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Hi Jim & Don^^, In CT but Keegan RL handle: Fox_ drove around the Rockport/Aransas area and reported back with his review (w pics) on link above. Cell service is spotty at best and land lines are kaputz in the area. Barb & Herman are fine but there man cave, 928 & MB convertible are toast. Dinsdale texted and said they are without power but fine. T
My masters degree is in paleoflood hydrology - including a focus on hydrometeorology of flooding from dying hurricanes/tropical storms as part of my thesis and published research. There has never been a storm like this in the historical record. Camile and Agnes were famous for inland rainfall and flooding, but they moved north and east due to typical prevailing west to east steering winds. The lack of these winds and some blocking high pressure is letting Harvey churn in place. Over the next few days it will drift south again and tap more of the Gulf moisture and looks like it will have a second landfall in pretty much the same areas. Be prepared for a round two of rain in Houston. I could hardly believe a report today that one location near Houston has had 50 inches of rain as of this morning (correction - 50 cumulative inches expected). This amount in just a few days is incredible...and if the round two happens...it's crazy. The terms 100-yr, 500-yr, and 1000-yr storm have become almost meaningless. We have entered a new climate regime where determining these intervals (which are really probabilities) is difficult. Don't assume you're safe for another 500 years after this one. Hydrologists refer to the 100-yr flood as the ".01 recurrence probability for any given year". But these probabilities are in flux now because historical record is used to determine them, and the past is no longer a good predictor of the future - mainly because the oceans are freakin' warm now. The primary heat sink of all the warming are the oceans...the sea surface temperature anomalies...above historical averages...and even more so the increased DEPTHS of warm water are scary.
But there is something encouraging in the image below. The red areas are warmer than normal (historical average). Notice the Gulf is now below normal. This is because Harvey did two things...stirred up the ocean, and extracted many nuclear bombs worth of energy out of the ocean and transferred it back to the atmosphere. Doing so makes it unlikely that the storm will intensify greatly if it drifts south again, but will restrengthen a bit because the blue doesn't mean cold...it just means below normal. It's still warm water.
Last edited by Captain_Slow; 08-28-2017 at 09:26 PM.
^^ Thanks .. concise and interesting/concerning information !! I noted the reports of 50 inches of rain on reports I was seeing, and was alarmed too. Our wettest area in this State, where there are Hydro Electric storage dams, is about 120 inches maximum per year.
We think the UK is a wet country and we get 30 inches of rain a year!
First and foremost getting everyone through this safely is the first priority and you seem to be doing this quite well - after that the 928's. I have exprienced two of those things over here- not fun- and what hit us was relatively minor. We were geared up to handle the heat but not the water.
Thanks for the background, Jon. My father got flooded by several 100-year storms when he lived up a river from the Chesapeake Bay. I'd rush down to help, do what I could (little), and go back home.
A storm itself is bad, but short compared to the long recovery period, even for this unusually long storm. Everyone needs the same stuff and the same services. If your generator goes out, you're hosed. Those without money are hosed. The disruption continues long after the news trucks depart - that's gotta be the worst part.
I hope it ends as early as possible for those affected.
Glad you are all safe. With destruction of this magnitude, recovery can take years. We in south Louisiana know your plight and sympathize with you greatly. Some our residents in western Louisiana are in the same flood danger. Prayers go out to you all.
We got water in the house last night about 11. Now the clean up begins. The water is still high, so we can't even get a crew in to tear out the walls yet. Nothing like tearing out baseboards, trim and flooring that you just installed months ago... Could have been much worse though. We had less than an inch in the house and do have flood insurance which paid out very good last after last year's flood. It's still raining hard, so could get it again!
Tho I do not know most of you guys or girls you are in my prayers and my thoughts and i wish you all well and hope for the best for you and yours.I used to live in CT now in FL and ME Be well and if somebody needs part or pcs. for a wet 928 i will help if i can. Ray
No 928 content. I'm currently in SW Houston, near Katy. It's a freaking mess in a lot of places. My son got a few inches in the house last night, and will have a bit more overnight tonight. He got evac about noon today. Our other place further west is dry, but water is about 8" from the garage level. May get wet tonight.
The models are showing the center moving NE later today, and into tonight. Hoping it dries out by late tonight, and we can get back to the houses safely and start cleanup. Of course, many other 928-ers had worse, and condolences go out to them.
Look closely and you'll see the left garage door is rippled. Door was stuck approx. 2' open during the storm...tracks were a bit twisted. Guy who rents right side of building fixed and said all else looks OK. Unfortunately my two neighbors buildings just to the right of me were destroyed...sad. T
08-27-2017, 10:24 PM
