Bye bye manuals
09-16-2015, 12:25 PM
#1
Rennlist Member
Thread Starter
09-16-2015, 12:43 PM
#2
Banned
Don't need gearboxes or transmissions for that matter when every Porsche will become Electric drive eventually. They will be rolling them out as early as 2018. No surprise than.
http://money.cnn.com/2015/09/15/auto...car-mission-e/
http://money.cnn.com/2015/09/15/auto...car-mission-e/
09-16-2015, 12:46 PM
#3
Race Director
09-16-2015, 12:51 PM
#4
Porsche hasn't said they're not going to offer a manual. They said they're not going to develop a new one. The indications are that the current manuals will be in the car for another 10 years.
It's easy to see why they're moving on. Porsche has said only 10 percent of their sports car buyers want a manual. And since most of that group is comprised of older folks who will be dying/stopping driving within the next 15-25 years, it would make no sense to continue to spend R&D $ on a new manual. In 15 years, their target market will be almost solely comprised of people who've never even driven a manual. You'd be selling a lower performing solution for nostalgia purposes. Makes zero sense. The manual transmission is going the way of the manual spark advance.
It's easy to see why they're moving on. Porsche has said only 10 percent of their sports car buyers want a manual. And since most of that group is comprised of older folks who will be dying/stopping driving within the next 15-25 years, it would make no sense to continue to spend R&D $ on a new manual. In 15 years, their target market will be almost solely comprised of people who've never even driven a manual. You'd be selling a lower performing solution for nostalgia purposes. Makes zero sense. The manual transmission is going the way of the manual spark advance.
09-16-2015, 01:40 PM
#7
Nordschleife Master
Bye bye manuals
Originally Posted by Archimedes
And since most of that group is comprised of older folks who will be dying/stopping driving within the next 15-25 years
Face it,if you're a teenager with zero interest in cars,you won't care,but if you develop an interest,mostly from your parents,and discover a manual transmission,you won't want to drive anything else.
Trending Topics
09-16-2015, 01:41 PM
#8
I suspect there will be a core of buyers who will continue to prefer manual, much buyers of high end watches still look for mechanical movement a half century after quartz surpassed it in cost, accuracy, efficiency, etc. One way you can take the rise in vintage car values is a signal of increasing demand for throwback technologies in the face of new one.
It's hard to say how big the manual market will be over time; Porsche was clearly shocked by the demand for the manual only GT4, so they don't always get it right. However given that the last manufactures offering manual will get essentially the whole market I suspect it's a good size number, and could justify the continuation or evolution of a transmission. Having been connected with a couple transmission development programs, these are not really that expensive to develop.
The issue it that the manual transmission no longer stands on its own, and the future this will be doubly true. Turbos are an interim step for Porsche- hybrid is the technology that's necessary to hit future emissions and efficiency targets. And hybrids/ electric motors don't play nicely with traditional manual transmissions. There are technical challenges: Tesla went through three different two-speed gearbox designs (by Recardo and others) before removing shifting entirely for their Roadster. There are emissions challenges: PDK helps efficiency, and given that the entire point of hybrid is efficiency, manual is a step in the wrong direction. There are integration and drive-ability challenges, with entirely new strategies to deal with shift shock, etc required. And how does manual work with active safety systems, self driving technology, etc?
Most of these are solvable problems, but they are far bigger than a simple transmission. If the 9A2's replacement lacks ancillaries like the 918 engine to save weight, it won't be able to run without at least a small hybrid system. At which point you're talking about designing not just a transmission but an engine and much of a chassis in order to have the manual, normally aspirated car many of us would prefer. Porsche likely can't afford to divide its resources that way unless a) there is far larger demand for a manual than anyone expects, and b) they have headroom in corporate average emissions standards for that volume of cars. That combination appears very unlikely...
In light of this, expect the resale values for manual enthusiast cars, ie manual Carrera GTS, GT4, etc, to diverge sharply from PDKs in the future. You'll always be able to get a "better" automatic. You many never be able to get a better manual.
It's hard to say how big the manual market will be over time; Porsche was clearly shocked by the demand for the manual only GT4, so they don't always get it right. However given that the last manufactures offering manual will get essentially the whole market I suspect it's a good size number, and could justify the continuation or evolution of a transmission. Having been connected with a couple transmission development programs, these are not really that expensive to develop.
The issue it that the manual transmission no longer stands on its own, and the future this will be doubly true. Turbos are an interim step for Porsche- hybrid is the technology that's necessary to hit future emissions and efficiency targets. And hybrids/ electric motors don't play nicely with traditional manual transmissions. There are technical challenges: Tesla went through three different two-speed gearbox designs (by Recardo and others) before removing shifting entirely for their Roadster. There are emissions challenges: PDK helps efficiency, and given that the entire point of hybrid is efficiency, manual is a step in the wrong direction. There are integration and drive-ability challenges, with entirely new strategies to deal with shift shock, etc required. And how does manual work with active safety systems, self driving technology, etc?
