Tesla existential threat?
05-08-2018, 02:15 PM
#121
Rennlist Member
I'm very excited for the mission-E - no matter how much I enjoy my Tesla as a gateway into the EV world - I recognize their limitations - and look forward to a properly designed/manufactured product...I'm hoping it's the beginning of serious EV's rather than Tesla's advanced and very capable prototypes.
05-08-2018, 03:17 PM
#122
Just saw that the Mission-E is expected to retail at a starting price of approx. $75000. If you can have a Porsche (and a pretty good looking one at that) for less than a Tesla (with Porsche build quality and 'name'), why would you purchase a Tesla? My daughter has the X, and i'm impressed, but there is no way I would buy a Tesla if I could have a Porsche for the same or less money. I think this will take some serious air out of the T share price (of course, they DO have rockets..!!!). Thoughts...?
05-09-2018, 10:17 PM
#124
Nordschleife Master
I was filling up at Costco in Fairfax VA on Sunday while my wife was in getting stuff at the warehouse. I struck up a conversation with the gas attendant who was more than eager to talk:
"How many fuel trucks to you get a day?"
He said "Four to Five, every day - our tanks are emptied constantly."
That was not what I expected. I was thinking one, maybe two.
He continued with "We have two Regular tanks at 30,000 gallons each and one Premium tank at 30,000 gallons.
So four to five trucks a day would mean what...around 360,000 to 450,000 gallons of fuel per day? AT ONE GAS STATION? That's amazing to me.
Stunning.
And when we move to electric cars, what is going to happen to the petroleum industry?
Taxes. Let's say on a week, that one Costco gas station does 2.8 million gallons, a conservative estimate. The Federal Gas & VA state Gas Tax is 34.6 cents per gallon or $ 96,888 a week from that Costco. That's serious revenue - the feds and the states will HAVE to replace that with taxes on alternative fuel vehicles. As E-cars ramp up, the revenue stream will decline and then there will be a collective howl from every e-car owner when they set up a tax infrastructure on them.
One more reason to go electric car early. BTW, I had a Model X for 24 hours recently - It was very impressive - I liked it.
"How many fuel trucks to you get a day?"
He said "Four to Five, every day - our tanks are emptied constantly."
That was not what I expected. I was thinking one, maybe two.
He continued with "We have two Regular tanks at 30,000 gallons each and one Premium tank at 30,000 gallons.
So four to five trucks a day would mean what...around 360,000 to 450,000 gallons of fuel per day? AT ONE GAS STATION? That's amazing to me.
Stunning.
And when we move to electric cars, what is going to happen to the petroleum industry?
Taxes. Let's say on a week, that one Costco gas station does 2.8 million gallons, a conservative estimate. The Federal Gas & VA state Gas Tax is 34.6 cents per gallon or $ 96,888 a week from that Costco. That's serious revenue - the feds and the states will HAVE to replace that with taxes on alternative fuel vehicles. As E-cars ramp up, the revenue stream will decline and then there will be a collective howl from every e-car owner when they set up a tax infrastructure on them.
One more reason to go electric car early. BTW, I had a Model X for 24 hours recently - It was very impressive - I liked it.
Gas is available everywhere. 5 minute fill-up. Priceless!
05-10-2018, 12:34 PM
#125
Re: taxes... Or, in the USA, the Republicans could get real and, instead of cutting taxes on the multi-millionaires and billionaires, keep those taxes high so that the wealthy are allowed to do their patriotic duty and give back to the country that allowed them to benefit so much financially (me included), and then NOT raise taxes on EVs, but rather see that as a tax cut for all who go that route!
05-10-2018, 12:51 PM
#126
RE: taxes... there would not be EV's without taxes. Government takes (taxes) from the productive and gives to (subsidizes) the unproductive. Tesla loses thousands per car, even after subsidies amounting to thousands per car. Not all EV makers are as incompetent as Tesla (you have to look long and hard to find a worse track record anywhere) but they are all subsidized and would never be in the EV business otherwise. This is even before accounting for the innumerable ways (unaccountable, undemocratic) regulations punish ICE and subsidize EV. This is, from soup to nuts, coercion, and I see no patriotic duty in promoting coercion. The less of it the better. As evidenced by the scores of companies announcing the thousands of new jobs resulting from the billions of off-shore profits coming back home thanks to the republican tax cuts.
05-12-2018, 08:08 PM
#127
I smell what you're cooking... picking up what you're putting down. I will say this, though: is it perhaps sometimes the government's role to encourage innovation where the private sector fails. Take GM. They didn't know the definition of "efficient" meant before their short-sightedness drove them bankrupt. And while it will be a long time yet before I buy an EV (about to buy a Panamera Turbo) I do believe the existence of a viable alternative, albeit, thanks to the subsidies, have forced a radical rethink of the ICE industry and has driven (pun intended) all car companies to offer more efficient products.
