View Poll Results: Porsche Prices
Here to stay - The tide has risen
31
42.47%
Temporary - Will eventually drop back down
42
57.53%
Voters: 73. You may not vote on this poll
Porsche Prices... Temporary or Here to Stay?
03-14-2022, 08:52 PM
#16
Rennlist Member
Thread Starter
I voted on this poll but I would think that things improve dramatically as the year goes on, but then again, what do I know?
It's a huge dumpster fire of:
stock market worries
Instability with oil
high gas prices
War with potential to escalate even worse
China involvement
Supply chain issues with chips and much more...long lead times on various items, which holds up production
Sinking ships, literally
Danger with electric car fires...
FFS
It's a huge dumpster fire of:
stock market worries
Instability with oil
high gas prices
War with potential to escalate even worse
China involvement
Supply chain issues with chips and much more...long lead times on various items, which holds up production
Sinking ships, literally
Danger with electric car fires...
FFS
03-15-2022, 12:09 AM
#17
I agree on all points! The only reason I'm thinking differently/more cautiously at the moment is because of said unprecedented times - If I were to buy a car now for $140k, let's say, and it were to dip back down to $120k by EOY, I'd be kicking myself for not waiting.
That said, I'm actually leaning toward holding off for now. I don't think prices are going to go any higher so, worst case, I buy a car for the same price they are now a little down the road. Best case, prices dip back down and I can drain a little less of the liquidity!
That said, I'm actually leaning toward holding off for now. I don't think prices are going to go any higher so, worst case, I buy a car for the same price they are now a little down the road. Best case, prices dip back down and I can drain a little less of the liquidity!
You're reserved cuz you don't wanna over pay. Money today is a relative thing. It's ok to be frugal about certain things but at this level, you either enjoy or you don't. This is not a 30K cruiser. It's a 100+K super car (killer) - put things in proper perspective.
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RadarP3C (03-15-2022)
03-15-2022, 12:18 AM
#18
Rennlist Member
Thread Starter
I get your thoughts, but again, buy it cuz you like/love it and don't look back.
You're reserved cuz you don't wanna over pay. Money today is a relative thing. It's ok to be frugal about certain things but at this level, you either enjoy or you don't. This is not a 30K cruiser. It's a 100+K super car (killer) - put things in proper perspective.
You're reserved cuz you don't wanna over pay. Money today is a relative thing. It's ok to be frugal about certain things but at this level, you either enjoy or you don't. This is not a 30K cruiser. It's a 100+K super car (killer) - put things in proper perspective.
03-15-2022, 11:58 AM
#19
RL Community Team
Rennlist Member
Rennlist Member
Porsche stopping production due to issues in Europe are not going to help either.
03-15-2022, 01:11 PM
#20
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Interesting thread and timely. One of my 928 clients just bought a '19 TTS and asked me more or less the same question.
My vote on the poll - Here to Stay - is based upon a 3 to 5 year time horizon.
In the short term there might be enough volatility to move pricing +/5 or even 10 percent.
In the longer term I think that if you own a desirable new-ish to "teenage" car now, that it will be worth no less(*) in 3 to 5 years than it is now.
Why?
In the short term supply chain issues will continue to constrain supply.
In the short term, constraints on automotive-grade semiconductors will not ease. The supply is inelastic in that time frame for the technology used to manufacture automotive-grade semiconductors (1), semiconductor content in cars is increasing hyperbolically (2), and automotive companies failed to understand and plan for the supply-side constraints in light of easily-projected per-unit increases in semiconductor content(3).
1) Semiconductors paid for my Porsches. I know the industry dynamics.
2) Driver aids / "self-driving", EV battery charging, massaging seats etc, etc. all require more semiconductors and as this stuff proliferates content per car goes up.
3) This was explained to me by a retired auto industry exec (and was my "missing link" in understanding WTF was going on in 2021.)
