Economist - End of the Combustion Engine
08-26-2017, 12:21 PM
#16
Addict
Rennlist Member
Rennlist Member
Yes new jobs are created when old one go away but ALWAYS less jobs, that is how capitalism works, if as many jobs were created as were removed there would be no net savings so no point in the newer tech, as the new tech requires up front investment to realize savings on capital or labor (or both) down the road.
08-26-2017, 11:08 PM
#17
Really cool news commentary..... you may need a subscription to read it but I think the magazine allows x-number of free accesses... So here goes...
https://www.economist.com/news/leade...ed-world-death
Peace
Bruce in Philly
Final paragraphs from the piece:
The internal combustion engine has had a good run—and could still dominate shipping and aviation for decades to come. But on land electric motors will soon offer freedom and convenience more cheaply and cleanly. As the switch to electric cars reverses the trend in the rich world towards falling electricity consumption, policymakers will need to help, by ensuring that there is enough generating capacity—in spite of many countries’ broken system of regulation. They may need to be the midwives to new rules and standards for public recharging stations, and the recycling of batteries, rare-earth motors and other components in “urban mines”. And they will have to cope with the turmoil as old factory jobs disappear.
Driverless electric cars in the 21st century are likely to improve the world in profound and unexpected ways, just as vehicles powered by internal combustion engines did in the 20th. But it will be a bumpy road. Buckle up.
https://www.economist.com/news/leade...ed-world-death
Peace
Bruce in Philly
Final paragraphs from the piece:
The internal combustion engine has had a good run—and could still dominate shipping and aviation for decades to come. But on land electric motors will soon offer freedom and convenience more cheaply and cleanly. As the switch to electric cars reverses the trend in the rich world towards falling electricity consumption, policymakers will need to help, by ensuring that there is enough generating capacity—in spite of many countries’ broken system of regulation. They may need to be the midwives to new rules and standards for public recharging stations, and the recycling of batteries, rare-earth motors and other components in “urban mines”. And they will have to cope with the turmoil as old factory jobs disappear.
Driverless electric cars in the 21st century are likely to improve the world in profound and unexpected ways, just as vehicles powered by internal combustion engines did in the 20th. But it will be a bumpy road. Buckle up.
08-27-2017, 12:18 AM
#18
Rennlist Member
You guys are writing off ICE too easily. Gasoline has a higher energy density than any battery by more than an order of magnitude and is quicker to "recharge" by about the same margin. Those are very hard problems to overcome for batteries. The current insane political climate and massive subsidies for electric have more to do with the adoption than the actual market. I know a single person that has an electric car and he bought it as a political statement.
08-27-2017, 12:33 AM
#19
Burning Brakes
Originally Posted by Chris(MA)
I hear what you're saying but trump only won POTUS via around 70-77,000 strategic votes, due to the electoral college and no proportional representation.
Don't want to get into politics but imagine 2,500,000 truck drivers out of work in the same demographic and in the same strategic counties.
That's a lot of anger waiting to be tapped for power. Someone will rise up to tap it and probably not in a good way.
Don't want to get into politics but imagine 2,500,000 truck drivers out of work in the same demographic and in the same strategic counties.
That's a lot of anger waiting to be tapped for power. Someone will rise up to tap it and probably not in a good way.
08-27-2017, 12:36 AM
#20
Burning Brakes
Originally Posted by robroy72
I think this is why you're now seeing all the talk about Universal Basic Income.
Last edited by Austin997.2; 08-27-2017 at 03:49 AM.
08-27-2017, 11:44 AM
#21
Three Wheelin'
Great spenders of other people's money.....that's the CA way. Until someone realizes that the people with money will move. There is now talk in CA that if you are retired and move out of CA you will still be tagged with CA income tax...they now see there problem....but they seem to not see the will of the people (with money).
! I'd be hard for me!
08-27-2017, 01:06 PM
#23
Internal combustion engines will dominate for some time. The advantages of going to electric vehicles varies depending on the country. In Germany, they produce clean electricity ( solar, nuclear, wind). Even their fossil fuel plants are much cleaner than the plants in the US. One wold also need to have a robust power distribution network. The network in the US is barely adequate with today's demand and not so reliable with much of the local distribution above ground. This not so much the case in other highly developed countries. Also, in a country such as Germany one does not need to drive so far to get where you need to go. In addition, we don't hear much about the range of electric cars when it gets very cold outside. Battery capacity drops plus the need to heat the car and the windshield will also reduce range. Finally, there is no real breakthrough in battery technology coming soon that I am aware of that would make a meaningful difference. I believe that over the next years (5-15), households may have e.g. one electric and one ICE driven car. You don't want to wait an hour every time you want to re-fuel on vacation do you? Oh, and for now, in the US, a gasoline engine is cleaner that an electric car supplied by old tech, low tech coal plants. It is all going to take a bit longer than many believe.
