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What a load. Most air cooled 911's need total motor rebuilds every 90-100k miles and even 3.2 Carreras need valve guides every 50-60k. Head studs? Snap! Chain tensioners and guides wear out like crazy,,, My air cooled 911's have been way more expensive to maintain than my 928's! Plenty of 928's with 400k on them with unopened motors.
I chuckle at the myths out there!
It's the myths that do the most damage- but can be beneficial to an informed buyer/collector. EG- The 5 speed is more rare than the automatic for the early OB (1978/9) cars. MYTH! In fact, one member has posted in a thread that in Germany for example, the 5 speed cars were produced 3:1 to the automatics :O
1. Oil prices. People walked away from their mortgages for many reasons in 2007.
2. Interest rates will not become unplayable.
I understand all the US drilling rig minutia I have been investing for 40+ years and owned many oil stocks. We are 1,500,000 barrels a day down and I can't say anymore w/o being political. The 07 crash happened because of family budgets busted by OIL.
The interest on the debt is already unpayable in a REAL WORLD!
"The government set aside 5.7% of the federal budget to pay for the interest on the national debt. By the close of 2020, the interest rate on a 10-year Treasury bill is expected to be at 0.6%. In April 2020, the U.S. public debt was $24.97 trillion."
Now over 30 Trillion and rising......
So in this UNREAL interest rate environment we spend 5% of our budget on interest.If rates were correct we would be spending 8X that amount (4% instead of .6%)which would be almost 50% of the budget AND GROWING! IT IS ALREADY UNSUSTAINABLE AND UNNECESSARY! For this reason alone the FED must be ended. But also to end the boom/bust cycles that benefit their cousins on wall st.
As Mr. Hargrove says, "hear me out" because I have some sobering thoughts on the collector car market.
The Federal Reserve stopped buying MBS's (Mortgage Backed Securities) on September 15th, 2022. This is significant because it marks the beginning of real monetary tightening.
The Fed has three real tools to manage the economy:
1. It's bully pulpit.
2. Interest rates.
3. Liquidity.
My goofy A$$ explanation of those tools:
1. The "Bully pulpit" is the language the Fed uses in its policy statements, Essentially - talking the market up or down.
2. Interest rates work as incentives to stimulate or reduce investment in leveraged assets.
3. Liquidity is the big boy of the bunch, it expands or shrinks the money supply.
The Fed is using all three tools to hit the brakes as of September 15th, 2022!
1. They are talking the market down.
2. They are tightening interest rates.
3. They are tightening the money supply!
It does not take a weatherman to see which way the wind blows!
The Federal Reserve has only two mandates:
1. Financial stability
2. Full employment
The Federal Reserve sucks at its job! Instead of financial stability, it constantly blows huge bubbles and then it explodes them in a cycle of boom/bust that is outrageous.
From 1998 it massively expanded money supply and the stock market bubble burst in late 2000. But it was only a "Equities bubble" that means only the stock market cratered, those are typically 2 years to recovery. It did recover in two years.
If the stock market and housing markets collapse at the same time, it is a seven year cycle. 4 years from top to bottom, then 3 years back up to par value. From 2003-2007 The Fed blew another liquidity bubble and the stock & housing market rocketed higher. Then they dramatically tightened liquidity and crashed housing in the epic 2007 - 2013 housing collapse. I've got bsd news here... The Covid equities & housing bubble is twice as big as the housing bubble of 2004 - 2007 and the Federal Reserve is bursting the bubble right now in what will be an epic rout of both equities and the housing market. It is a seven year cycle that topped IMO in September-December of 2021. The bottom will be in 2024-2025. Housing values will not recover to todays values until 2028.
A growing economy is absolutely dependent on money supply growing. As of September 15th, it is shrinking after a huge and long term firehose of liquidity. This will absolutely affect the collector car and toy markets because toys are the first thing to go when the market crunches. My prediction is that the bottom will fall out from the lower and middle end of the market, while the top cars will drop 25% then flatten out before the next round of liquidity (bubble) gets blown in 2028. (This prediction is predicated on the Fed not changing its liquidity policy.)
What I am saying is that I expect my cars to go down in value, even though they are what I consider great examples. Fortunately, I really like them and I can ride out the storm in anticipation of resumed appreciation in 2028!.
But mark my words, "There will be a storm" and in 24 - 48 months, there will be "Blood in the streets" as far as "investing" in cars goes.
History does not repeat itself, but it sure does rhyme!
P.S. I hope no one reads this because I'll get flamed, and it is not what most of us want to hear. We all prefer to think our cars will go up forever and in a consistent manner...
P.S.S. Watch for a headline that roughly reads: "xxxxx to be named hedge fund blows up as interest rate derivative market collapses"...
Curious why you care about the value of your cars? Are you trying to sell at the top, or enjoy your car? Who cares what it’s worth.
Curious why you care about the value of your cars? Are you trying to sell at the top, or enjoy your car? Who cares what it’s worth.