So, the semi shortage will persist for 3 to 5 years, and mostly until design changes in cars reduce the number of "chips" and/or transition to a wider range of semiconductor manufacturing tech. Supply of automotive grade semis as they are now manufactured will not increase sufficiently in this time frame to matter much.
Thus, in the 3 to 5 year time frame, supply of new cars will continue to be problematic. It will get better, but slowly. As long as new car demand continues to outpace supply by a small margin it will be a sellers market.
By the time these 3 to 5 year supply disruptions have abated, inflation will have washed away normal depreciation. Given that *actual* inflation is at least 20% now, a couple of years of that will offset depreciation.
So... in the longer term, I think that if you own a desirable new-ish to "teenage" car now, that it will be worth no less (* - on a not-adjusted-for-inflation basis - ) in 3 to 5 years than it is now.
This assumes that we don't fall into a huge pit of automotive demand destruction through disinflation, nuclear fire, plague, or government regulation.
My vote on the poll - Here to Stay - is based upon a 3 to 5 year time horizon.
In the short term there might be enough volatility to move pricing +/5 or even 10 percent.
In the longer term I think that if you own a desirable new-ish to "teenage" car now, that it will be worth no less(*) in 3 to 5 years than it is now.
Why?
In the short term supply chain issues will continue to constrain supply.
In the short term, constraints on automotive-grade semiconductors will not ease. The supply is inelastic in that time frame for the technology used to manufacture automotive-grade semiconductors (1), semiconductor content in cars is increasing hyperbolically (2), and automotive companies failed to understand and plan for the supply-side constraints in light of easily-projected per-unit increases in semiconductor content(3).
1) Semiconductors paid for my Porsches. I know the industry dynamics.
2) Driver aids / "self-driving", EV battery charging, massaging seats etc, etc. all require more semiconductors and as this stuff proliferates content per car goes up.
3) This was explained to me by a retired auto industry exec (and was my "missing link" in understanding WTF was going on in 2021.)
So, the semi shortage will persist for 3 to 5 years, and mostly until design changes in cars reduce the number of "chips" and/or transition to a wider range of semiconductor manufacturing tech. Supply of automotive grade semis as they are now manufactured will not increase sufficiently in this time frame to matter much.
Thus, in the 3 to 5 year time frame, supply of new cars will continue to be problematic. It will get better, but slowly. As long as new car demand continues to outpace supply by a small margin it will be a sellers market.
By the time these 3 to 5 year supply disruptions have abated, inflation will have washed away normal depreciation. Given that *actual* inflation is at least 20% now, a couple of years of that will offset depreciation.
So... in the longer term, I think that if you own a desirable new-ish to "teenage" car now, that it will be worth no less (* - on a not-adjusted-for-inflation basis - ) in 3 to 5 years than it is now.
This assumes that we don't fall into a huge pit of automotive demand destruction through disinflation, nuclear fire, plague, or government regulation.
Last edited by worf928; 03-15-2022 at 01:13 PM.
03-15-2022, 01:23 PM
#21
Rennlist Member
Thread Starter
Interesting thread and timely. One of my 928 clients just bought a '19 TTS and asked me more or less the same question.
My vote on the poll - Here to Stay - is based upon a 3 to 5 year time horizon.
In the short term there might be enough volatility to move pricing +/5 or even 10 percent.
In the longer term I think that if you own a desirable new-ish to "teenage" car now, that it will be worth no less(*) in 3 to 5 years than it is now.
Why?
In the short term supply chain issues will continue to constrain supply.
In the short term, constraints on automotive-grade semiconductors will not ease. The supply is inelastic in that time frame for the technology used to manufacture automotive-grade semiconductors (1), semiconductor content in cars is increasing hyperbolically (2), and automotive companies failed to understand and plan for the supply-side constraints in light of easily-projected per-unit increases in semiconductor content(3).
1) Semiconductors paid for my Porsches. I know the industry dynamics.
2) Driver aids / "self-driving", EV battery charging, massaging seats etc, etc. all require more semiconductors and as this stuff proliferates content per car goes up.
