Porsche PANIC
#1
Porsche PANIC
Gas under $3.00 Dallas, Ford stock at $2.50. So do I fill up the 911 or buy an investment in Ford Motor Company for the same money. I see that Porsche stock is down to about 1/3 from the high of the year and that Sept sales are down 44%. October sales may be down more.
Now, HERE is a real problem we got to worry about----- fewer new car Porsche sales mean that there will be fewer used Porsche cars for our grandchildren to buy 20 years from now (a 1988 911Carrera is now 20 years old). Along with that, student loans for college have dried up along with the entire financial system. So, combined with the lack of cars, there will be a lack of income due to no higher education. If we are forward thinking, we will not only take good care of the present 911 we own but stash away some spare parts like an engine and tranny, if they are found at a bargain price. If done well, our children/grandchildren will also enjoy the days of an exciting road machine.
Note that the Euro-Dollar is down against the US Dollar and that Europe is also in economic crisis. It may be that the foreign buyers are now a little less aggressive about buying and exporting our cars. With that black hole gone, it will give the American buyer a better chance of getting the car of his dreams. Also, with that price support gone, it may mean a more thrifty acquisition.
Now, HERE is a real problem we got to worry about----- fewer new car Porsche sales mean that there will be fewer used Porsche cars for our grandchildren to buy 20 years from now (a 1988 911Carrera is now 20 years old). Along with that, student loans for college have dried up along with the entire financial system. So, combined with the lack of cars, there will be a lack of income due to no higher education. If we are forward thinking, we will not only take good care of the present 911 we own but stash away some spare parts like an engine and tranny, if they are found at a bargain price. If done well, our children/grandchildren will also enjoy the days of an exciting road machine.
Note that the Euro-Dollar is down against the US Dollar and that Europe is also in economic crisis. It may be that the foreign buyers are now a little less aggressive about buying and exporting our cars. With that black hole gone, it will give the American buyer a better chance of getting the car of his dreams. Also, with that price support gone, it may mean a more thrifty acquisition.
#2
Rennlist Member
Very interesting analysis. I think that I heard that BMW sales are off so much (15%) that they will be closing their main plant for four days!
Regarding long-term horrors, I think that we, and most/all of the world, will recover. My belief is that it's all about controlling terrorism, preventing wackos from obtaining nukes, and using massive force should it be necessary. We must continue to fund a state-of-the-art military to protect ourselves, and that, in turn, will allow us to turn this mess around. And somebody in this country is going to have to step up, hold the crooks (in both the public and private sectors) accountable, even if prosecution is needed to send the message.
I don't want to turn your thread into an OT thread, so I'll stop now.
I agree that with the passage of time our older cars might become very precious commodities. It took collectors much longer than I ever thought it would to put Speedsters up on their rightful pedestal, it's anyone's guess how long it will take for an '80s 911 to follow.
Oh, gas is still in the high $3.00 range here...
Regarding long-term horrors, I think that we, and most/all of the world, will recover. My belief is that it's all about controlling terrorism, preventing wackos from obtaining nukes, and using massive force should it be necessary. We must continue to fund a state-of-the-art military to protect ourselves, and that, in turn, will allow us to turn this mess around. And somebody in this country is going to have to step up, hold the crooks (in both the public and private sectors) accountable, even if prosecution is needed to send the message.
I don't want to turn your thread into an OT thread, so I'll stop now.
I agree that with the passage of time our older cars might become very precious commodities. It took collectors much longer than I ever thought it would to put Speedsters up on their rightful pedestal, it's anyone's guess how long it will take for an '80s 911 to follow.
Oh, gas is still in the high $3.00 range here...
#4
Drifting
Correct me iof I am wrong, but I thought that Porsche almost went out of business back in the mid 90's until the Boxster pulled them back into the "black"?
Not many 993's were sold vs the 996.
John
Not many 993's were sold vs the 996.
John
#5
Rennlist Member
Porsche has been the most profitable car company in the world over the last five years. They now have controlling interest of VW, so I don't think that we have to worry about them. They've been flying high since the early '90s, when they hired a team of Japanese efficiency experts to get their production facilities running better. I would hope that they have a little tucked away for a rainy day!
#6
If the auto industry really, really tanks, I think Porsche is small enough to adjust what needs to be adjusted and get output to levels where they would be profitable again. Porsche is the manufacture that I would least worry about. They seem to be run very well by their management.
#7
[QUOTE]If the auto industry really, really tanks, I think Porsche is small enough to adjust what needs to be adjusted and get output to levels where they would be profitable again. Porsche is the manufacture that I would least worry about. They seem to be run very well by their management.[/QUOTE}
------------ Nimble cars equal nimble management? Maybe so, nothing stodgy about VW or Porsche. It will be a real time history lesson watching them deal with the unknown and uncharted. No doubt, the book that records the auto industry in this era will be written within the next year or so. I agree with your guys, Porsche should be at the lead in the race to survive. Is there a one stop source for that kind of info?
