MikeB 81SC

OK, So I'm a chump....

Over time I've put about $25K into RIM stock, which when the market opens will be worth about half of that.

I don't need the money in the near term, but I've been burned before with holding on to a dog too long.

Most of my other stuff is in Financials.

So does RIM have any hope of returning or is it in a death spiral due to lack of fundemental competitive advantage.

Ronan

One thing I have learned is that I am not a good investor, so I leave it to professionals. ( my last personal genius investment was Nortel.

However as for RIM itself , I think they will have some serious challenges. The biggest one, medium term is that they have a fairly tight dependency on Microsoft remaining the corporate standard, as their calendar synch and email synch are really optimized there. I worry that this will decline over time. The second concern is Playbook which has had a less than stellar launch.
As for the stock, I truly have not a clue. Especially in the short term, it might be oversold. I would definitely speak with an investment professional.

TrackdayRSA.

If the company does not lower FY2011 earnings guidance of $7.50, you now have a company that is growing 20%/year trading at less than 7 times earnings. They have said they are comfortable with these estimates and the second half of the year will be much stronger, with the launch of the 7.0 phone as well as some new products. My employer (one of the bank owned brokerages) believes that the carriers will put a big push on the next-gen phone, as they are heavily reliant on Android products currently, and that the Playbook will sell at least 4.0 million units this year (mkt is looking for 2.7million). If they deliver, you are probably fine if you are prepared to take a 1-year view. Hope that helps.

MikeB 81SC

Thanks Ronan,

Great insights

The other thing I've learned is that stock brokers have very limited insight into the forward looking prospect of stocks. I've been working with Scotia McLeod. As of April 26th, their 1 year target on RIM was $99! This proves to me that mainstream stock broker firms have no true insights into the inner workings of major firms. For me this is strike #2. Scotia McLeod also were telling me to hold onto BCE right up until the failed deal. Thank God I got the heebi-jeebies two weeks before the deal died and sold out of it. My broker was trying to talk me out of it. What a dink.

I've moved back to personally managing my own investments thru buying major dividend paying large cap stocks.

RIM was the sole remaining "pure-play" and it looks like in the end, I'm the one that got played.

Braden996

I have been burned so far with RIMM as well... BUT with stocks now at roughly 48/share, might be a good time to keep buying. For some reason there is all of this negativity around RIM despite their increase in growth.

petee_c

I live in RIM territory.... 4 of my neighbors work for RIM. One held a VP level position for their OS. He left last year in September...... he's put a big addition on their house, and still has holidays this year... not looking for work til the fall....

RIM has hurt me too.... so has Nortel.... I think RIM will be around for a while... but I own an iPhone (with my own $$) , as I don't have a BB from work..

P

Targatoo

MikeB; do you have any RIM products yourself? Have you had a chance to compare them to comparable products? Do you see yourself as an 'average' consumer of these products? That might help you guess as well as anybody what will happen to the company.

I'm not qualified to give any financial advice but my wife wanted to buy RIM stock because she thought (as a non-financial person) that it was 'under valued'. Then she went and bought an iPhone. That, to me, was reason enough not to buy the stock.

Ronan

Cooncidentally, Microsoft just got it, which was what I was worried about in my initial response:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/...73R5E620110429

FFaust

Same here except managed money now + RIM (in at $72 in 2008 )

One book: Random walk down wall street. Nobody has a clue. You know when those financial analysts show you the graphs that tell how the indexes have grown over the last 100 years as a way to convince you to stay in the market? Well to me, that means... buy the index funds.

pontifex4

This. I've been lucky, but I know that that's all it is.

And I'm another vote for reading Malkiel's 'Random Walk' if you haven't. It's a very critical analysis of the houses we traditionally look to for investment guidance.

peritus

I have a day trading account that I play around with, but I leave the lion's share up to the pros... Check out the RBC Dividend Fund if you are into divs... Canadian banks are doing well and the return on that fund is good especially over the past 2 years.

Just my $0.02 (and growing) sense..

ronnie993tt

I spread most of my $$$ across a diverse portfolio of ETF's. Mutual finds are horribly inefficient due to high management costs and cash balances held to handle redemptions. All you can really do is diversify and minimize management costs, which are relatively high for anything other than ETF's and short term money market stuff. The "experts" are mostly salesmen and make their money that way. If they knew anything they'd be richer than Bill Gates and wouldn't be bothered with you and me.