Most of these are solvable problems, but they are far bigger than a simple transmission. If the 9A2's replacement lacks ancillaries like the 918 engine to save weight, it won't be able to run without at least a small hybrid system. At which point you're talking about designing not just a transmission but an engine and much of a chassis in order to have the manual, normally aspirated car many of us would prefer. Porsche likely can't afford to divide its resources that way unless a) there is far larger demand for a manual than anyone expects, and b) they have headroom in corporate average emissions standards for that volume of cars. That combination appears very unlikely...
In light of this, expect the resale values for manual enthusiast cars, ie manual Carrera GTS, GT4, etc, to diverge sharply from PDKs in the future. You'll always be able to get a "better" automatic. You many never be able to get a better manual.
09-16-2015, 01:47 PM
#9
I'm 40, and me and my peers are manual enthusiasts. This last weekend I was autocrossing with a few guys in their 70s and 80s. One's 81 with a GT3, one's 72 with a 600 whp 996 GT2. I hope to be those guys in 30-40 years, so they'd sell at least a few.
09-16-2015, 02:26 PM
#10
As one of the newer generation of car enthusiasts I have to say that I didn't enjoy driving a manual at all when I gave it a try. I really hated the extra complication, work and concentration needed to drive the car. Having learned on an automatic then moved on to an SMG in my M3, I can say comfortably that I do not want a manual in any of my cars. Why would I ever want to make driving my car more stressful?
I feel that PDK, SMG, DCT, etc offer a more fluid driving experience that allows me to focus on other aspects of operating the car. Is it a lazy way of changing gears? maybe? At the end of a long work day when I'm tired and stressed the last thing I need is driving my car to be more work than it needs to be. I daily drive 60km a day in traffic so maybe I'm biased but I don't ever find myself wishing I had a manual.
I feel that PDK, SMG, DCT, etc offer a more fluid driving experience that allows me to focus on other aspects of operating the car. Is it a lazy way of changing gears? maybe? At the end of a long work day when I'm tired and stressed the last thing I need is driving my car to be more work than it needs to be. I daily drive 60km a day in traffic so maybe I'm biased but I don't ever find myself wishing I had a manual.
09-16-2015, 02:31 PM
#11
Nordschleife Master
Bye bye manuals
Originally Posted by Winegums
As one of the newer generation of car enthusiasts I have to say that I didn't enjoy driving a manual at all when I gave it a try. I really hated the extra complication, work and concentration needed to drive the car. Having learned on an automatic then moved on to an SMG in my M3, I can say comfortably that I do not want a manual in any of my cars. Why would I ever want to make driving my car more stressful?
I feel that PDK, SMG, DCT, etc offer a more fluid driving experience that allows me to focus on other aspects of operating the car. Is it a lazy way of changing gears? maybe? At the end of a long work day when I'm tired and stressed the last thing I need is driving my car to be more work than it needs to be. I daily drive 60km a day in traffic so maybe I'm biased but I don't ever find myself wishing I had a manual.
I feel that PDK, SMG, DCT, etc offer a more fluid driving experience that allows me to focus on other aspects of operating the car. Is it a lazy way of changing gears? maybe? At the end of a long work day when I'm tired and stressed the last thing I need is driving my car to be more work than it needs to be. I daily drive 60km a day in traffic so maybe I'm biased but I don't ever find myself wishing I had a manual.
Nobody is talking about a daily driver that you get stuck in traffic with and drive when you're tired coming home from work.
We're talking about sport cars that you drive for the pleasure of driving,for emotions,for involvement,for the pure sound.
09-16-2015, 02:31 PM
#12
I feel that PDK, SMG, DCT, etc offer a more fluid driving experience that allows me to focus on other aspects of operating the car. Is it a lazy way of changing gears? maybe? At the end of a long work day when I'm tired and stressed the last thing I need is driving my car to be more work than it needs to be. I daily drive 60km a day in traffic so maybe I'm biased but I don't ever find myself wishing I had a manual.
For the weekend, however, I'd argue that priorities shift. At least mine do...
09-16-2015, 02:35 PM
#13
I suspect there will be a core of buyers who will continue to prefer manual, much buyers of high end watches still look for mechanical movement a half century after quartz surpassed it in cost, accuracy, efficiency, etc. One way you can take the rise in vintage car values is a signal of increasing demand for throwback technologies in the face of new one.
It's hard to say how big the manual market will be over time; Porsche was clearly shocked by the demand for the manual only GT4, so they don't always get it right. However given that the last manufactures offering manual will get essentially the whole market I suspect it's a good size number, and could justify the continuation or evolution of a transmission. Having been connected with a couple transmission development programs, these are not really that expensive to develop.
