996: Supply and Demand Realities
07-11-2014, 02:23 PM
#1
Drifting
Thread Starter
996: Supply and Demand Realities
I just posted this to another thread and thought it might stand well by itself. I am in no way denying the negative effects of 996 problems like IMS or the perception of quality may have had on the values of these amazing cars. But I've never thought that was the entire story, or even the major cause of the relatively low valuation of the 996 series compared to other 911 models.
I suspect that many Rennlisters underestimate the impact that the basic laws of supply and demand have had on 996 values. History shows that an easier to drive and live with sports car, combined with favorable lease and loan rates, created a tremendous bubble of productivity and sales, saving Porsche from potential bankruptcy or purchase by Mercedes or any of the other car companies hovering like buzzards in the early to mid-90s.
The Facts and the Math:
Porsche produced 68,000 or so 993 models of all types between 1995 and 1998. From 1998 to 2004 Porsche produced around 175,000 996 models of all types. Yes, there are a few more years of 996 production, but sales averaged 17K/year for the 993, and 29K/year for the 996. That is nearly a 70% increase in sales.
Simply put, there are a whole lot of 996s available for sale. So, in addition to the possible (and unquantifiable) impact that repair problems and any lack of cache may have had on the 996, simple supply and demand tells us that values will be less.
I suspect that many Rennlisters underestimate the impact that the basic laws of supply and demand have had on 996 values. History shows that an easier to drive and live with sports car, combined with favorable lease and loan rates, created a tremendous bubble of productivity and sales, saving Porsche from potential bankruptcy or purchase by Mercedes or any of the other car companies hovering like buzzards in the early to mid-90s.
The Facts and the Math:
Porsche produced 68,000 or so 993 models of all types between 1995 and 1998. From 1998 to 2004 Porsche produced around 175,000 996 models of all types. Yes, there are a few more years of 996 production, but sales averaged 17K/year for the 993, and 29K/year for the 996. That is nearly a 70% increase in sales.
Simply put, there are a whole lot of 996s available for sale. So, in addition to the possible (and unquantifiable) impact that repair problems and any lack of cache may have had on the 996, simple supply and demand tells us that values will be less.
07-11-2014, 03:13 PM
#3
Addict
Rennlist Member
Rennlist Member
One other thing to consider is this. Most 993s are not driven daily so the mileage on an average sample size will be lower than on the 996 side.
If a 993 has high mileage you almost never see it offered at these crazy prices. Granted it'll still be worth more than the equivalent 996 but if you actually drive a 993 don't expect to see your car to give you a high return on investment.
If a 993 has high mileage you almost never see it offered at these crazy prices. Granted it'll still be worth more than the equivalent 996 but if you actually drive a 993 don't expect to see your car to give you a high return on investment.
07-11-2014, 03:25 PM
#4
Racer
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This is why 996 turbo model resale stinks. Porsche got too greedy and absolutely flooded the market. In terms of body structure strength, the 996 is leaps and bounds ahead of the 993. A 996 is a true everyday sportscar which is why you see the mileage you do.
07-11-2014, 03:51 PM
#5
Race Director
One other thing to consider is this. Most 993s are not driven daily so the mileage on an average sample size will be lower than on the 996 side.
If a 993 has high mileage you almost never see it offered at these crazy prices. Granted it'll still be worth more than the equivalent 996 but if you actually drive a 993 don't expect to see your car to give you a high return on investment.
If a 993 has high mileage you almost never see it offered at these crazy prices. Granted it'll still be worth more than the equivalent 996 but if you actually drive a 993 don't expect to see your car to give you a high return on investment.
Back when the cars were new, 993s were used as daily cars, just like the 996s that followed. Maybe a bit less, percentage wise, but still a useable every day car.
Desirable high mile 993s like the Turbo and S models, or even clean narrowbody cars command premiums. Try finding a C2S with $80k miles for less than $45k or even $50k. A five year newer 03 C4S can be had with the same miles for $35k or thereabouts.
07-11-2014, 03:57 PM
#6
Drifting
Thread Starter
eh, not sure I agree.
Back when the cars were new, 993s were used as daily cars, just like the 996s that followed. Maybe a bit less, percentage wise, but still a useable every day car.
Desirable high mile 993s like the Turbo and S models, or even clean narrowbody cars command premiums. Try finding a C2S with $80k miles for less than $45k or even $50k. A five year newer 03 C4S can be had with the same miles for $35k or thereabouts.
Back when the cars were new, 993s were used as daily cars, just like the 996s that followed. Maybe a bit less, percentage wise, but still a useable every day car.
Desirable high mile 993s like the Turbo and S models, or even clean narrowbody cars command premiums. Try finding a C2S with $80k miles for less than $45k or even $50k. A five year newer 03 C4S can be had with the same miles for $35k or thereabouts.
07-11-2014, 04:19 PM
#7
Race Director
Not sure I agree again. Fact is, it was the last air cooled 911 built...and the company's roots were in air cooled cars. That means something to a lot of 911 enthusiasts, whether its intrinsically valuable or not.
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07-11-2014, 05:28 PM
#8
That's a sensible frame for looking at 996 price trends.