One more thought..... lithium ( for batteries) is available from only a few countries and the more that is in demand, the more the price goes up.
One more thought..... lithium ( for batteries) is available from only a few countries and the more that is in demand, the more the price goes up.
08-27-2017, 02:41 PM
#25
Three Wheelin'
08-27-2017, 02:59 PM
#26
Three Wheelin'
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What will happen REALLY fast is that those smaller commuter cars will be replaced by electric ones. As many households have two cars one of them might be fully electric.
My neighbour just went that route. He even charge it for free at the office.
Honestly - to sit in slow traffic for 30-40 km as many do everyday in a manual shifter (at least in Europe) I can very much see the point of getting an electric car. Smooth ride almost no fuel cost.
My neighbor is leasing one so there is no risk when it comes to batteries etc.
To me the problem will be in 15 years when those 200 kg of batteries need to be recycled. Also - by then the "full" environmental impact of these cars will be visible and I'm pretty sure it will not look as pretty as the environmentalists say today.
I believe more in hybrids or pure battery drive with a small ICE engine range extender.
Maybe Porsche will offer electric conversion kits for our cars, ha, ha
My neighbour just went that route. He even charge it for free at the office.
Honestly - to sit in slow traffic for 30-40 km as many do everyday in a manual shifter (at least in Europe) I can very much see the point of getting an electric car. Smooth ride almost no fuel cost.
My neighbor is leasing one so there is no risk when it comes to batteries etc.
To me the problem will be in 15 years when those 200 kg of batteries need to be recycled. Also - by then the "full" environmental impact of these cars will be visible and I'm pretty sure it will not look as pretty as the environmentalists say today.
I believe more in hybrids or pure battery drive with a small ICE engine range extender.
Maybe Porsche will offer electric conversion kits for our cars, ha, ha
08-27-2017, 04:16 PM
#27
Burning Brakes
Political commentary aside, where I live Tesla's are standard issue and I see dozens every day. While 911s are common too, I see more T cars than P cars. The comment from the person in Canada that they only know one person with an EV is a stark contrast.
I and many of my of my neighbors have already installed solar PV and solar pool heating on our roofs, because it has a positive ROI, keeps the pool warmer sooner/longer and in sunny silicon valley is just the right thing to do. Many folks around me have two Teslas (S for him, X for her) and generate enough from their solar PV to power the cars and their homes for free (Hillsborough CA). I don't want to buy gas from bad regimes when I can support American innovation and power it all for free with Cali sun.
When we bought our X5 new we decided it will be the last IC car we ever buy. The IC engine is the horse and buggy, the propeller based plane, the wood fired furnace to heat a home.
I said it before and I will say it again- in 25 years driving an IC car daily (classics aside) will be like smoking on a plane, or in a restaurant in Manhattan.
I and many of my of my neighbors have already installed solar PV and solar pool heating on our roofs, because it has a positive ROI, keeps the pool warmer sooner/longer and in sunny silicon valley is just the right thing to do. Many folks around me have two Teslas (S for him, X for her) and generate enough from their solar PV to power the cars and their homes for free (Hillsborough CA). I don't want to buy gas from bad regimes when I can support American innovation and power it all for free with Cali sun.
When we bought our X5 new we decided it will be the last IC car we ever buy. The IC engine is the horse and buggy, the propeller based plane, the wood fired furnace to heat a home.
I said it before and I will say it again- in 25 years driving an IC car daily (classics aside) will be like smoking on a plane, or in a restaurant in Manhattan.
08-27-2017, 04:32 PM
#28
When this (truly, without any CA/ socialist or other artificial subsidies) becomes the case with electric cars, internal combustion will truly be on it's way out. It will happen, but the tech / cost has quite a way to go still.
08-27-2017, 05:02 PM
#29
I can't help but wonder about the results from all the EMF generated by these EV cars. Has anyone done accurate tests?
I test drove a tesla and found it so boring and detached that I bought another 911 with PDK to daily drive and keep my manual 997 for weekends.
I test drove a tesla and found it so boring and detached that I bought another 911 with PDK to daily drive and keep my manual 997 for weekends.
08-27-2017, 07:21 PM
#30
Nordschleife Master
One more thing... propeller planes are fun, still being produced, and some on very interesting high performance planes.