The longer that time goes on, the lower that GT3/Touring prices will go. I think the GT3 will get to around MSRP sometime in 2023 but don't expect prices to crash.

 

Yup, and this is why this community is inferior to many others, thanks for proving the stereotypes correct. Really an unnecessary comment.

 

Let's have a gentleman's wager that they (Touring) will be more than 7% above MSRP for an average build ($195K) by 10-19-2023. I will take the over. Deal?

 

From what I have read, a Porsche 992 GT3 should drive and feel just the same during a recession.

 

It actually drives better. Less traffic....

 

My guess is they do not see MSRP with low miles in the next 18 months. Current market on touring is $60-$80K, this is down from up to $125K. Initial launch was $30K for winged, I think this is the price range it reverts back to next year. I would be willing to pay $25K-$30K for a touring, a little less for winged. I honestly can not wait to get out of these threads and have a car, would much rather complain about lightweight glass breaking.

 

he’s a kook

 

Maybe being Captain Obvious here, but some quick off-the-cuff thoughts:

The magnitude of the 'correction' (across asset classes) will be a function of several factors, one of which is how deep (and long) recession lasts. Let's face it, we have already been in a recession by all objective / quantitative measures (e.g. central banks / FHLBs define such as 2 consecutive quarters of shrinkage - which we have had). And in GT3's case - its production numbers. In another thread there are some lifecycle (992.1 GT) production figures shared that look awfully small (e.g. 78 MY23 manual Tourings). While source seems credible, having a hard time see PAG going that route. But hey, with supply chain issues and 3RS and 4RS in production it may not be by direct choice in light of the other headwinds.

Even if there are say 2-3K cars available, it is a vast country, there will be a multiple of ppl that are ready, willing, and most importantly - able - to buy regardless of economic climate. Also, speculators would have learned their lesson, weeded out, and reckon less cars may change hands (more and more would have ended in the hands of the ultimate end-user, than being used as trading chips). Lastly, we should consider the sharply upward trending MSRPs on new models. High tides raise all boats. There was a nearly $9K price increase in MSRP between MY22-23, and the price delta (MSRP for MSRP) with the RS is at an all time high. I am pretty sure on the back of both inflationary pressures and historial demand 992.2 GT3 MSRP is going to be significantly higher than MY22, that will further fuel 992.1 price 'resiliency'.

Naturally there are other factors that all will come into play (loan rates, to lesser extent fuel costs, etc.) as at the end this is a multi-factor phenomenon, and while I can see ADMs subsiding, trading materially below MSRP in the immediate/short run (next yr) seems unlikely to me at least.

 

I would tend to agree with many of your points, especially this one:

"Even if there are say 2-3K cars available, it is a vast country, there will be a multiple of ppl that are ready, willing, and most importantly - able - to buy regardless of economic climate."

Those production docs that you mentioned look legit to me and others that I know at Porsche.
2,893 GT3's for the 2022 calendar year and 823 of those are Tourings of which 594 are manual.
That's a relatively small batch of vehicles.

On another note, an easy way for Porsche to get rid of the ADM game would be to increase the MSRP of the car.
I believe that such will be the case as the NA engine heads out to pasture for the final time.

 

Ulterior
Because lamp fan ham sandwich
Tartan

 

And what will happen to the car market when car loan rates approach 10%?

 

Nothing, because every 911 poll I've ever seen, everyone pays in cash.

 

I'm def not a doom and gloom person, think the much talked about '23 recession won't be much of a thing. The 08 recession and the predicted '23 recession are vastly different.
In 08, I went in for an oil change on my Z4 and walked out with a new 08 E90 M3 because the dealer couldn't give away its inventory. Had like 23k off with 5-min negotiating because I was on lunch lol
These days, inventory is A LOT lower, even if it's improving, with people "happy" to pay MSRP, so quite a change in consumer expectation.

 

Today, the EU officially banned the internal combustion engine in 2035, with intermediary phases between 2025 and 2030.

EU strikes ‘historic’ deal to ban combustion-engine cars by 2035 | The Straits Times

 

Sure hope they have enough energy to generate electricity because they won't be getting oil and natty gas from uncle Putin.