Of course, the global market for luxury items is expanding and the number of 996s in great condition is contracting. This is how a well-fettled midyear 911 draws respectable bank even though 'everyone knows' they're awful, awful, no good very bad cars: there's always a decent market for a good 911.
The 996 is not what I'd buy to make money, but then no car is.
Of course, the global market for luxury items is expanding and the number of 996s in great condition is contracting. This is how a well-fettled midyear 911 draws respectable bank even though 'everyone knows' they're awful, awful, no good very bad cars: there's always a decent market for a good 911.
The 996 is not what I'd buy to make money, but then no car is.
07-11-2014, 05:47 PM
#9
All interesting observations - I bought the best car I could for the money I had at the time and that is/was a 2002 C4 Cab. I've done a lot of feature enhancements such as head unit , exhaust, black anodized pedals, PSS10s, wheel spacers, and then worked the "maintenance items" brakes, tires, clutch, IMS, RMS, AOS, water pump and oil sending unit. I have a car that probably isn't a wise investment - that's what stocks, bonds, CDs, property etc are for. This car is fun to drive and that's why I bought it - end of story.
07-11-2014, 05:59 PM
#10
This thread is just dumb like most of the other ones. lol. j/k
People should know the 996 isn't the car to get if you're in it for resale values/investment. I don't even know why people bring these up all the time IMO.
What's positive for me is that this car model is turning more into a cult car than a classic car status. And as such with cult status, you have more true enthusiasts that really elevate this hobby and car through better information as well as seeing diy/pioneers that come out of the woodwork here and there.
To me that's a win/win situation and a lot more exciting than classic cars that rarely get driven and where most of topics gravitate towards what kind of wax to use, best battery maintainer, what psi the tires should be for storage, best car cover, look at the poster/car model I got to put on the wall, etc...
People should know the 996 isn't the car to get if you're in it for resale values/investment. I don't even know why people bring these up all the time IMO.
What's positive for me is that this car model is turning more into a cult car than a classic car status. And as such with cult status, you have more true enthusiasts that really elevate this hobby and car through better information as well as seeing diy/pioneers that come out of the woodwork here and there.
To me that's a win/win situation and a lot more exciting than classic cars that rarely get driven and where most of topics gravitate towards what kind of wax to use, best battery maintainer, what psi the tires should be for storage, best car cover, look at the poster/car model I got to put on the wall, etc...
07-11-2014, 06:39 PM
#11
Rennlist Member
I think there's more used 996s in the market because the typical 993 (or older) owners (at least the 2 I know) think air cooled is the holy grail and would never consider a newer water cooled car no matter how nice; while a 996 owner with a 10-15 year old car now has no problem moving into a 997-991. I was told my 99 was a trade in on a 991.
07-11-2014, 07:15 PM
#12
Ironman 140.6
Rennlist Member
Rennlist Member
One must also consider that the IMS and other assorted engine failure have had a negative impact on values.
NA 997.1 values seem "ok" for now but I'm guessing those cars may also suffer value declines for similar reasons. Time will tell.
NA 997.1 values seem "ok" for now but I'm guessing those cars may also suffer value declines for similar reasons. Time will tell.
07-11-2014, 08:21 PM
#13
Addict
Rennlist Member
Rennlist Member
eh, not sure I agree.
Back when the cars were new, 993s were used as daily cars, just like the 996s that followed. Maybe a bit less, percentage wise, but still a useable every day car.
Desirable high mile 993s like the Turbo and S models, or even clean narrowbody cars command premiums. Try finding a C2S with $80k miles for less than $45k or even $50k. A five year newer 03 C4S can be had with the same miles for $35k or thereabouts.
Back when the cars were new, 993s were used as daily cars, just like the 996s that followed. Maybe a bit less, percentage wise, but still a useable every day car.
Desirable high mile 993s like the Turbo and S models, or even clean narrowbody cars command premiums. Try finding a C2S with $80k miles for less than $45k or even $50k. A five year newer 03 C4S can be had with the same miles for $35k or thereabouts.
07-11-2014, 09:21 PM
#15
I love all of this intellectual-ism.
What is interesting is some of the first water-cooled porsches have also had a growth in value... the lowly 944. Hagerty puts a base (non-turbo, non-S) condition #3 "driver" at close to $7K... not sure if this is due the lack of enough non-screwed up examples/crashed/converted to race cars.
April 2010 = $3,600... April 2014 = $ 6,700
http://www.hagerty.com/valuationtool...port?vc=883721
I think some will argue that the boxster will follow the 944s path. I think the 996 won't be far off that same trajectory unless you are fortunate enough to own a Turbo, GTx or something unique.
So yes, enjoy the snot out of your 996... and then in 10 years... sell it, if you can bear to part with it.
What is interesting is some of the first water-cooled porsches have also had a growth in value... the lowly 944. Hagerty puts a base (non-turbo, non-S) condition #3 "driver" at close to $7K... not sure if this is due the lack of enough non-screwed up examples/crashed/converted to race cars.
April 2010 = $3,600... April 2014 = $ 6,700
http://www.hagerty.com/valuationtool...port?vc=883721
I think some will argue that the boxster will follow the 944s path. I think the 996 won't be far off that same trajectory unless you are fortunate enough to own a Turbo, GTx or something unique.
So yes, enjoy the snot out of your 996... and then in 10 years... sell it, if you can bear to part with it.