3) This was explained to me by a retired auto industry exec (and was my "missing link" in understanding WTF was going on in 2021.)
So, the semi shortage will persist for 3 to 5 years, and mostly until design changes in cars reduce the number of "chips" and/or transition to a wider range of semiconductor manufacturing tech. Supply of automotive grade semis as they are now manufactured will not increase sufficiently in this time frame to matter much.
Thus, in the 3 to 5 year time frame, supply of new cars will continue to be problematic. It will get better, but slowly. As long as new car demand continues to outpace supply by a small margin it will be a sellers market.
By the time these 3 to 5 year supply disruptions have abated, inflation will have washed away normal depreciation. Given that *actual* inflation is at least 20% now, a couple of years of that will offset depreciation.
So... in the longer term, I think that if you own a desirable new-ish to "teenage" car now, that it will be worth no less (* - on a not-adjusted-for-inflation basis - ) in 3 to 5 years than it is now.
This assumes that we don't fall into a huge pit of automotive demand destruction through disinflation, nuclear fire, plague, or government regulation.
My vote on the poll - Here to Stay - is based upon a 3 to 5 year time horizon.
In the short term there might be enough volatility to move pricing +/5 or even 10 percent.
In the longer term I think that if you own a desirable new-ish to "teenage" car now, that it will be worth no less(*) in 3 to 5 years than it is now.
Why?
In the short term supply chain issues will continue to constrain supply.
In the short term, constraints on automotive-grade semiconductors will not ease. The supply is inelastic in that time frame for the technology used to manufacture automotive-grade semiconductors (1), semiconductor content in cars is increasing hyperbolically (2), and automotive companies failed to understand and plan for the supply-side constraints in light of easily-projected per-unit increases in semiconductor content(3).
1) Semiconductors paid for my Porsches. I know the industry dynamics.
2) Driver aids / "self-driving", EV battery charging, massaging seats etc, etc. all require more semiconductors and as this stuff proliferates content per car goes up.
3) This was explained to me by a retired auto industry exec (and was my "missing link" in understanding WTF was going on in 2021.)
So, the semi shortage will persist for 3 to 5 years, and mostly until design changes in cars reduce the number of "chips" and/or transition to a wider range of semiconductor manufacturing tech. Supply of automotive grade semis as they are now manufactured will not increase sufficiently in this time frame to matter much.
Thus, in the 3 to 5 year time frame, supply of new cars will continue to be problematic. It will get better, but slowly. As long as new car demand continues to outpace supply by a small margin it will be a sellers market.
By the time these 3 to 5 year supply disruptions have abated, inflation will have washed away normal depreciation. Given that *actual* inflation is at least 20% now, a couple of years of that will offset depreciation.
So... in the longer term, I think that if you own a desirable new-ish to "teenage" car now, that it will be worth no less (* - on a not-adjusted-for-inflation basis - ) in 3 to 5 years than it is now.
This assumes that we don't fall into a huge pit of automotive demand destruction through disinflation, nuclear fire, plague, or government regulation.
Thanks for sharing your knowledge!
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worf928 (03-15-2022)
02-17-2023, 08:26 PM
#23
Burning Brakes
Originally Posted by onfireTTS;[url=tel:18028981
18028981[/url]]If a $20k drop in value over 12 months would case you major stress, don’t buy.
I have to get to the zone of “ I will enjoy the asset “ more than the up or down future value before I buy it. I’ve been offered $15 over what I paid for my Turbo S 3 years ago. Not selling. If it were worth $60k less than I paid 3 years ago. No problem.
The enjoyment I get from the ride washes the upside and downside “for me”.
If I can’t get there, I don’t buy.
Good Luck !
I have to get to the zone of “ I will enjoy the asset “ more than the up or down future value before I buy it. I’ve been offered $15 over what I paid for my Turbo S 3 years ago. Not selling. If it were worth $60k less than I paid 3 years ago. No problem.