Long answer: I'm old enough to have been around when we were all having our heads stuffed with mush about NASA being worth it for all the spin-offs. And to be honest they did have an awfully long list of cool stuff developed because of the space program. Which really turns out to be just another example of how the first thing you hear is seldom right. Because years later a whole bunch of studies were done proving that every single one of those newly developed technologies came with astronomical price tags with tons of similar private sector examples accomplished for a tiny fraction of the cost. More recently we have Germany (to name just one example, it is the same everywhere) getting into serious financial problems due to all the wind power costs. Did I say wind power costs? Excuse me. SUBSIDIZED wind power costs. Which now people already ticked off at the taxes are even madder looking at utility bills 2x and 3x higher because of the stupid watermelon windmills. No one ever anywhere on the planet then or now would dream of wind power on any even remotely competitive basis. It ONLY works when government takes YOUR money and gives it to the people (like Mr Musk) who supposedly know better what to do with it.
Actually the long answer could go on and on until the interweb runs out of electrons but personally I prefer the short answer: Nope!
05-13-2018, 08:33 PM
#128
Rennlist Member
@chuck911 - I'd love the references to the studies you cite - cause it doesn't match my research - other than debunked non-peer reviewed assertions - no question you can find those statements, but so far I've been unable to validate your assertions with any credible research I have access to.
you're welcome to refute my statements with cited references.
you're welcome to refute my statements with cited references.
05-15-2018, 04:56 PM
#129
Okay. Whatever.
Got to say though this thread is entertaining. Every day (and I mean every day) another story appears. Tesla auto-pilot crashes car. Musk sleeping at factory. Tesla burns to the ground. Musk hangs up on analyst telecon. NHTSA was on that call. NHTSA investigating why Tesla's crash and burn so often. Musk says shorts will burn. Musk says won't need another round of capital. (5th time saying that? Lost count.) That's just going from memory. Today: Tesla will suspend Model 3 production, stock extends losses.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...extends-losses
Thread title: Tesla existential threat?
Answer: Yes. To itself.
Got to say though this thread is entertaining. Every day (and I mean every day) another story appears. Tesla auto-pilot crashes car. Musk sleeping at factory. Tesla burns to the ground. Musk hangs up on analyst telecon. NHTSA was on that call. NHTSA investigating why Tesla's crash and burn so often. Musk says shorts will burn. Musk says won't need another round of capital. (5th time saying that? Lost count.) That's just going from memory. Today: Tesla will suspend Model 3 production, stock extends losses.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...extends-losses
Thread title: Tesla existential threat?
Answer: Yes. To itself.
05-16-2018, 10:34 AM
#130
Rennlist Member
Space x is pretty cool tho and supposedly making money.
Im mixed on what Tesla’s ultimate fate will be but it will be something interesting.
Im mixed on what Tesla’s ultimate fate will be but it will be something interesting.
05-16-2018, 11:25 AM
#131
Short answer: Nope!
Long answer: I'm old enough to have been around when we were all having our heads stuffed with mush about NASA being worth it for all the spin-offs. And to be honest they did have an awfully long list of cool stuff developed because of the space program. Which really turns out to be just another example of how the first thing you hear is seldom right. Because years later a whole bunch of studies were done proving that every single one of those newly developed technologies came with astronomical price tags with tons of similar private sector examples accomplished for a tiny fraction of the cost. More recently we have Germany (to name just one example, it is the same everywhere) getting into serious financial problems due to all the wind power costs. Did I say wind power costs? Excuse me. SUBSIDIZED wind power costs. Which now people already ticked off at the taxes are even madder looking at utility bills 2x and 3x higher because of the stupid watermelon windmills. No one ever anywhere on the planet then or now would dream of wind power on any even remotely competitive basis. It ONLY works when government takes YOUR money and gives it to the people (like Mr Musk) who supposedly know better what to do with it.
Actually the long answer could go on and on until the interweb runs out of electrons but personally I prefer the short answer: Nope!
Long answer: I'm old enough to have been around when we were all having our heads stuffed with mush about NASA being worth it for all the spin-offs. And to be honest they did have an awfully long list of cool stuff developed because of the space program. Which really turns out to be just another example of how the first thing you hear is seldom right. Because years later a whole bunch of studies were done proving that every single one of those newly developed technologies came with astronomical price tags with tons of similar private sector examples accomplished for a tiny fraction of the cost. More recently we have Germany (to name just one example, it is the same everywhere) getting into serious financial problems due to all the wind power costs. Did I say wind power costs? Excuse me. SUBSIDIZED wind power costs. Which now people already ticked off at the taxes are even madder looking at utility bills 2x and 3x higher because of the stupid watermelon windmills. No one ever anywhere on the planet then or now would dream of wind power on any even remotely competitive basis. It ONLY works when government takes YOUR money and gives it to the people (like Mr Musk) who supposedly know better what to do with it.
Actually the long answer could go on and on until the interweb runs out of electrons but personally I prefer the short answer: Nope!
