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RS Total US Allocations Best Estimate 1200-1500 units

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Old 06-06-2015, 06:35 PM
  #151  
FORENN
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Originally Posted by Macca
All I know is production was originally intended to cease end of February 2015, and the decision to extend was made around mid November 2014 by the production planning team...
So it was known internally for all of that time ... interesting. Thank you.
Old 06-06-2015, 06:42 PM
  #152  
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Originally Posted by sportscentury
So it was known internally for all of that time ... interesting. Thank you.
Makes one more optimistic there will be more RS's than planned well into 2016. If they don't, they are not very smart business people...clearly the demand is there.
Old 06-06-2015, 07:06 PM
  #153  
usctrojanGT3
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Originally Posted by rockitman
Makes one more optimistic there will be more RS's than planned well into 2016. If they don't, they are not very smart business people...clearly the demand is there.
Yup, they would be very stupid to leave that much money on the table....especially US dollars.
Old 06-06-2015, 07:15 PM
  #154  
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Originally Posted by sportscentury
So it was known internally for all of that time ... interesting. Thank you.
Yes it takes quite a lot of forward planning with supply partners using JIT supply chain to ensure this can happen so its a decision usually made months before the event itself. I suspect the inadvertent LWB shortage provided plenty of time to re-access the demand and volume. To be perfectly honest I do not think PAG have gone beyond the reach of their original upside production forecasts here. I believe when AP was at Goodwood in mid 2013 he stated around 3500 units would be produced. At the time many of us believed that would be including RS. Later we predicted the engine replacement would have impact to the final numbers. In actual fact I think that number is about right - I think the factory will end up producing 3500 units world wide of GT3 and 2200 RS. This is higher than previous generations but fitting with the growth in sales and the strengthening economy. What is definately unusual compared to previous production years is that the USA will recieve more than 50% of teh units. I believe there are three factors for this:

1). Poor sales in China of GT3 (50 units to date confirmed by a chinese Porsche employee). This is a cultural thing as well as a fashion thing. larger Panamera & Cayenne are much more relevant to that market it would seem.

2). Economic stability and growth. the USA is coming out of global recession quicker than any other key market for Porsche including UK, Europe & Eastern Block. Tiger and emerging economies have also been hit hard with commodities demand and values and currency. This includes markets such as Australia.

3). Currency. the USD has appreciated by 25% against the Euro in the last 18 months! PAG report profit in Euro but sell in USD MSPR in US market...
Old 06-06-2015, 10:23 PM
  #155  
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Originally Posted by usctrojanGT3
Yup, they would be very stupid to leave that much money on the table....especially US dollars.
Porsche will actually probably end up leaving more money on the table, long term, if they satiated demand, today, for the RS.
Old 06-06-2015, 10:47 PM
  #156  
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Originally Posted by ipse dixit
Porsche will actually probably end up leaving more money on the table, long term, if they satiated demand, today, for the RS.
Agreed. And correct me if I'm wrong, but hasn't this been PAG's approach from day 1 with the GT# cars ... that is, to approach but not fully meet demand?
Old 06-06-2015, 10:51 PM
  #157  
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Originally Posted by sportscentury
Agreed. And correct me if I'm wrong, but hasn't this been PAG's approach from day 1 with the GT# cars ... that is, to approach but not fully meet demand?
Meet demand -1. That is what they need to be doing. Right now they are meeting demand -250+.
Old 06-06-2015, 10:52 PM
  #158  
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Originally Posted by sportscentury
Agreed. And correct me if I'm wrong, but hasn't this been PAG's approach from day 1 with the GT# cars ... that is, to approach but not fully meet demand?
If I was on the board, heads would roll for that strategy of leaving money on the table. When they turbo charge virtually all 911's with some having punier displacement motors, they better hope they find a new market clientele as I would imagine most experienced Porsche NA motor owners will stop buying them.
Old 06-06-2015, 10:59 PM
  #159  
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Originally Posted by sportscentury
Agreed. And correct me if I'm wrong, but hasn't this been PAG's approach from day 1 with the GT# cars ... that is, to approach but not fully meet demand?
Yup.

Porsche does not consider the GT line of cars as money-makers, not directly anyway.

They're are halo cars to give that nice shine and patina of exclusivity to the brand "Porsche".

The Macan, Panamera, and Cayenne is where the $$, Euros, Yuans, etc. can be found for Porsche.

Even if Porsche AG satiated demand, worldwide, for the RS, it would amount to nothing more than a rounding error on their balance sheet. If that.
Old 06-06-2015, 11:57 PM
  #160  
Mike in CA
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Originally Posted by sportscentury
Agreed. And correct me if I'm wrong, but hasn't this been PAG's approach from day 1 with the GT# cars ... that is, to approach but not fully meet demand?
Originally Posted by ipse dixit
Yup.

Porsche does not consider the GT line of cars as money-makers, not directly anyway.

They're are halo cars to give that nice shine and patina of exclusivity to the brand "Porsche".

