Like the title suggests.
I was discussing this with my brother, but couldn't come to a consensus in this rapid 930 price escalation.
The early cars, 75-79 and the 86-89s are pretty established, but where do the 80-85 gray market cars belong?
Closer to the early or late cars?
What price devaluation, 10-25%, none?
Thoughts?

 

IMHO: your 10%-20% is in the ballpark. If the history on the car can be proven and the mileage documented I think that the gap would be less.

As some of you recall, prior to the Air-cooled Mania many folks avoided the grey market cars because you could not always prove the history, the (real) mileage, etc. In the mid 80's there were some good cars being imported and some by shysters with "new" odometers in miles, etc.

I think that as time goes on people will continue to appreciate any nice 930.

 

It's interesting to see the 'accepted wisdom' evolve over the years. While mileage validation and documentation is a good shorthand for condition with a relatively new car, the oldest 930s are now almost 40 years old, and the newest 25. That's a lot of time for all sorts of things to happen. Including the notorious hardening and breakage of the little odometer gear! So at this point, mileage pales in relation to a thorough mechanical evaluation, well beyond a PPI. IMO euro cars deserve no discount whatsoever, and should be assessed on their independent merits. Besides, 930s are being repatriated to Germany at a brisk pace, with possibly a premium assigned to the Euro spec car...

 

IMO you hit the nail on the head. These cars are way too old to segregate the euro's from domestic. 911's from the 60's,70's,80's and 90's are the easiest to changeout or disconnect the odometers. Condition should be priority #1.

 

A lot of the grey market came here as new cars in the 80's, I know this because I was one of the sellers back then.

The biggest reason ROW cars were devalued is because Porsche dealers wouldn't service them.

The Euro is strong and a lot of these cars have gone back to Europe, I would think today, no more than 10% on ROW cars here. No difference any where else.

 

Condition, mileage, and documentation being equal I would pay at least a 10% **PREMIUM** for a largely original Euro-spec or gray market car. These were better cars from the factory, more horsepower, and the way Porsche intended them to be built. As the market for 930s increases it will become a global market where cars move around between continents more than they do now. That will cause stabilization of Euro vs US prices and I think you'll see an inversion of the pricing, much like you've seen an inversion this last year of "original" 930s being worth considerably more than modified (which used to not be the case). And a similar price inversion with 3.0-liter 930s being worth more than later 3.3-liters (possibly excluding the 1978 which should be equal footing).

Modified 930s are very cool, but with all modifications you have to take into consideration longevity of engine, quality of components, the workmanship, whether those mods have actually improved the experience or are just for massive hp numbers, and whether those modifications fit with what you'd have done.

The downside for gray-market cars imported in the 80s is how well they were converted when imported and what kind of documentation exists on true mileage (though this will become less of a deal breaker over time). Obviously you can inspect the 930 for prior crash damage, monkey business, and poor federalization.

Another change I think you'll see over time is a separation of the 1978 prices which will stay far ahead of the 1979 and that the 1979 will basically be priced similarly to 1980-1985 930s as they are virtually identical. Despite popular belief 1979 was *not* a "last year" from the 930...it just wasn't for sale in the US, but the rest of the world got them. Porsche also built a huge number of them for 1979, as compared to other years. I think that "last year" premium will disappear as the 930 market matures.

My bet is that five years from now the relative 930 market will be roughly in this order:

* 1975 3.0-liter (the ONLY first year...76 doesn't count)
* 1976-1977 3.0-liter (possible premium to 77 over 76 due to 16" wheels, brake boosted, and final iteration of 3.0-liter)
* 1989 3.3-liter (last year)
* 1979-1987 3.3-liter being roughly equivalent, possibly premium to the pre-1986 cars

I could see the 1989 930 take the second spot...but never the 1st spot.

 

From the factory, gray market cars have more HP & less weight than a US version, so that makes them worth more $ in my book. They are all too old to worry about actual milage vs actual condition.
My .02 worth.

Mark

 

Someday, someone will write an algorithm to help predict collector car prices. Some variables will include: age, desirability when new (indicators: Revell kits sold, posters on bedroom walls, period reviews), historical significance (often unclear without hindsight), scarcity (# manufactured), Cost when new (intrinsic value), size of collector 'pool,' number of 'substitutes,' macroeconomic trends etc.

