911T4ME

I've been through a few economic ups and downs at 63 yo. My two cents (and I just bought my 991T at most likely top market price for a long time), is that this is going to be a pretty long and painful down slide. I'm reminded of Milton Friedman's quote of "irrational exuberance" at the dot com bust. Too many millenials who haven't experienced a significant and long market downturn in their lives, easy money for house mortgages like the 2008 bubble. Markets go up and markets go down. It's been a very long ride up...

gotgolf52

All overpriced luxury items will go down. I own many Rolex watches and price has drop quite a bit lately. GMT Pepsi used to sell over $30k now offer below $25k and no buyers. Daytona stainless almost hit $50k selling for $35k now and no buyers. Used 911 will be back to normal pricing before covid era soon. People just don’t have cash to pay for these toys anymore. Real estate market impending crash when rate hit 7% end of year. Whoever paying crazy prices the last 2 years will take a massive loss. 2012 -2013 used 991 with 50k miles prolly going for $45-55k next year.

gotgolf52

All overpriced luxury items will go down. I own many Rolex watches and price has drop quite a bit lately. GMT Pepsi used to sell over $30k now offer below $25k and no buyers. Daytona stainless almost hit $50k selling for $35k now and no buyers. Used 911 will be back to normal pricing before covid era soon. People just don’t have cash to pay for these toys anymore. Real estate market impending crash when rate hit 7% end of year. Whoever paying crazy prices the last 2 years will take a massive loss. 2012 -2013 used 991 with 50k miles prolly going for $45-55k next year.

desking101

A car like that taking multiple weeks to sell is normal. I have noticed listings going down, and prices continuing to go up, for the 991.2 Carrera anyways since that is what I have been tracking for a while in the bay area (keeping an eye on my car's value). The ones that sit longer are less desirable (bland/ugly color combo, no options). Looking at them in person the condition may be subpar as well. But yes, some are simply overpriced. I don't care how many miles it has, a base black on beige 991.2 with no options and standard exhaust is not worth $110k

Bud Taylor

But not for specialty items. I just sold 2 of my cars. 1 was a 12 tsx sport wagon and 1 was an 03 wrangler. The tsx sportwagon with 76k miles took forever and eventually gave it to a dealer for 15k (KBB excellent 12,800), the second was a 2003 jeep with 104k (KBB 11k) I sold for 15,4. In my mind, if I had sold the Acura a month early 18 was possible. The dealer listed at 19,8. This was all within the last week. I also purchased remotely a 22 grand cherokee at 7% off list. I routinely see Bronco Base models with 2k in accessories for 15k over msrp. I think the bubble has popped it just hits luxury or specialty items last. In 6 months to a year if supply corrects it gonna be a buyers market.

AlexZTuned

Everyone in this thread is pointing at the economy, inflation, war, etc… no one has mentioned the primary driver. Microchip and semiconductor shortages and supply/demand is the reason dealerships are getting jack squat for 992 allocations, causing available used cars to go up in value.

There’s no “bubble” - people have no option but to buy used in most cases because new cars aren’t available, have long waiting times, or won’t come delivered with standard equipment like Nav because of the chip back orders.

Last I heard, we’re still playing catch up with chips. Dealers still aren’t getting tons of 992 allocations and as long as that happens, used cars will keep doing what they’re doing.

PorscheC2S

I agree but the realization of paying stupid amounts of money over asking price has come to an end. Dealers will have issues by years end as the discretionary spending is already slowing (Wal Mart/Target example) and now with personnel debt increasing, many will realize they are upside down in houses, cars, boats etc. and wont be able to pay for them. I'm concerned this will have long lasting (5+ years) effect.

jaymarcia

Agree about the microchip/semiconductor shortages comment. Talked to the dealer last week that sold me my car over 2 yrs ago, 992 allocations are almost non-existent due to that. Was offering to sell me a 2023 nicely-equipped 992 base cab for about $164k out the door, allocation avail this Jul (someone cancelled). Still crazy pricing. Said 2023 GT3s are going for over $100k ADM over MSRP if you can even get one. Thought prices won’t be back to pre-COVID levels until 2025/2026. Not sure I agree, but who knows with this crazy market.

ducktails

This is all true, but when it comes to discretionary luxury items; a few prominent ways to buy:
1) Cash in your RSUs/Stocks/Bonus -- all going down
2) Take on financing -- interest rates keep climbing
3) Sell your crypto/bitcoin/NFTs-- lol

That leaves "Parent's money", "Trade up/down" and "Cash sitting in the bank" - narrower buying pool

ducktails

It'll be interesting to see if investors and flippers will start unloading GT cars (someone in the above thread referred to Rolex GMTs and Daytonas, another speculative asset class that is currently tanking).

