Doug_B_928

I'm truly happy for those who have purchased new diesels and who are facing relatively little depreciation. I'd be interested in buying a used diesel if they were approaching typical depreciation, which they, of course, are not. As an example, a local 2013 (inservice in late summer/early fall 2012) diesel that had an MSRP of $88,000 has 32,000 kms, and the ask is $73,000. By typical depreciation standards I believe it should sell in the mid-50s, but I'm no expert. Can someone please explain why the depreciation is so low on these cars? And, knowing the current situation can't last forever, when do you think they will start to depreciate at more "normal" levels?

pdxjim

When I traded in my 13 for a 15, the sales manager said that used diesels do not spend much time on the lot !

wrinkledpants

I can't think of a single VAG/PAG diesel that had terrible depreciation. They've always held their value well compared to the gas versions.

Which makes me wonder why Audi doesn't have more diesels in their lineup. If the Allroad came in a diesel, we'd have one in the stable.

gnat

If you look at diesels of all makes they tend to hold their value better. Historically there have been two reasons for this. The first is that a diesel motor if pretty uncomplicated compared to a gas motor. 100k miles is nothing to a diesel. The other is that the supply has been low so while it may take time to find a diesel buyer, it will also take the buyer awhile to find the diesel. As long as supply is low, the seller can get more for it.

I say historically for both of those items because with the new DPF systems things are more complicated and will likely cost more when they do break. There is a growing supply of new diesel cars too which will translate to more on the used market. As the supply goes up, prices will go down for used models.

Another factor may also be that if you were buying a diesel, you understood its benefits and tended to keep it longer (like 10+ years and multiple hundreds of thousands of miles) which of course kept the resale supply low. Now, however, I think there are ever more casual owners that will be turning them over sooner and thus increase the supply.

So what I think is that diesels are still enjoying the history and in the next 5-10 years we'll see the depreciation increase due to higher supply and quicker turnover.

Doug_B_928

Interesting. Logically, it seems to make most sense to just buy a new one and enjoy the low depreciation. However, I have this feeling that if I did so they'd start to depreciate more....Murphy's law.

prosled8

Diesel motors and gas motors have almost exactly the same number of moving parts, and nearly identical basic design. To claim todays EPA compliant diesels are uncomplicated is simply not true. They have become much more complex and because of strict emissions are now no better for reliability or durability.

The advantages of the diesel are fuel economy low end torque. The pitfall is that fuel is more expensive and, if you drive it like a Porsche, the savings due to economy disappear.

Why are they holding value? Because it is a new fad, just like buying a Prius was, or riding a Harley. None of those is the best at its purpose, unless the purpose is to make a statement.

BE455

Can't say I agree with this, but we each can have our own opinions. I don't think it's a fad... the TDI VW and Q7 have been around a while now with this platform. In the EU, diesels are everywhere... small cars, SUVs, everything....
The better question is why it hasn't taken hold yet in the U.S? I hope it does so more... would love to see Porsche bring the 8 cylinder Diesel S to our market. Would be sweet.
But, to the OP... it's a great balance of improved fuel economy without a meaningful compromise in performance. And, fantastic towing ability too...

Most importantly though, to your question - my guess is it's a supply / demand issue. I bought my 2013 CD CPO'd with 11K miles, about a year old at the time, out of a loaner fleet from the local Maserati dealer. Was about $9-10K off MSRP (but of course comes with the 6 yr / 100,000 warranty). Was nicely equipped, so I jumped on it... there were plenty of CPO'd Cayennes on the lots at several Porsche dealers in the area, but not much at all in the CD platform.

If you can find one that you like - just buy it. Don't sweat this depreciation stuff too much. The longer you wait, the less time you'll have to just enjoy the thing! That's my approach at least...

Doug_B_928

Good points made by all, and thanks for the input. This raises a slightly different question: given the low depreciation, why buy a used diesel instead of a new one (BE455's case sounds unique; 6 year CPO warranty is sweet)? We don't put a lot of kms on our cars, though we will probably make some longer trips (from Winnipeg to Vancouver--probably 5-7,000 kms round trip) over the coming years. For instance, the one I spoke of in my first post in this thread will only have 1.5 years of warranty remaining (not a CPO) and has about 2 years of wear and tear. Is it better financially to buy the used one or to just buy a new one (normally I'd find this a no brainer but it's not obvious to me in this case)?

gnat

Read the rest of my post. I explicitly said that "simpler" was how things were and they are more complex now due to the DPF systems. I also explicitly said that my belief is that the low depreciation curve is based more on the history of diesels rather than what they currently are.

