The Ferrari and Corvette bubbles of the 80s
11-08-2014, 09:23 PM
#1
Drifting
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The Ferrari and Corvette bubbles of the 80s
I'm not sure if this is the best subforum for the this post. Certainly Porsche related, but maybe only tangentially...
Anyway, I think it's safe to say air-cooled 911s are in a bubble. I see references to the 80s, when Ferraris bubbled and burst at the death of Enzo, and Corvettes went through a similar cycle. I was a bit too young to pay attention in those days, so I ask, how long did it take for those bubbles to pop and prices to collapse closer to pre-bubble prices?
I know, I know, there are some folks (mostly owners) who swear it'll be different with 911s, they don't make 'em anymore, etc., but to me that's wishful thinking and also part and parcel to any bubble - without the "they'll only go up up up, forever!", nobody would be buying. As someone in the market, I wonder what past precedents like Ferraris, Vettes, muscle cars, etc. can tell me about how long I might have to wait it out. Prices in some segments seem to be at least cooling. (I'm aware old prices will probably never happen again.)
Anyway, I think it's safe to say air-cooled 911s are in a bubble. I see references to the 80s, when Ferraris bubbled and burst at the death of Enzo, and Corvettes went through a similar cycle. I was a bit too young to pay attention in those days, so I ask, how long did it take for those bubbles to pop and prices to collapse closer to pre-bubble prices?
I know, I know, there are some folks (mostly owners) who swear it'll be different with 911s, they don't make 'em anymore, etc., but to me that's wishful thinking and also part and parcel to any bubble - without the "they'll only go up up up, forever!", nobody would be buying. As someone in the market, I wonder what past precedents like Ferraris, Vettes, muscle cars, etc. can tell me about how long I might have to wait it out. Prices in some segments seem to be at least cooling. (I'm aware old prices will probably never happen again.)
04-14-2015, 09:04 PM
#2
I'm not sure if this is the best subforum for the this post. Certainly Porsche related, but maybe only tangentially...
Anyway, I think it's safe to say air-cooled 911s are in a bubble. I see references to the 80s, when Ferraris bubbled and burst at the death of Enzo, and Corvettes went through a similar cycle. I was a bit too young to pay attention in those days, so I ask, how long did it take for those bubbles to pop and prices to collapse closer to pre-bubble prices?
I know, I know, there are some folks (mostly owners) who swear it'll be different with 911s, they don't make 'em anymore, etc., but to me that's wishful thinking and also part and parcel to any bubble - without the "they'll only go up up up, forever!", nobody would be buying. As someone in the market, I wonder what past precedents like Ferraris, Vettes, muscle cars, etc. can tell me about how long I might have to wait it out. Prices in some segments seem to be at least cooling. (I'm aware old prices will probably never happen again.)
Anyway, I think it's safe to say air-cooled 911s are in a bubble. I see references to the 80s, when Ferraris bubbled and burst at the death of Enzo, and Corvettes went through a similar cycle. I was a bit too young to pay attention in those days, so I ask, how long did it take for those bubbles to pop and prices to collapse closer to pre-bubble prices?
I know, I know, there are some folks (mostly owners) who swear it'll be different with 911s, they don't make 'em anymore, etc., but to me that's wishful thinking and also part and parcel to any bubble - without the "they'll only go up up up, forever!", nobody would be buying. As someone in the market, I wonder what past precedents like Ferraris, Vettes, muscle cars, etc. can tell me about how long I might have to wait it out. Prices in some segments seem to be at least cooling. (I'm aware old prices will probably never happen again.)
IMHO, the bubble is right in the meaty curve. Each bubble usually lasts 2-3 years, and as prices soar out of reach, cars get stashed away, people venture off into different vehicles. As you mentioned, Ferrari had their bubble and they have recovered and eclipsed their previous sales. Corvettes had one too, but they have not recovered completely. MOPAR had their bubble just recently and they are still coming down from their insanely stupid prices.