He was just discussing the overall picture. I will never sell mine but have always wanted the price to be commensurate with it's position in the 80's car world - which was at the TOP! So much better than the 911 or it's italian competitors. (VOLUME is the answer, 928 sold too many)
Originally Posted by Speedtoys
Be cool if this was about 928s....
The Economic picture and other societal factors have a HUGE IMPACT on our ability to drive and maintain these cars. $5.00/gallon vs $2.00 doesn't impact you, Thurston? crime, lockdowns, german industrial collapse; wake up
I can assure you that the MS/HS students who see or work on my '79 LOVE it. They love the shape, and they love working on it. They even love sandblasting and cleaning it!
I also am forgoing the Bridge for Caffeine and Carburetors on Sunday in New Canaan CT. Look for my 1968 250SL.
Drooman, is that a pretty big get together? I was headed up the Merritt Parkway this morning to have breakfast with some old pals upstate. On the stretch from Norwalk to Fairfield I witnessed a surprising number of unusual/ vintage/ exotic cars headed south. Was thinking it might be that event. This was around 7:00-7:30 am.
Cheers
Last edited by RennHarry; 09-18-2022 at 07:01 PM.
Reason: misspelled Drooman's name! lol
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The Economic picture and other societal factors have a HUGE IMPACT on our ability to drive and maintain these cars. $5.00/gallon vs $2.00 doesn't impact you, Thurston? crime, lockdowns, german industrial collapse; wake up
Drroman, is that a pretty big get together? I was headed up the Merritt Parkway this morning to have breakfast with some old pals upstate. On the stretch from Norwalk to Fairfield I witnessed a surprising number of unusual/ vintage/ exotic cars headed south. Was thinking it might be that event. This was around 7:00-7:30 am.
Cheers
WOW. I'm local but have a Honda Pilot lol. Someday Mr. Merlin is going to hook me up with a 928 and I will be able to go and not feel ashamed.
Nice Benz BTW. You have it all, sir.
Cheers
Curious why you care about the value of your cars? Are you trying to sell at the top, or enjoy your car? Who cares what it’s worth.
There are a few good reasons to know the present value. Insurance, many people insure their cars for agreed value. Also, If the value changes significantly, this can affect the calculous for modifications, repairs, storage and maintenance decisions.
He was just discussing the overall picture. I will never sell mine but have always wanted the price to be commensurate with it's position in the 80's car world - which was at the TOP! So much better than the 911 or it's italian competitors. (VOLUME is the answer, 928 sold too many)
Agreed. In addition to the 911 fetishism that has always been and always will be, the real hurt to the collector car status of the 928 (with the exception of the movie star cars and the GTS and such) is volume. It is an uncommon and semi-rare car, but not outright rare. Add in the fact that these things rarely rust out completely and I'm sure a decent number of the 61k built across the 18 years are still around, in some capacity.
As the years march on and we part out all the sad examples things should be on the upswing again, providing other things are in order such as; the economy, fuel availability, continuous myth busting and deserved praise.
Pitty they didn't make 928 convertibles.....those would be more loved as oldtimers these days , given a wider interested group who would have spend more $ over the years to keep them maintained as a fun driver......
there seems to be two main segments of this discussion: "Car Culture" and "Bloomberg"
" Car culture" refers to the effects that drove a flat 928 market for decades then moved the market up in recent years. There's a lot to be wrung out about how the market compares to other cars through the time period, especially 911s because the 928 has ALWAYS been compared somehow to a 911 from the first drawings until today. I find it interesting that certain segments of the 928 market have eclipsed comparable 911s (money value wise) in recent years. As an example compare a correct original sorted 1978 928 to a correct original sorted 1978 911SC, both in the top end of the condition scale. The 928 has generally surpassed the value of 911s in this case. The same two cars in poor condition seem to be valued the opposite way. A complete non running trashy 78 928 generally costs MUCH LESS than the comparable complete non running trashy 78 911. The quickest way to get one's head around the cultural market is to forget about the sale amounts and focus more on the comparing the price graphs of "market competitors"
"Bloomberg" refers more to the economics based debate around inflationary pressures / bubbles / money supply / stock market / Fed actions / monetary policy / tax policy etc. We can all agree that at least right now inflation is high and has PARTICIPATED in dragging up many (but not all) classic cars. The current market pressures are affecting a wide variety of asset groups in the same way they are affecting SOME 928s in an inflationary way and making the prices themselves high. It is my position that WHEN inflationary pressures subside (maybe a 2-4 year curve) it will have a limited effect on the longer term (8-10 year) cultural curve currently affecting 928s. Financial markets will suffer and rebound faster than the generally upward demographic appreciation curve for certain 928s, and if the car is still culturally significant in the next global market rebound the current prices will seem like coulda shoulda woulda. Of most importance is that hopefully we're all around then for some monday morning quarterbacking.
09-17-2022, 09:37 AM
