Likely depreciation schedule for a Cayman S?
01-08-2006, 08:27 AM
#1
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Likely depreciation schedule for a Cayman S?
OK, I'm one of those guys who isn't going to buy a NEW Porsche, ever. Just the way it is. I'm lucky enough to have had 2 preowned ones anyway.
But I feel I must have a Cayman. The question is... when will prices on used ones fall enough to be within range?
I looked at one yesterday at Maplewood Im[orts... sticker 71. I've heard that sticker on the ones without the PASM system will be like... 63?
So, how quickly do you think some of these will be getting down to the mid-low 30's?
And you rich guys: GET OUT THERE AND BUY. Or better yet, lease!
But I feel I must have a Cayman. The question is... when will prices on used ones fall enough to be within range?
I looked at one yesterday at Maplewood Im[orts... sticker 71. I've heard that sticker on the ones without the PASM system will be like... 63?
So, how quickly do you think some of these will be getting down to the mid-low 30's?
And you rich guys: GET OUT THERE AND BUY. Or better yet, lease!
01-08-2006, 11:32 AM
#2
It will probably follow Boxster depreciation right out the window. You never know though, the Cayman reviews have been sizzling hot and I sense the little middies are starting to get the broad respect that they deserve. But it seems all Porsche depreciation is not as strong as it used to be. I guess you’re looking at what, four years for your price.
01-08-2006, 01:05 PM
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based on USB lease.
at end of 36 month, cayman is 50% of msrp.
at end of 36 month, cayman is 50% of msrp.
01-08-2006, 01:20 PM
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50% at 3 years works for me...
Get out there and start leasing, guys! be sure and take really good care of the cars... or they'll ding you BAD when you turn it in!
Get out there and start leasing, guys! be sure and take really good care of the cars... or they'll ding you BAD when you turn it in!
01-08-2006, 01:37 PM
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The best time to buy a used one will be after 3 years when zillions of leased Caymans will be dumped on the market. You should then be able to pick up a good low-mileage Cayman with Porsche's extended warranty at a great price.
Of course, the best case scenario for a used-Cayman shopper is what happened with the Lotus Elise -- everyone who rabidly wants one will get it in the first year and resale values will tank starting in MY 2.
Of course, the best case scenario for a used-Cayman shopper is what happened with the Lotus Elise -- everyone who rabidly wants one will get it in the first year and resale values will tank starting in MY 2.
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01-10-2006, 10:33 AM
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Actually I think most people who lease one will probably keep them for 4 years......full warranty coverage......and then let them go. Also leases on Porsches aren't that great anymore.....Porsche has sorta learned their lesson after the Boxster glut a few years ago. These are the latest ballpark figures from Porsche for the Cayman....
Money factor = .00350 36 months--55% 39 months--53% 48 months--47%
Not that great at all. For mine I will put a substantial chunk down and finance the rest at a very low credit union type rate. Much better.....at least for me.
Money factor = .00350 36 months--55% 39 months--53% 48 months--47%
Not that great at all. For mine I will put a substantial chunk down and finance the rest at a very low credit union type rate. Much better.....at least for me.
01-10-2006, 03:16 PM
#9
well don't forget about how many CaymanS will be produced vs. how many Porsha-files will be scouring the internet for a nice second hand model.
This is car allot of people want but not many takers at the $70K.
Which leads me to believe that this will be one of the most popular used Porsches ever. I don't think most guys who have owned at least one Porsche in the past will hesitate too long about pulling the trigger when the car dips below $50K. Which will make it a great car in terms of residiual value for that 2nd owner.
Look for lots o' bids on them CaymanS in 2008-2009
This is car allot of people want but not many takers at the $70K.
Which leads me to believe that this will be one of the most popular used Porsches ever. I don't think most guys who have owned at least one Porsche in the past will hesitate too long about pulling the trigger when the car dips below $50K. Which will make it a great car in terms of residiual value for that 2nd owner.
Look for lots o' bids on them CaymanS in 2008-2009
01-20-2006, 11:29 PM
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I agree, the residual value is a good indicator of the market value, and is a guide about whether to buy out the car at the end of your own lease.
My dealer showed me Porsche NA's lease rates. The Cayman's residual (36 month lease) today is 52% -- the lowest for any of their leases. This is in contrast to the 997's residual of 58%. A low residual means that the monthly lease bills will cost you more and will make Porsche more money. It makes sense for Porsche to get as much out of the lease while the Cayman is hot, and to raise the residual later when its sales begin to slump.
When I leased my Boxster in 2001, Porsche was trying hard to stimulate Boxster sales. The residual value of the 39 month lease that year was very high, about 69% of its MSRP -- that meant that while my monthly payments were low, it was foolish for me to buy the car at the end of the lease. The high residual exceeded Blue Book value. I don't think those high residuals helped Porsche. The dealer's didn't keep the leased cars when the owners turned them in to sell as pre-owned and few of the leasing owners bought their cars at the end of the lease. My 2001 Boxster sent back to Porsche NA and sold at auction to a fleet, according to car fax.
The Cayman at today's lease -- 52% residual buy-out -- is at a price that should be well below the Blue Book value in 3 years, so it means it will be a good deal to buy it, as a pre-owned car. The guy that leased it up front will have paid almost half its cost!
The salesman thought that Porsche would be pushing up the Cayman's residual to 54% sooner or later.
My dealer showed me Porsche NA's lease rates. The Cayman's residual (36 month lease) today is 52% -- the lowest for any of their leases. This is in contrast to the 997's residual of 58%. A low residual means that the monthly lease bills will cost you more and will make Porsche more money. It makes sense for Porsche to get as much out of the lease while the Cayman is hot, and to raise the residual later when its sales begin to slump.