The enjoyment I get from the ride washes the upside and downside “for me”.
If I can’t get there, I don’t buy.
Good Luck !
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02-18-2023, 12:19 PM
#24
Rennlist Member
Really great comments and perspectives here. Future is always hard to predict. I have a couple of thoughts here. The push for green energy and all that it entails is going to be a costly undertaking which will push prices up for things. Energy is at the root of most things economically. Whether it’s used to make widgets or fuel them, also, pushes for deglobalization will push prices up because we have to build and pay for local factories, etc. otoh, we have record setting velocity increase in fed funds rates and they say that it takes significant time, say 6-12 months for the economy to start feeling the rate hikes. If we take an arbitrary number of 9 months to feel the effects of the rate hikes, we are feeling a total of 0.75% only. The four 75 bps hikes have yet to be felt. Consumer credit card debt is really high and there are more defaults. I think for many areas this will lead to stagflation.
However, for the used car market, and to some extent the new car market, people will hold on to what they have for longer. Financing costs are real and it is starting to have a chilling effect on the car market in general. For Porsches, many of these cars are incidental purchases so if people are going to cut back, it’s these types of purchases imho. A counter to that is that the very rich will still get whatever and whenever so to me it’s not so black and white but, in the final analysis, I think that prices are heading a lot lower.
However, for the used car market, and to some extent the new car market, people will hold on to what they have for longer. Financing costs are real and it is starting to have a chilling effect on the car market in general. For Porsches, many of these cars are incidental purchases so if people are going to cut back, it’s these types of purchases imho. A counter to that is that the very rich will still get whatever and whenever so to me it’s not so black and white but, in the final analysis, I think that prices are heading a lot lower.
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TTG (02-18-2023)
02-18-2023, 02:12 PM
#25
Rennlist Member
Thread Starter
OP here…
I never did buy a Turbo S. Decided I couldn’t part with my C4S… And my awesome wife told me not to sell it but to wait and buy a Turbo S to “add to the collection” (which currently consists of one car) in a year or two.
Its now been about a year and prices have come down a touch. Probably about $5k averaged out. Not ready to buy one just yet but maybe in 6-12 months.
And to what some have said in this thread - Maybe the prices will increase or just hold over time, or maybe they’ll decline slightly. But I doubt they’ll ever drop drastically. And even if so, who cares… You live once and money can be replaced - Time and happiness cannot!
I never did buy a Turbo S. Decided I couldn’t part with my C4S… And my awesome wife told me not to sell it but to wait and buy a Turbo S to “add to the collection” (which currently consists of one car) in a year or two.
Its now been about a year and prices have come down a touch. Probably about $5k averaged out. Not ready to buy one just yet but maybe in 6-12 months.
And to what some have said in this thread - Maybe the prices will increase or just hold over time, or maybe they’ll decline slightly. But I doubt they’ll ever drop drastically. And even if so, who cares… You live once and money can be replaced - Time and happiness cannot!
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cpbmd (02-18-2023),
Turbo Racer (02-18-2023)
02-18-2023, 11:08 PM
#26
Where are you seeing those prices for a 991.1?
Curious because I am selling my 991.2 TTS (CPO) and I've got it marked at $154,991 right now. I don't think the 140-150K for a 991.1 is a competitive price right now. Could just be me though.
Curious because I am selling my 991.2 TTS (CPO) and I've got it marked at $154,991 right now. I don't think the 140-150K for a 991.1 is a competitive price right now. Could just be me though.
02-18-2023, 11:35 PM
#27
Rennlist Member
Thread Starter
I haven’t been shopping extensively but, in passing, have seen 991.1s listed around $135k. A 991.2 TTS at $155k sounds like a good deal to me. Are you not getting any interest? If I were currently in the market, we might be having a discussion.
02-21-2023, 04:02 PM
#28
My friend is handling the listing and for now it isn’t listed nationwide yet. Always lots of interests, just letting the process work itself out.