The more restrictive standards that have required them to become more complex are still relatively new. I haven't seen any significant impact on the reliability or durability, but I do think it's logical that we will start seeing in the next 5-10 years that diesels aren't the lived easy to maintain motors they once were.

I filled up Tuesday night. Diesel was 2.899 and premium was 3.039.

Beyond that, you can't compare cost per gallon, you have to do cost per mile. Even when the prices are reversed, the diesel comes out better.

Yes flogging a diesel will suck the fuel down faster, but the same thing happens in a gas model so you are still saving in fuel costs.

I have 2 years of fill ups tracked and comparing it against an equation that estimates what I would be getting in a base Cayenne and I capture both the diesel and premium prices when I fill up. Even when there was a period of time where premium was $0.20 cheaper than diesel in my area, I was still spending less on fuel.

If it was a fad, that would equate to new ones being hard to get new (for a short period), which they aren't and haven't been. The lack of volume on the used market more speaks to people not turning them over, which again is kinda the opposite of a fad.

I do think there are the people that believe diesels will somehow save them tons of money or that they are somehow saving the planet. Much like with the hybrid craze, these people are misguided and are falling for marketing and misdirection. They are cleaner for the environment and diesel requires less energy to produce, but they still rely on dwindling resources. The savings are also there, but they will take a long time to be realized (~90k miles before the base/diesel premium is "paid off") and the average new car buyer doesn't keep their cars that long.

As I said, my view is that the current value of the new diesels is based more on the old diesels than on facts about how these new ones will really hold up.

Due to both availability and long term reliability/maintenance I expect a market adjustment in the next 5-10 years once we see how they are really holding up.

gnat

Unless I found one with exactly the options I wanted AND it had the majority of a CPO left, I wouldn't. To me part of buying a Porsche is that they let you configure almost every little option which lets you get just the vehicle you want. So you have to be talking a significant discount from the new price before I'd consider a used one.

Does Canada not have CPO? If it does, why isn't this one CPO'd? Without a CPO I personally would walk away from that vehicle at that price. I'm sure they'll get it from someone, but it wouldn't be me.

Doug_B_928

Me neither. I stopped by the dealer and took a quick look today. It has not been well looked after. Lots of paint scratches/door dings etc. We do have CPO here so there's probably a story there too.

PJ Cayenne

I don't usually buy used, but I do look for leftover models and do my best to get a large percentage discount off MSRP. This tactic was not to be on the Porsche purchase- it became obvious it was just expensive, and if I wanted it, just buy it at the best price possible.

I think you'd be happier with a new one- unless you get lucky and find used that meets your needs.

You will love the diesel- fit, finish, handling, performance is top notch. Run the numbers and see how much more buying new will cost you, and weigh that against not getting what you want and having to worry about how the original owner drove and maintained it.

SToronto

can you elaborate on the new DPF systems in diesels? Never owned a diesel and doing some research now that includes diesel Porsche and other brands.

gnat

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dies...iculate_filter

VW, Benz, and BMW all use a urea based DPF system (others may too, I'm just familiar with the Germans) which is injected into the exhaust to capture the particulates. In non-DPF cars you'll see the tell tale black soot all over the rear end and smell the burned diesel when you are behind them, but these new DPF motors do not exhibit those issues.

I've read that it reduces the power and fuel economy, but I don't know how accurate that is.

In the Cayenne the DPF tank is in the rear under the spare tire. Dealers will refill it during your OCIs, but since I don't go to the dealer for service I did it myself when the system told me it was running low. If I remember correctly it gives you an 800 mile warning which is plenty of time to get it refilled. If you let it go dry, it will not restart after you shut the engine off. I think I was around 12,500 when I refilled it and it was reporting about 100 miles left. I refilled it with a generic brand so 5 gallons only cost about $30.

You'll see it listed as a negative by diesel detractors, but it's really a non-issue. The big question is what happens when they start breaking and how long before that starts happening.

Wisconsin Joe

I can't say what other cars use it, but almost all trucks (both large commercial & light duty stuff) use it.

The "loss of power and fuel economy" is not true. I drive a semi and my latest (2014) International gets the best economy of any truck I've driven for the past 15 years. Lots of power too.

The Diesel Exhaust Fluid (DEF) is some pretty icky stuff. Stinky, leaves behind a sticky, crystalline residue if it spills. In bulk (out of a pump) it runs a bit less than $3/gallon (in the US). In bottles, it runs 2-3 times that.

My semi gets between 200-300 miles per gallon of DEF. The systems on the big trucks are pretty robust. My company has trucks with over 500,000 miles with no DEF/particulate filter issues. The truck I drive (company owned, but assigned to me) is approaching 200k with no problems.