------------ Nimble cars equal nimble management? Maybe so, nothing stodgy about VW or Porsche. It will be a real time history lesson watching them deal with the unknown and uncharted. No doubt, the book that records the auto industry in this era will be written within the next year or so. I agree with your guys, Porsche should be at the lead in the race to survive. Is there a one stop source for that kind of info?
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#8
Rennlist Member
Porsche stock is down more than 30%, mine's back to where it was about 18 months ago, which is about 1/2 of where it was 6 weeks ago.
I was going to buy another 911 after the 1st, or some other play car, but not now. Not with the beating we've taken of late. I can only lose $12-15K so many days before it turns into a big number.
I was going to buy another 911 after the 1st, or some other play car, but not now. Not with the beating we've taken of late. I can only lose $12-15K so many days before it turns into a big number.
#10
Very interesting analysis. I think that I heard that BMW sales are off so much (15%) that they will be closing their main plant for four days!
Regarding long-term horrors, I think that we, and most/all of the world, will recover. My belief is that it's all about controlling terrorism, preventing wackos from obtaining nukes, and using massive force should it be necessary. We must continue to fund a state-of-the-art military to protect ourselves, and that, in turn, will allow us to turn this mess around. And somebody in this country is going to have to step up, hold the crooks (in both the public and private sectors) accountable, even if prosecution is needed to send the message.
I don't want to turn your thread into an OT thread, so I'll stop now.
I agree that with the passage of time our older cars might become very precious commodities. It took collectors much longer than I ever thought it would to put Speedsters up on their rightful pedestal, it's anyone's guess how long it will take for an '80s 911 to follow.
Oh, gas is still in the high $3.00 range here...
Regarding long-term horrors, I think that we, and most/all of the world, will recover. My belief is that it's all about controlling terrorism, preventing wackos from obtaining nukes, and using massive force should it be necessary. We must continue to fund a state-of-the-art military to protect ourselves, and that, in turn, will allow us to turn this mess around. And somebody in this country is going to have to step up, hold the crooks (in both the public and private sectors) accountable, even if prosecution is needed to send the message.
I don't want to turn your thread into an OT thread, so I'll stop now.
I agree that with the passage of time our older cars might become very precious commodities. It took collectors much longer than I ever thought it would to put Speedsters up on their rightful pedestal, it's anyone's guess how long it will take for an '80s 911 to follow.
Oh, gas is still in the high $3.00 range here...
Now is the perfect time to buy, for those who feel secure.
#11
80s 911 rest on that line where creature comforts come into play. Lack of efficient AC could be holding them down, along with exotic car maintenance fear, present situation excluded. Now is the perfect time to buy, for those who feel secure.
The 1982 thru 1989 911 has bucked the trend of the last month or so and there is not a flood of cars in the markets that I watch on a daily basis. Those cities are K.C. south to Houston and also Denver. S.F.Bay Area and Sacramento south to San Diego including Arizona and Vegas.
So far I don’t see a collapse in price and there is a constriction in volume of our 911s offered for sale. It may be that the cars are in “strong hands”, at least for now. Although I have been on the hunt for over a year for 911 #2, I am really glad to see some strength in our 911 market place. That joy is for two reasons—First, hopefully our guys are still right side up. Second, owning one of these cars appears to be a lot more sane than other “investments”. At least we can take a drive to get rid of some of the stress, and avoid the shrink.
#12
Porsche has been the most profitable car company in the world over the last five years. They now have controlling interest of VW, so I don't think that we have to worry about them. They've been flying high since the early '90s, when they hired a team of Japanese efficiency experts ( TOYOTA-ed) to get their production facilities running better. I would hope that they have a little tucked away for a rainy day!
Profitable? Yes.. but through money/invesment management, not vehicle profits... Controlling interest of anything doesn't mean much if no one wants your product. Would you want a controlling interest in GM right now?
I'm sure the folks at GM, Ford, Chrysler, AIG, Lehman, Merrill et al thought they too were "too big/too good etc" to fail... lets not be smug. Anyone can fail. That's the easy part. Staying relevent and sucessfull is the hard part.
Also, whose to say in 20-40 years that gasoline won't be even more expensive, relatively speaking or even available? or that all those old plastic DME chips won't be NLA..Heck.. finding good 16" tires today is hard.. can't imagine in another 10 years.. or that, heck, a car should live in perpetuity.
Cheers!
#13
Staying relevent and sucessfull is the hard part.
We now have a new meaning for the word "crisis". Powers thinks cars are dead for the next year. With the freeze in loans, it may not make much difference what you manufacture or how relevent it is-- for the short term. However, what is, is. And the P car is good, along with VW and the Z71. Hope we can keep some of them with us. After market parts for the 911 is now what Dr. Zimmerman ordered.
#14
Staying relevent and sucessfull is the hard part.
We now have a new meaning for the word "crisis". Powers thinks cars are dead for the next year. With the freeze in loans, it may not make much difference what you manufacture or how relevent it is-- for the short term. However, what is, is. And the P car is good, along with VW and the Z71. Hope we can keep some of them with us. After market parts for the 911 is now what Dr. Zimmerman ordered.