While I think more and more EV's will be seen around, I think they'll only become mainsteream in the core.
It will suit the 416ers who never really leave the 416. All those outside who commute long distances may go hybrid but may not go full EV.
Battery technology is not yet there. Are distance ratings really computed in various conditions that normal people encounter ?
EV's are better suited for warm climates like Florida and California. Cold weather like our canadian winters are really hard on batteries and can reduce cap[acity by 40 percent.

 

It's not just the battery technology, charging time and and range anxiety - it's also the lithium for the batteries. The lithium mining and processing produces more pollution than the EV will ever save in its lifetime and then some, not to mention that the majority of hydro generation still comes from coal. At this time, the only sustainable technology for the long term is with hydrogen fuel cells and coal-free electricity generation (i.e. nuclear power plants). The EV push and adoption thus far has been driven by profits for the petroleum and mining companies, and politicians who absolutely love EVs because it allows them to simultaneously be favourably perceived by the general public as being environmentally responsible and friendly, while at the same time are completely supported by the global big oil and energy conglomerates who know that they make more money on every single EV made and sold than they would for an equivalent ICE vehicle.

 

^^^ Excellent point! Also, nothing is more environmentally friendly than keeping an old car on the road. The total pollution of manufacturing any new car (ICE or EV) is way more than keeping an old "polluter" on the road. If you really want to save the environment, keep your car for 20 years.

 

How does Big Oil make money off of an EV?

 

Because at this time the cost of the fossil fuels used in the material extraction, processing and manufacturing of the rechargeable batteries amounts to more than what the fuel for a modern, energy efficient ICE powered car would cost during the projected life span of said batteries. The fact that you also have to charge the EV - for which most of the electricity also comes from fossil fuels - is just gravy on top of that.

Here's a recent research article that came out of MIT on the subject: https://www.heartland.org/news-opini...mit-study-says

 

EV makes sense as a second car around town, a colleague brought a Tesla Model 3 with extended range batteries and has a similar run to his cottage - he worked out that if he charges it on the 115V he just about gets the range back to get home after his weekend at the cottage. So not so good on longer trips.
Then you have hybrid technology - gives better mileage around town due to stop/start regeneration but on a longer run the advantage disappears as they are just running on the gas engine but are burdened with the extra weight.

The other (not talked about) disadvantage with EV is fast charging degrades the batteries, so if you fast charge all the time your batteries will not give you the range that the same vehicle which is charged slowly will enjoy.
If they get really popular the hydro grid will suffer - if everyone down your street is charging an EV at the same time the hydro network won't have enough capacity. There has been early work done on predictive/collaborative charging where EV's in the same neighbourhood charge slower or 'round robin' in order to avoid this issue. Of course in Ontario we also enjoy some of the highest hydro rates in NA.....

So it's a slow ramp to 'mainstream' and even then I would suggest the family SUV is going to be king for trips to the cottage (especially if you ever want to tow a boat!)

 

Interesting article on towing with an EV form Road & Track.
https://www.roadandtrack.com/new-car...-towing-range/

Of note, if we all went EV, what would be the real effect on the economy?
What would the job losses be. The entire auto maintenance industry would essentially collapse.

 

My issue with EVs is that until we have a high density of charging stations and charging takes five minutes, it will not work for me. I love long distance driving, and of course if I were to drive to Arizona on highways I could find charging stations and add hours to my trip, but how about all those amazing back roads miles from nowhere?...all those crazy small towns and empty landscapes?. of course I can see an EV around town. I have a Smart that never leaves the city core today. Even then, in the city there is no way to charge a car that is street parked and often left standing for a couple of week in winter.

Yet, they will come. I already hear a bit of disapproval at low levels when it comes to cars, and of course the bicycle/eScooter people are ready to roll on this. Add climate change and environmental legislation and there is no doubt that in ten years we ill see a great number of EVs on the road.

 

Yeah,

as an aside, I wonder if we (collectively as Canadians/ North Americans posting on Porsche forums) are burning way too many fossil fuels.

I'm definitely in the group of using too much fossil fuel. I went on 2 family cruises last year, a week each, plus spent 30+hrs in the air going to Europe twice last summer.... A couple days on the cruise probably used as much fossil fuel as your road trip to Arizona.... I also did 5 track events at Grand Bend....

This year, we're cottaging mainly for the summer, trying to eak out 3 and 4 day weekends so that we get more weekend time per km driven to get to the cottage.... Doing more kayak fishing, pedal biking and swimming.... We already cut back a lot on our boating, and seadooing...

If we go south again, definitely will look at driving a family of 4 vs flying....

 

That MIT article makes some valid points but the cost of the fossil fuels used in the manufacture of the batteries exceeding fuel savings isn’t one of them.

it would obviously depend upon where you are buying you gas but I save more in gas per year than the car is depreciating and more than the average depreciation that gets you to a $0 cost base over a reasonable life of the car. And that’s the cost of the entire car, not just the batteries. Consider 30km a year and an average of 10km/L is 3000L of gas saved times $1.50/L is $4500 gas per year. 9 year pay back to $0 cost base for a typical eGolf before incentives and about 6years following. And that’s not only writing down the incremental costs of the cars (mainly the batteries) it’s the entire car. And then consider the lower maintenance and you’re even further ahead.

now if you’ve got cheap gas like in most parts of the US the math is different but where gas is expensive such as in CA and BC, you see a lot of electric cars because the math is more favourable there.

 

Don’t believe all the hype about electric cars being “lower maintenance”...

I had a friend that worked at the Tesla centre in Montreal and they had to replace motors in their cars, some cars had them replaced twice!

And with the cost of those batteries I would not like to be an owner that needs to replace them.

 

I’m only speaking from my personal experience to date, and things can change in a dime of course.

running costs for me for the two EVs I’ve owned for about 4 years cumulative:
the cost of electricity is about free - maybe $0.01 per km. Tires as per normal car. I haven’t had to do brakes yet (they last 100k km+). I’ve had nothing go wrong in about 60k km cumulative over two EVs

 

That's because Tesla's quality is crap.

 

I have two Teslas and no gas cars at the moment. As soon as my kids are a bit bigger I will get my 911 back again.

Agree with the points about long distances - it isnt ideal. My cars have about ~ 370km of range. In the winter, its reduced. That being said, if you are going to a cottage, the supercharger network is pretty decent and using a 110V overnight will do the trick. It is still an "early adopter" car, but man, the instant torque is very addictive.

Petee_c, im in waterloo if you want to take a test drive.

 

This study contradicts your previous statement regarding lithium mining emissions. In the study, total lifecycle emissions including manufacturing and resource extraction puts ICE at the back of the pack, all other things equal. Interesting read though.

For myself, PHEV will be next with range to get me to and from office on battery.