not adding up with those numbers for me, unless demand has shot way up and dealers “feel” like they are getting less allocations when in reality they are getting the same or more just pre-selling them, which could 100% be possible.
Last edited by Thescout13; Oct 12, 2021 at 07:02 PM.
things to think about
a 2021 Targa 4S just sold local to me for 30 K above MSRP
Targa traditionally depreciated less than the regular 911
current market is crazy high/Bubble, so when market corrects/Bubble bursts, it usually over corrects
buying a 2021 this late in the year , the car will be three model years old in two years.
but overall the way I do it , I expect the worse , and hope for the best
so worst case scenario : you lose the 15 K plus 30 % of the MSRP ... trade in
best case scenario : you lose the 15 k plus 10-15 % of the MSRP .... trade in
I feel lucky to be utterly unconcerned with depreciation. I bought my 922 Carrera 4S to drive it on adventures. I'll be at 30k miles by the end of November. It's not a commuter and it's not like it's the only car -- heck, I'll be at six cars in a couple of months here. The 911 is just a blast to drive.
Even with miles, 911s hold their value very well, but these things aren't collectibles. They're meant to be driven and enjoyed, ie. not rot in place in a garage. Drive your cars. Enjoy them. The return on investment here is the memories that you create with them. Given the adventures that I've had, I'm very pleased with the ROI on my 992C4S.
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992 Depreciation