The issue it that the manual transmission no longer stands on its own, and the future this will be doubly true. Turbos are an interim step for Porsche- hybrid is the technology that's necessary to hit future emissions and efficiency targets. And hybrids/ electric motors don't play nicely with traditional manual transmissions. There are technical challenges: Tesla went through three different two-speed gearbox designs (by Recardo and others) before removing shifting entirely for their Roadster. There are emissions challenges: PDK helps efficiency, and given that the entire point of hybrid is efficiency, manual is a step in the wrong direction. There are integration and drive-ability challenges, with entirely new strategies to deal with shift shock, etc required. And how does manual work with active safety systems, self driving technology, etc?
Most of these are solvable problems, but they are far bigger than a simple transmission. If the 9A2's replacement lacks ancillaries like the 918 engine to save weight, it won't be able to run without at least a small hybrid system. At which point you're talking about designing not just a transmission but an engine and much of a chassis in order to have the manual, normally aspirated car many of us would prefer. Porsche likely can't afford to divide its resources that way unless a) there is far larger demand for a manual than anyone expects, and b) they have headroom in corporate average emissions standards for that volume of cars. That combination appears very unlikely...
In light of this, expect the resale values for manual enthusiast cars, ie manual Carrera GTS, GT4, etc, to diverge sharply from PDKs in the future. You'll always be able to get a "better" automatic. You many never be able to get a better manual.
It's hard to say how big the manual market will be over time; Porsche was clearly shocked by the demand for the manual only GT4, so they don't always get it right. However given that the last manufactures offering manual will get essentially the whole market I suspect it's a good size number, and could justify the continuation or evolution of a transmission. Having been connected with a couple transmission development programs, these are not really that expensive to develop.
The issue it that the manual transmission no longer stands on its own, and the future this will be doubly true. Turbos are an interim step for Porsche- hybrid is the technology that's necessary to hit future emissions and efficiency targets. And hybrids/ electric motors don't play nicely with traditional manual transmissions. There are technical challenges: Tesla went through three different two-speed gearbox designs (by Recardo and others) before removing shifting entirely for their Roadster. There are emissions challenges: PDK helps efficiency, and given that the entire point of hybrid is efficiency, manual is a step in the wrong direction. There are integration and drive-ability challenges, with entirely new strategies to deal with shift shock, etc required. And how does manual work with active safety systems, self driving technology, etc?
Most of these are solvable problems, but they are far bigger than a simple transmission. If the 9A2's replacement lacks ancillaries like the 918 engine to save weight, it won't be able to run without at least a small hybrid system. At which point you're talking about designing not just a transmission but an engine and much of a chassis in order to have the manual, normally aspirated car many of us would prefer. Porsche likely can't afford to divide its resources that way unless a) there is far larger demand for a manual than anyone expects, and b) they have headroom in corporate average emissions standards for that volume of cars. That combination appears very unlikely...
In light of this, expect the resale values for manual enthusiast cars, ie manual Carrera GTS, GT4, etc, to diverge sharply from PDKs in the future. You'll always be able to get a "better" automatic. You many never be able to get a better manual.
09-16-2015, 02:43 PM
#14
Nordschleife Master
Bye bye manuals
First went the steering feel,then went the tranny,now goes the sound. What's next? Brake pedal,then gas pedal? Might as well take the steering wheel too and we'll be spectators eating 
during our trips. But Hey " it's safe and environmentally friendly ". 
during our trips. But Hey " it's safe and environmentally friendly ".
09-16-2015, 02:44 PM
#15
Burning Brakes
First it was turbo for N/A. But the actual realization that manuals may seize to exist makes me lose sleep...seriously. It's not a PDK vs MT thing, of course. But as a younger guy, almost every one of my friends is unable and never was motivated to learn manual. That always annoyed me especially when you think that the great sports cars of my generation (Testarossa, Countach, NSX, 911 Turbo) were only available in or much better performing in manual form. So if you liked cars back then you'd at least learn stick so that one day you could drive one of those. Now extrapolate that to females, and even less have ever driven a manual. I'm old fashioned in that I still think a "real sports car" should be manual (no offense to the PDK guys). But it doesn't matter what I think when 90% order PDK.
The other sad thing will be that if manual Porsches seize to exist, their price on the used market will likely make them inaccessible to most.
There are other options out there like the Mustang Shelby, Corvette, Viper, and M3/4, but none will be a Porsche.
The other sad thing will be that if manual Porsches seize to exist, their price on the used market will likely make them inaccessible to most.
There are other options out there like the Mustang Shelby, Corvette, Viper, and M3/4, but none will be a Porsche.