daveo4porsche

let's do some actual data:

assumptions:

my per kWh cost is $0.1254/kwh (PG&E EV-A off-peak electricity rate)
kWh's used is usage reported by the car + 8% (charging inefficiency means you use about 8% more kWh to charge the battery)
I would've been driving a BMW 5/Panamera equivalent performance version so I'll generously given it 24.6 mpg average
I'm going to be comparing the last 4 years of my Model S since Dec. 2014 - so I'm going to peg average fuel cost at $3.82/gallon since Dec. 2014

actual data:
so if you're paying $0.44/kWh or more - it's not cheaper to fuel an EV - it may still be cheaper to drive and EV due to lower maintenance costs, but it is not cheaper to FUEL an EV.

daveo4porsche

@groundhog - I think it's pretty well documented that the US grid is over/spec/capacity for evening usage - there is a vast surplus of electricity during the evenings and this has historically been the cheapest time to use that electricity - I haven't read/heard anyone predicting the demise of off-peak electricity - if anything the the trend is to make it even cheaper - Monterey county has recently moved to community sources and run power for non-profile - and their off peak rates are $0.09/kwh which is cheaper than PG&E - so I'm considering moving there.

I agree with you there is a huge synergy to be had with an EV and Solar -I'm very pleased with my Solar system covering both my home and transportation usage for the next 25 years (at least) - in that I can generate enough power to cover my needs and foreseeably have a net zero bill from the local energy provider for a very long time - the engineer in me finds it to be super cool that I am making enough power to "fuel" my transportation - something I could never do with a ICE vehicle.

The grid can't handle EV's and it will be too expensive infrastructure wise line of argument is one that I personally have never found to hold much water, and industrialized countries and states are proving that wrong with actual usage and deployments so we'll have to see how this plays out, but I humbly disagree - there is little evidence that the grid can't handle EV's and there is even less evidence that we can't handle the increased grid demand and scale the grid (which is something we have to do anyways with or with out EV because our per-capita kWh usage is growing not shrinking regardless of EV's)

the grid will scale - it has to
the cost will be handled - they have to
if we can refine billions/trillions of gallons of fuel a year - we have the power to charge EV's
and the trend is towards a cleaner grid not a dirtier grid - so over time EV's will have less impact per/mile than sticking with gas....

but you all know by now this is my position ;-)

I however hope the community has enjoy'd and benefited from my "data" based approach where I've shown how to road trip with an EV (full disclosure nothing held back) and the actual costs to drive an EV for 50,xxx mile.

I will however _NEVER_ argue that fuel cost savings justify the current additional cost of an EV - they don't
and you will pry my 911 GT3 out of my cold dead hands IF/WHEN someone produces an EV sports car than can handle a 3 day track weekend - I'm not optimistic about this prospect in the near/medium term.

ChicagoWhale

daveo4porsche

I think the 50% number will come from hybrid's and pure EV's - I'd be surprised if 20% of Porsches are pure-EV by 2025 - not at all surprised if they surpass 50% of their cars have an EV motor (in combination with a gas motor either for drive or generator)…

electric motor's are hear to stay - the question is what is the "mix" - a well designed Hybrid accomplishes many of the goals of electrification and having the gas motor mitigates some of the BEV imitations - software and geo-fencing could "mandate" EV only in congested metropolitan areas that will demand zero-emission (London for example)

RonF

This is what we see now but in 5~10 years cost of battery will come down so much it may no longer makes sense to put an ICE in the car anymore. The question people will ask then would be why bother to make a hybrid?

groundhog

The grid will be able to handle EVs but it will come with a cost that reflects what the peak draw down requirements are in terms of infrastructure upgrades to handle peak load and fast response generator capacity (by whatever means). You have to seperate apparent capacity from the ability to deliver capacity at a certain point in time.

For example as a rule of thumb, a broad array wind farm network may be able to generate 100mW on a continuous basis - however to guarantee that, approximately 800mW of capacity would be needed e.g. 50 turning at any one time out of 400 in the dispersed array.

daveo4porsche

existing grid mixes in the US have sufficient overnight capacity with out additional infrastructure requirements to meet a large EV demand curve
the existing mix of grid generation is already an improvement in terms of total emissions vs. burning gasoline directly in a car
there is _NO_ requirement to move to a renewables grid to reap benefits in terms of total emissions per-mile driven for EV's vs. gas cars
there is however benefits _IF_ you move the grid to renewables in that your EV fleet moves along with the gird
the grid is more efficient at fossil fuel consumption than individual ICE engines in each of our cars
less consumption by personal cars of fossil fuels frees up this powerful resource so that we can continue to use it where it makes sense
solar is an interesting case is that it generates soooooo much power during the day that it might be beneficial to shift EV charging (with incentives) to mid day charging to "soak" up all the excess power
commercial scale energy storage is a solution for the future to balance the peak/low problems of renewables again lessening the demand on fossil fuels

the _ONLY_ argument I ever hear about renewables is the cost - which is a major factor to consider, but people focus on it like it's a fixed thing that can never change, and ignore the direct and indirect costs of our current system - it took centuries to get the fossil fuel systems to where they are today - renewables are still in their infancy and once we turn our attention to them the costs come down - that's already proven - Solar is more efficient that it was 5 years ago, wind is more efficient - things change and as we move to renewables the costs will come down - that fact that there is an initial cost isn't a reason to avoid the path entirely

at the end of the day/week/month/year/decade/century does anyone really object to getting electricity from renewables which have provably less impact on the environment and frees up existing resources to be used in other ways.

the move to EV's allows us to modularize our transportation infrastructure to use what ever power generation we can invent/deploy…that is such a powerful concept I really don't see why people are so resistant

but yes it will take some time to get fast charging as ubiquitous as gas stations - but it happened for gas - it can happen for EV's…

evilfij

ichsan

600+ HP confirmed. Impressive!