The Macan, Panamera, and Cayenne is where the $$, Euros, Yuans, etc. can be found for Porsche.

Even if Porsche AG satiated demand, worldwide, for the RS, it would amount to nothing more than a rounding error on their balance sheet. If that.
I agree completely. Also, to expand on those thoughts, I think the statements about Porsche "leaving money on the table" with respect to GT production are way overstated. I suspect a heavily optioned Carrera S or Cab, for example, has a lot more profit built into it than a GT3, which in contrast is a screaming bargain, as many of us have been saying over the last year. And that doesn't even begin to address the other volume models that really drive the company's revenue.

Keeping potential GT3/GT4/RS customers happy is one thing, but my guess is that the financial incentive to build more of these specialized halo cars is, as ipse pointed out, insignificant.
Old 06-07-2015, 12:36 AM
  #161  
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Originally Posted by Mike in CA
I agree completely. Also, to expand on those thoughts, I think the statements about Porsche "leaving money on the table" with respect to GT production are way overstated. I suspect a heavily optioned Carrera S or Cab, for example, has a lot more profit built into it than a GT3, which in contrast is a screaming bargain, as many of us have been saying over the last year. And that doesn't even begin to address the other volume models that really drive the company's revenue.

Keeping potential GT3/GT4/RS customers happy is one thing, but my guess is that the financial incentive to build more of these specialized halo cars is, as ipse pointed out, insignificant.
To dogpile on, even though I'm probably already at the bottom of this pile, we as owners of GT cars, either the 3 or RS, should be grateful that Porsche is limiting production of these cars.

While it may be frustrating to buy a new one, or a slightly used one, now the fact that Porsche has artificially created an excess demand for these vehicles only serves to maintain and even inflate resale values in the future.

I, for one, am quite happy with that circumstance. As selfish as that may be.

Old 06-07-2015, 12:50 AM
  #162  
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Originally Posted by ipse dixit
Yup.

Porsche does not consider the GT line of cars as money-makers, not directly anyway.

They're are halo cars to give that nice shine and patina of exclusivity to the brand "Porsche".

The Macan, Panamera, and Cayenne is where the $$, Euros, Yuans, etc. can be found for Porsche.

Even if Porsche AG satiated demand, worldwide, for the RS, it would amount to nothing more than a rounding error on their balance sheet. If that.
Very much agree with all of this.
Old 06-07-2015, 03:22 AM
  #163  
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Once PAG go full turbo on the new range of 911 later in the year I think you will find demand for the current GT3 stays strong for quite some time. The new models are after all just a wee cosmetic tart up of the 991 chassis and shape not a whole new generation...by 2017 PAG will need to double GT3 production to satiate even half the demand for a NA engine 911 for which we assume only the next gen GT3 & RS will service...
Old 06-07-2015, 11:18 AM
  #164  
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Originally Posted by ipse dixit
To dogpile on, even though I'm probably already at the bottom of this pile, we as owners of GT cars, either the 3 or RS, should be grateful that Porsche is limiting production of these cars.

While it may be frustrating to buy a new one, or a slightly used one, now the fact that Porsche has artificially created an excess demand for these vehicles only serves to maintain and even inflate resale values in the future.

I, for one, am quite happy with that circumstance. As selfish as that may be.

You're not alone, you just have the stones to say it.
Old 06-07-2015, 12:15 PM
  #165  
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Originally Posted by Macca
Yes it takes quite a lot of forward planning with supply partners using JIT supply chain to ensure this can happen so its a decision usually made months before the event itself. I suspect the inadvertent LWB shortage provided plenty of time to re-access the demand and volume. To be perfectly honest I do not think PAG have gone beyond the reach of their original upside production forecasts here. I believe when AP was at Goodwood in mid 2013 he stated around 3500 units would be produced. At the time many of us believed that would be including RS. Later we predicted the engine replacement would have impact to the final numbers. In actual fact I think that number is about right - I think the factory will end up producing 3500 units world wide of GT3 and 2200 RS. This is higher than previous generations but fitting with the growth in sales and the strengthening economy. What is definately unusual compared to previous production years is that the USA will recieve more than 50% of teh units. I believe there are three factors for this:

1). Poor sales in China of GT3 (50 units to date confirmed by a chinese Porsche employee). This is a cultural thing as well as a fashion thing. larger Panamera & Cayenne are much more relevant to that market it would seem.

2). Economic stability and growth. the USA is coming out of global recession quicker than any other key market for Porsche including UK, Europe & Eastern Block. Tiger and emerging economies have also been hit hard with commodities demand and values and currency. This includes markets such as Australia.

3). Currency. the USD has appreciated by 25% against the Euro in the last 18 months! PAG report profit in Euro but sell in USD MSPR in US market...
Thanks Macca. More evidence confirming my speculation, biggest issue to date has been the lack of transparency on future allocations. Take 2200 units x .6= 1320 units in the US- right in the middle of my estimate. So we have had approx half the allocations released so far, with 710 (posted somewhere else IIRC), or much less than half if the number from MJones is correct (which I subscribe more credibility to).


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