04-16-2015, 01:04 AM
#3
Maybe the intrinsic value of the dollar is coming unglued? People who are capable of paying cash for 911's know the currency won't maintain buying power over time and feel the car will be a better store of value that they can also enjoy. Thankfully the Fed can't print 911's...
08-02-2015, 01:38 PM
#5
Drifting
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IMHO, the bubble is right in the meaty curve. Each bubble usually lasts 2-3 years, and as prices soar out of reach, cars get stashed away, people venture off into different vehicles. As you mentioned, Ferrari had their bubble and they have recovered and eclipsed their previous sales. Corvettes had one too, but they have not recovered completely. MOPAR had their bubble just recently and they are still coming down from their insanely stupid prices.
08-08-2015, 07:34 PM
#6
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Everything is a cycle and the current market is in a bubble that will burst soon. We are seeing a little run in 80's cars prices rises, everything from Ferrari, 308 and Testarossa, to 911's from Porsche. One difference between now and the past. During the 80's bubble, people didn't have better performance cars, like we do now. Why buy a 308 for $90k when I can get a much faster F360 for less, kind of thing. People won't be willing to pay these high prices on 80's cars, when you can much better exotics for the same money. A few low production vehicles will be worth the money, but an average 911 or 308 or testarossa won't.
08-25-2015, 02:15 PM
#7
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Here's the Road Scholars Monterey report. The bubble hasn't burst.
Monterey was interesting because there was a lot of junk being offered for sale. Rust is the new patina.
The good cars stayed steady. The bad cars went down.
Mecum tried to play with the big boys and that was a huge fail. Mecum is for the hobbyist. He corraled a few high end Ferraris but there was no one bidding. He couldn't the the big boys to bid on his cars. They may have all been over at the Gooding operation.
As far as the McQueen Turbo 930 don't pay any attention to that sale. It was purchased as a charitable contribution. That means the buyer gets a pretty nice tax deduction.
Richard Newton
Monterey was interesting because there was a lot of junk being offered for sale. Rust is the new patina.
The good cars stayed steady. The bad cars went down.
Mecum tried to play with the big boys and that was a huge fail. Mecum is for the hobbyist. He corraled a few high end Ferraris but there was no one bidding. He couldn't the the big boys to bid on his cars. They may have all been over at the Gooding operation.
As far as the McQueen Turbo 930 don't pay any attention to that sale. It was purchased as a charitable contribution. That means the buyer gets a pretty nice tax deduction.
Richard Newton
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12-11-2015, 10:51 PM
#8
An old 911 can be driven while it continues to appreciate in price.
Old Corvettes deteriorate rapidly and maintenance costs will more than offset any increase in valuation. At least that was the case with 3 new Corvettes I had and drove for a total of over 200K miles.
Anyone who believes an old Ferrari is low maintenance, hasn't been driving one.
In 1985 I needed a reliable DD because mine was destroyed by a careless driver. The 1967 Corvette that I lusted for, could not be found. At 18 years of age, they were not reliable vehicles anyway, especially if you tried to drive them daily. They were going for $15-20K at the time, if you could find a decent one. So, I cried.
My perspective is biased toward owning cars I enjoy driving. I have one garage queen too many already.
Old Corvettes deteriorate rapidly and maintenance costs will more than offset any increase in valuation. At least that was the case with 3 new Corvettes I had and drove for a total of over 200K miles.
Anyone who believes an old Ferrari is low maintenance, hasn't been driving one.
In 1985 I needed a reliable DD because mine was destroyed by a careless driver. The 1967 Corvette that I lusted for, could not be found. At 18 years of age, they were not reliable vehicles anyway, especially if you tried to drive them daily. They were going for $15-20K at the time, if you could find a decent one. So, I cried.
My perspective is biased toward owning cars I enjoy driving. I have one garage queen too many already.
