If you think you are only going to keep the car/suv for 2 years, why not just do a 2 yr lease???....then you don't have the risk of the mkt value dropping. You are right, though, leases are REALLY bad ideas for people who have the propensity to wake up one morning and decide they want to go buy a new car today.

My boxster lease (really balloon note loan) experience was great. They guaranteed a high resid value (~60%) on a 3 year note, so payments were fairly low. Paid $47 for the car, sold it after two years for $42, paid off the loan balance, and went on my way. No fuss, no muss, and total cost was $5k plus 2 yrs of interest.

The lease (or balloon note) is really just a simple put option, but unfortunately one where you have to wait to expiration to exercise the put. When viewed as a financial option, when the finance co's offer the high (60+%) residuals and fairly low mf (or int%), they are (IMHO) probably underpricing the value of that put. The real "cost" associated with it is being "forced" to drive the car until the end of the term, which I guess you could argue may have significant financial "cost". To me, being "forced" to drive a Boxster was not a huge "cost".