05-21-2018, 02:42 PM
#132
No argument from me, Adam Smith is Da Man! Of course there'd be vastly improved ICE even without regulations. The market would demand and reward it. Having stood on a sidewalk in Moscow ten years ago, where you could smell and sometimes even see the exhaust belching out of nearly every truck and car passing by, there's no doubt. Because I could also see that the newer vehicles were all much cleaner. So even without regulatory requirements (the supposedly state controlled Russians are WAY more free than us serfs here in America) when people are left free to choose they tend to choose cleaner, more efficient over dirtier, lower mpg. Every time. Main difference, minus the regulatory approach, there would still be some dirty vehicles being made. But that happens anyway. As regulations work to increase the cost of manufacture, people work to keep the older (less efficient, dirtier) cars running longer.
That's why, thank God for the Trump effect! Throwing out 2 regulations for every new one enacted! Scott Pruitt hacking away at the EPA! My kind of disruption!
That's why, thank God for the Trump effect! Throwing out 2 regulations for every new one enacted! Scott Pruitt hacking away at the EPA! My kind of disruption!
05-21-2018, 03:06 PM
#133
Rennlist Member
it's very doubtful those more efficient cars would be available with out the regulations - the reason is that while the Russians don't require it - the manufactures make them because they have been developed due to regulations else where. there is no reason to believe the manufactures would pursue these sorts of initiatives without incentives. The Russians have those choices because of European and US emission regulations, just like the Russians are going to have a choice of EV's soon because of Chinese regulations. Once the products are available people make choices, but regulations sometimes drives industries where they need to go.
And hacking away at clean water and air and toxic waste dumps that poison us is not the sort of EPA I want. I prefer to live healthy and you think the EPA does more harm than good you obviously don't live in Flint Michigan.
And hacking away at clean water and air and toxic waste dumps that poison us is not the sort of EPA I want. I prefer to live healthy and you think the EPA does more harm than good you obviously don't live in Flint Michigan.
05-21-2018, 03:51 PM
#134
No argument from me, Adam Smith is Da Man! Of course there'd be vastly improved ICE even without regulations. The market would demand and reward it. Having stood on a sidewalk in Moscow ten years ago, where you could smell and sometimes even see the exhaust belching out of nearly every truck and car passing by, there's no doubt. Because I could also see that the newer vehicles were all much cleaner. So even without regulatory requirements (the supposedly state controlled Russians are WAY more free than us serfs here in America) when people are left free to choose they tend to choose cleaner, more efficient over dirtier, lower mpg. Every time. Main difference, minus the regulatory approach, there would still be some dirty vehicles being made. But that happens anyway. As regulations work to increase the cost of manufacture, people work to keep the older (less efficient, dirtier) cars running longer.
That's why, thank God for the Trump effect! Throwing out 2 regulations for every new one enacted! Scott Pruitt hacking away at the EPA! My kind of disruption!
That's why, thank God for the Trump effect! Throwing out 2 regulations for every new one enacted! Scott Pruitt hacking away at the EPA! My kind of disruption!
-WT
05-21-2018, 06:48 PM
#135
Exactly. Totally correct. Everyone chooses cheap over expensive. At least at first. But then after this goes on a while, because of all the profit being made everyone's lives, standard of living improves, until eventually they start looking around and realizing hey you know the best way of making our lives even better is to fix that river that caught fire last year.
It can happen by people simply not buying the dirty crap. Fine with me. It can happen by people shaming with dirty looks the people who keep buying the dirty crap. Equally fine by me. It can even happen by the people voting for laws that ban the dirty crap, and specify exactly how clean it has to be. Surprisingly, also perfectly fine by me. Which is not what we have today, which is unelected unaccountable ideologues writing regulations by decree, a law unto themselves, which is NOT fine by me! Which is pretty much what we have now.
Again, the only reason we have any of these EV's being made is unelected unaccountable environmental ideologues writing regulations that require them. Yes it has gotten that bad. Not enough any more to just make ICE near impossible to build in compliance, not enough any more to merely take money from one and give it to another to subsidize EV's, they are now actually requiring the EV's be made. And I could have sworn one of the lessons of the last century was that planned economies do not work?
Guess not. Ideologues. Always know. Never learn.
It can happen by people simply not buying the dirty crap. Fine with me. It can happen by people shaming with dirty looks the people who keep buying the dirty crap. Equally fine by me. It can even happen by the people voting for laws that ban the dirty crap, and specify exactly how clean it has to be. Surprisingly, also perfectly fine by me. Which is not what we have today, which is unelected unaccountable ideologues writing regulations by decree, a law unto themselves, which is NOT fine by me! Which is pretty much what we have now.
Again, the only reason we have any of these EV's being made is unelected unaccountable environmental ideologues writing regulations that require them. Yes it has gotten that bad. Not enough any more to just make ICE near impossible to build in compliance, not enough any more to merely take money from one and give it to another to subsidize EV's, they are now actually requiring the EV's be made. And I could have sworn one of the lessons of the last century was that planned economies do not work?
Guess not. Ideologues. Always know. Never learn.