I agree generally with rsnodgrass, with the following qualifiers/observations:

-Desireability new: Very high, hard to name a contemporary with greater appeal.
-historical sig: very high. Really the first commercially successful production turbo (nod to Corvair monza and Bmw) Homologation car for a generation of Porsche racecars, fashion/design leader (flares/spoilers)
-Scarcity: overall, they made a lot of them. Hence I agree with Snodgrasses parsing of the model years. The 3.0 cars as the pioneers are most significant, and the '75's are in their own class. If we were talking E-Types, we'd call out the early 'flat floor,' 'outside latch' cars as the most valuable. (excluding aluminum body racers, which has it's analog in Turbo-land too)
-Cost when new: Was it built out of intrinsically valuable materials with high stds of craftsmanship? Yes.
-Size of collector pool: Really big. you didn't have to be a car guy to recognize a turbo, and every carguy wanted one.
-Substitutes: Here is where the early 930 is somewhat unique: it debuted during a nuclear winter of alternatives for the enthusiast. The 'Last Convertible' had been built in Detroit, Muscle cars and vettes were milquetoast, The italian cars were adrift. What was there '75-'80 to excite you? Countach maybe...

Today, you can buy a Chevy SS, Kia, Mustang, endless list of mundane cars that will outperform even the last iteration of 930. Absolute performance has nothing to do with the appeal, historical place is becoming everything. The turbo is every bit as significant as the R/RS models, with the collectibility disadvantage of bigger numbers. But the commensurately bigger audience will drive valuations for years to come and the car's place in history is assured.

 

I see your point on the difference in US production 78 / 79. But there is hardly any difference when you look at the RoW numbers 78 /79.


1978
Turbo RoW = 735
Turbo Japan = 61
Turbo US = 461

1979
Turbo RoW = 820
Turbo Japan = 32
Turbo US = 1200

1989
RoW = 1216
US = 1348


If you factor in a accepted attrition rate of 37% that means there are roughly 460 78s and 516 79s RoW left. I have been informed that the 1978/79 930 have a floating rotor braking system off the 917 race car. These brakes have been NLA for decades and make these cars quite special.

 

According to the Porsche factory manuals/spec books, RoW 930's were not lighter than U.S. cars. Once the U.S. exhausts are updated/replaced, they have the same HP as Euro versions (same fuel head, etc.).

 

The weighting on your variables is likely about 90% macroeconomic trends. When the FED turns on the printing presses (Green$pan and Bernanke) the trends are up.....pretty clearly illustrated in this chart.....2008 was housing bubble.....2013 is massive global printing press liquidity bubble. Its amazing how everyone seems to think this current mega-bubble will turn out differently than any others. Enjoy the tulip festival while it lasts, because history is about to teach a valuable lesson to those with short memories.....more importantly, if you don't think this is a bubble, you may be delusional.

 

Ryan,

The ’78 and ’79 930 model years are identical except for the very few cosmetic updates to the U.S. 1980 (continue 1979 series) - chassis numbers 9309800817 to 9309801200.

Rich

 

There were several changes to the 79's as model year rolled along, early 79's were identical to 78's, the headlamp washers changed along with speedo's at different times. There are some good threads on this if you are so inclined to dig them up and read them. I would agree a 78 is generally more desirable than a 79 but it all comes down to individual car. I personally don't like the later 86-87 as much as the 78-79 but that's my personal opinion.
Phil

 

Most of the changes occurred for chassis numbers 9309800817 to 9309801200 (85 MPH speedo, flush headlight washers, Nippondenso A/C compressor, Blaupunkt **** changes, and adjustable headlight bezels).

I have not seen any price difference between '78 and '79 930's. They made less '78's than '79's but they also made less '76's than '77's but the price guides don't list a higher price for '76 Turbos.

 

Well I see from idart930, that old dogs can learn new tricks.

I never knew that side impact bars & additional smog equipment are weightless, go figure....they must be made out of a special German metal. I wonder where I can find fenders made out of this material????

As a side note, I have a 1984 German addition owners manual, along with a 1984 American version of the manual, and Dang they do display different weights for the car, hummm.....must be a typo.

Mark