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Data Driven Analysis Tiptronic vs Manual Market Analysis
I admit it, I am an engineer geek. There has been a lot of discussion regarding the market value difference between Manuals and Tiptronics, so I wanted to put some numbers in Excel to analyze the data. The goal of my analysis was to first identify if there is a premium for a manual vs a Tiptronic and second if there is, how much is this premium. So here we go...
I went to Autotrader to get asking prices for 2007 turbos as of today. There were 23 Tiptronics and 23 Manuals for sale. I developed a regression equation for mileage vs price for both Tiptronics and Manuals. The two regression charts are below. The the red equation in the lower right corner of each chart is the market price equation (y variable is the price) for a given number of miles (x variable). Simply plug in the mileage in place of the x and you can see your estimated market value. Of course, options and after market modifications can alter pricing, so this is not exact, but rather directionally correct.
Here is the market value graph for the Tiptronics:
Here is the market value graph for the Manuals:
Based on the two charts above, it is crystal clear that Manuals carry a premium over the Tiptronics.
So using the two red regression equations, we can determine the amount of the manual premium for a given number of miles. Using the equations, I created the table below.
So there we have it...on average there is a $17k premium for a manual over a Tiptronic. Even though there is a premium for the manual, I'm still happy with my Tiptronic!
Thanks for putting this together. I too love the tiptronics. The tips seem to be a real bargain compared to the manuals, based on the data you've presented.
I know the car I purchased does not fit the "normal" standards (no mods), but I am pleased to see that I was able to acquire it below your averages listed. Unlike you, my decision was more a "seat of the pants" one, where I had been looking for about 18 months at various vehicles when this one popped up. I actually liked what I saw (aero kit and wheels), had the right mileage (a tick above 30K) and was pleasantly surprised by what was not part of the sales information (the Bilstein PSS9's). Whoever had it was dealing with some potentially frustrating issues (not mentioned in the sales information, but most of which were corrected by the seller after I took possession) but issues my hands on approach could handle, including a random no start which wound up being a missing nut on the starter trigger wire.
As with my Audis, it is forums like this and people like you that make ownership such a pleasure with information ranging from postings on values to figuring out what a specific CEL could mean.
I just bought my manual five weeks ago and shopped for several months...I did a similar analysis mostly scratched out on paper with pencil and did all the math in my head (Engineer here too, perfect 800 on my SAT math portion back in the day . Your data pretty much matches my numbers too and reflects what I saw in the market. To wit, I could have had a pristine Tip car with 12K miles and a MSRP of $160K for $74K...I wanted a manual and bought mine at 23K miles for $85K
I may be an engineer, but I did not get a 100% score on the math portion of my ACT - Wow. Congrats on your new car, love the looks. BTW - if you plug 23k miles into the manual equation above, you get a price of $91,500, so it looks like by paying only $85k, you got a great deal - another congrats.
09-27-2018, 11:20 PM
Data Driven Analysis Tiptronic vs Manual Market Analysis
. Your data pretty much matches my numbers too and reflects what I saw in the market. To wit, I could have had a pristine Tip car with 12K miles and a MSRP of $160K for $74K...I wanted a manual and bought mine at 23K miles for $85K