When you click on links to various merchants on this site and make a purchase, this can result in this site earning a commission. Affiliate programs and affiliations include, but are not limited to, the eBay Partner Network.
Shocks, I will not get to show off all the work I've done on my OB this winter ?
Heck, we can't even cross the boarder any longer.
Interesting how fragile and precarious this life of ours is. Something so small we can't even see it, shuts down life as we knew it around the whole globe.
Reminds me of an LP from late 70's, I think, called The War of the Worlds. Coincidentally, one of the better LPs in my collection.
Anyway, Martians invaded our planet and we were totally defenseless against them. Just when it looked like we were toast, our friends, viruses came to our rescue. Martians didn't have immunity against them and got wiped out !!!
I guess we better develop immunity against this "corona-virus" fast.
drive-by camp food, camping in the woods. Tents at least six feet apart. lots of hand and face washing. Can't think of a better place to be. ...
We do feel relatively safe here, except we're just 200 miles from the highest density of people and infections in the country. At the moment, people from the NYC Metro area are supposed to quarantine for 14 days when they go somewhere. They are coming up early to their second homes to escape danger. Will they do it?
But the shopping situation was quiet this morning. Nancy's cousin came to do shopping, too, and reported that he'd just purchased a 2003 BMW Z4 - silver over red, 26K miles. Life will go on when the snow melts and the virus is gone.
Liquor stores (package stores to you, Dave?) are considered essential. Local distilleries are producing craft hand sanitizer. Cats and dogs living together...
The curves I posted five weeks ago were roughly correct in one way: cases are increasing at about 30,000 per day (certainly an undercount due to testing limitations). On the other hand, the peak has passed in the metro NYC area, suggesting it may peak here in a few weeks or a month, maybe. 137 cases (likely many more) in Warren County (pop. 65,000) as of this morning.
Every June event up here has been cancelled or postponed, including Americade, billed as the largest non-specific motorcycle gathering in the country. They are currently talking about having a much-altered event in August. I'll be thinking along these lines myself if at all reasonable. A bigger campfire area means sitting back farther and more separation (in progress). Longer marshmallow sticks. Red and green name badges indicating antibody status. I'm half-serious!
Love the nerdy stuff, Dave. Had to look it up: Receiving Operator Characteristics, an approach for scoring classification tests that combines false positives and false negatives in a single, deliciously arcane graph. Availability of covid-19 antibody tests is good - I think you can get 'em on Craigslist.
Love the nerdy stuff, Dave. Had to look it up: Receiving Operator Characteristics, an approach for scoring classification tests that combines false positives and false negatives in a single, deliciously arcane graph. Availability of covid-19 antibody tests is good - I think you can get 'em on Craigslist.
Receiver Operating Characteristic. Anyone discussing detectors (whether for C-19 or for trucks crossing in front of Teslas) should understand this term and the implications of that which it describes.
TL;DR:
- no detector - NO. DETECTOR - is perfect.
- every detector - EVERY. DETECTOR - has something that functions as a gain that can be used to change the false/true positive/negative rates along the ROC curve.
I spent 8 years living in this space. “AI” systems are just networks of detectors.
I'm changing the tagline for Camp 928 to "A gathering of erudite owners of Porsche 928." Everyone qualifies, since their cars would not make it here otherwise.
Metallurgists only know how to cut up busted things, look at them under a microscope, and mutter inanities. But about 25 years ago I used neural network data analysis - very trendy at the time - to figure out the effects of Cr, Nb and Ta on the ductility of gamma titanium aluminide alloys. Non-linear, non-monotonic effects. Or so I claimed while tight-assed statisticians raged about error statistics. Different realms.
Engineers make decisions as if a bear were chasing them. Scientists are eaten by bears. I just made that up; it needs another sentence about the role of bear detection/avoidance.
03-21-2020, 10:49 AM