When I leased my Boxster in 2001, Porsche was trying hard to stimulate Boxster sales. The residual value of the 39 month lease that year was very high, about 69% of its MSRP -- that meant that while my monthly payments were low, it was foolish for me to buy the car at the end of the lease. The high residual exceeded Blue Book value. I don't think those high residuals helped Porsche. The dealer's didn't keep the leased cars when the owners turned them in to sell as pre-owned and few of the leasing owners bought their cars at the end of the lease. My 2001 Boxster sent back to Porsche NA and sold at auction to a fleet, according to car fax.
The Cayman at today's lease -- 52% residual buy-out -- is at a price that should be well below the Blue Book value in 3 years, so it means it will be a good deal to buy it, as a pre-owned car. The guy that leased it up front will have paid almost half its cost!
The salesman thought that Porsche would be pushing up the Cayman's residual to 54% sooner or later.
01-21-2006, 01:45 AM
#11
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well, you can pick up mine.
will dump it in 18 months or less.,
will dump it in 18 months or less.,
01-21-2006, 05:07 AM
#12
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Lease residual doesn't predict market value.
Lease companies cover them selves to make sure the money vlaue of the car on their books is less than the market value. They don't take any risks and they want as big a profit as possible on returned cars.
Porsche residuals here are the best in the market. The cars are generally low milage and well looked after.
The only major change here is that the 996 is now hitting the second hand market in huge numbers, many with high milages, and these are causing 996 values to drop pretty fast once they are over 5 years old. For these it is a buyers market.
For the Cayman expect five good years of high residuals.
Lease companies cover them selves to make sure the money vlaue of the car on their books is less than the market value. They don't take any risks and they want as big a profit as possible on returned cars.
Porsche residuals here are the best in the market. The cars are generally low milage and well looked after.
The only major change here is that the 996 is now hitting the second hand market in huge numbers, many with high milages, and these are causing 996 values to drop pretty fast once they are over 5 years old. For these it is a buyers market.
For the Cayman expect five good years of high residuals.
01-21-2006, 12:23 PM
#13
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The cars are generally low milage and well looked after.
___________
lol, my will be well looked after for sure.
but it aint gonna be low milage. by end of feb, it will have 4k miles on it.
___________
lol, my will be well looked after for sure.
but it aint gonna be low milage. by end of feb, it will have 4k miles on it.
01-21-2006, 11:22 PM
#14
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Originally Posted by larrylgreenhill
I agree, the residual value is a good indicator of the market value, and is a guide about whether to buy out the car at the end of your own lease.
My dealer showed me Porsche NA's lease rates. The Cayman's residual (36 month lease) today is 52% -- the lowest for any of their leases. This is in contrast to the 997's residual of 58%. A low residual means that the monthly lease bills will cost you more and will make Porsche more money. It makes sense for Porsche to get as much out of the lease while the Cayman is hot, and to raise the residual later when its sales begin to slump.
When I leased my Boxster in 2001, Porsche was trying hard to stimulate Boxster sales. The residual value of the 39 month lease that year was very high, about 69% of its MSRP -- that meant that while my monthly payments were low, it was foolish for me to buy the car at the end of the lease. The high residual exceeded Blue Book value. I don't think those high residuals helped Porsche. The dealer's didn't keep the leased cars when the owners turned them in to sell as pre-owned and few of the leasing owners bought their cars at the end of the lease. My 2001 Boxster sent back to Porsche NA and sold at auction to a fleet, according to car fax.
The Cayman at today's lease -- 52% residual buy-out -- is at a price that should be well below the Blue Book value in 3 years, so it means it will be a good deal to buy it, as a pre-owned car. The guy that leased it up front will have paid almost half its cost!
The salesman thought that Porsche would be pushing up the Cayman's residual to 54% sooner or later.
My dealer showed me Porsche NA's lease rates. The Cayman's residual (36 month lease) today is 52% -- the lowest for any of their leases. This is in contrast to the 997's residual of 58%. A low residual means that the monthly lease bills will cost you more and will make Porsche more money. It makes sense for Porsche to get as much out of the lease while the Cayman is hot, and to raise the residual later when its sales begin to slump.
When I leased my Boxster in 2001, Porsche was trying hard to stimulate Boxster sales. The residual value of the 39 month lease that year was very high, about 69% of its MSRP -- that meant that while my monthly payments were low, it was foolish for me to buy the car at the end of the lease. The high residual exceeded Blue Book value. I don't think those high residuals helped Porsche. The dealer's didn't keep the leased cars when the owners turned them in to sell as pre-owned and few of the leasing owners bought their cars at the end of the lease. My 2001 Boxster sent back to Porsche NA and sold at auction to a fleet, according to car fax.
The Cayman at today's lease -- 52% residual buy-out -- is at a price that should be well below the Blue Book value in 3 years, so it means it will be a good deal to buy it, as a pre-owned car. The guy that leased it up front will have paid almost half its cost!
The salesman thought that Porsche would be pushing up the Cayman's residual to 54% sooner or later.
It's great for us when manufacturers push cars by assuming high residuals to lower depreciation paid by the customer, but as you point out doing it too much might end up them holding an empty bag and big write-offs.
Another thing too consider is that the residual on the Cayman allows for a maximum price of $70.7K (MRM?). That means that if you spec your Cayman nicely, say up to $76.7 (not hard if you use Performance options - NO PCCB - and SatNav with Full leather), during 36months you pay 48% of $70.7K + the full $6K excess in depreciation. Very expensive!! even more than what you would pay in depreciation for a fine $88K Carrera S. Tough!
01-22-2006, 12:40 AM
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Originally Posted by mooty
well, you can pick up mine.
will dump it in 18 months or less.,
will dump it in 18 months or less.,