If you've got cash in the bank it would be pretty sweet to pick up a 991.2 GT3 Touring at fire sale prices :-)

(A man can dream, can't he?)

neptune36

I'm about to pull the plug on a 2016 Mercedes E550 Conv highly optioned to save miles on my P cars and have a convertible for the Summer and Fall. I know I am probably buying at peak, but being in the late 60's I go by the "P.O.L.L. theory". Percentage-of-life-left. If I waited a year for a car when I was in my 30's that one year is a much smaller percentage of total years left to live than that one year is now being in my 60's. In addition that's why I always ask for a discount when some retail outlet offers me a lifetime warranty. Much shorter liability for the warranty plan for a guy in his 60's than one in their 20's. So I'd say go ahead and buy now so long as no major flaws are noted
and the configuration has some special items.

Alc

Unlike Rolexes, vehicles are a societal necessity in most of the U.S. which is why the prices may flatten and maybe take a small dip to stabilize but prices won’t significantly drop even in a recession. I wish this were only a chip shortage problem but I’m afraid it’s more complex. I actually feel bad for the automobile industry as they try to guess what governments are going to require for powertrains since it’s no longer based on realistic emission goals. Geographically, most of the world needs gas automobiles. However, governments are forcing most affluent countries to convert to electric. This impacts prices we all pay since industry now has to do twice the R&D as in the past since governments are forcing them to change independent of market demands. Electric cars are more expensive to manufacture and other new vehicles will have to be more expensive as they blend technologies. A perfect example is the future C AMG (it’s electric, it’s a hybrid, it’s a turbo gas engine and has 2 transmissions!). The complexity is mind blowing, now all they have to do is train technicians how to fix it. The following, IMO, is causing the current stalemate between seller/buyer in the automotive market:

1. Affluent governments forcing electric cars, long-term effects of those vehicles be dammed

2. people are now stuck between paying exorbitant pricing for electric cars (that don’t fit a family of 5+ and limited range) or paying crazy gas prices along with high financing

at the end of the day everything will hold its relative value until:

1. no one can drive because gas is too expensive….then everything gas will be firesale and everything electric will be impossible to obtain

…or…

2. the government changes to maintain a market approach (with no subsidies) and/or sticks with gas after realizing electric vehicles were not THE ONLY solution (similar to switching from paper bags to plastic bags in the 80s-90s)

Laszlo_Laz

This is the most sensible response to this thread and spot on.

85Gold

Vehicles may be a societal necessity but High End cars are not!!! I fully expect by this time next year the 911 market for used cars will be back to more normal pricing, not over MSRP for 3 to 4 YO cars. GT cars will come down but not as fast except maybe the 991.1 GT3 as the extended engine warranty is getting close to running out.

Peter

wardrive

People who say prices won't dip much in cars haven't been thru any of the recent painful recessions like 2008 or 2000 or 1998 or early 1990's housing crisis. I will bet with anyone here that car prices will come down dramatically in the 2nd half of the year IF we entered a full recession. 2008 was 14 years ago and its been a nice bull run and easy gov't money for the past 10 years.

The buying pool for luxury cars will start to really dwindle except for the ones who have cash and lots of money for luxury spending (so yea, we'll talking 1% here).

My reasoning:
- with interest rates going up, people who are taking out car loans are going to think twice about getting out a loan for a pcar. That's going to be the newer cars since its harder to get a loan from banks for older cars like a 10 year old 911
- a down stock market (I think we'll be heading toward SPY 330 which BTW was pre-covid highs) is going to hit everyone including people with 401k and IRAs. Yes its retirement money but its all psychology, when you're paper rich you feel rich, when you're paper poor you feel poorer.
- market for older porsche cars was always based on cash buyers. When a recession hits, more people are conscious of where they will be spending their cash, especially in parking it into a sports car. I also get the other argument - some 911s a collectors and will appreciate over time. Ok maybe certain cars like the air-cooled cars of the 80's, the 964, the 993 but who really thinks that 1999 996 C2 is going to be a appreciating collectable in the down market?
- the appreciation curve for used cars was dramatic in 2020/2021 (see the FRED chart from previous post), there is alot of room for the cost of used cars to come down

This is just my opinion. I think the truth will align in the next 6 months heading to Nov elections on where we stand.