BruceP

Values aren't going to rise, other than maybe to erase some of the distress selling of the last year. The most you can hope for is that they stop falling. Stable values basically reduces the cost of ownership. You just can't ever fall into the trap of seeing a car as an investment, or even an asset. The value of the car lies in the pleasurable use you get out of it. My .02, anyhow.

Orient Express

For 1999, 2002, 2004 996 C2 Coupes at Auction and suggested retail

SacTownGuy

Let's say prices have bottomed out. How much could they really rise? I am NOT a Porsche expert at all but it seems like a 5-10 year old car is not an antique or collectors item likely to appreciate much? It thus would be my completely UN-educated opinion that prices may stabalize and go down slower but I can't seem them really rising much.

Macster

Rising much is open for discussion to be sure. An improving economy can only help (if it ever improves much... way too much unemployment which is very very sad).

Nonetheless, these cars can experience an increase in value. There are alot of non-owners who have observed these cars and at some point will want one. Not a week goes by I don't get a favorable comment on my Porsches and some of these people will eventually own one.

Some owners of older Porsches when their even older model car gets well, too old, will want to stay in the Porsche fold. A nice example of a 996 might even make some forget their 993 or 964, a little.

Some people that currently own one might want another cause they are comfortable with the model, know it, know its positives and can deal with the negatives.

I know this one reason why I bought an 03 Turbo and not something else. My 2002 Boxster has been a great car and I liked the 2002 to 2003 MY. Sure, the Turbo's a different model, different engine, but the interior's very much like my Boxster's and I know and like the interior layout and this is very important to me. I spend a lot of time in a car and a good comfortable and reliable cabin control interface very important. I've experienced some pretty crappy interiors (rental cars).

There is asthetics too. Not everyone likes the newer models. I'm not too happy with the led daytime running lights of the 997 model. There is the new transmission, engine and even more electronics, which for some is a turn off. Plus depreciation of the newer cars still high.

Then there is price. These are fine cars and at some point price will attract buyers and falling supply (attrition) will cause demand to help drive prices up again.

We'll never get rich selling just one of these cars, and we'll never recoup our cost of ownership, but there will always be a market for good condition used Porsches, even 996s.

Sincerely,

Macster.

rpm's S2

Hey, the 996 value plunge got me out of my 968!

I have had 3 or 4 people contact me through friends to ask for advice on searching for a 996. Some are current Porsche owners looking to move up and others are potential first-time owners. It was this phenomenon on a much larger scale that prompts the story in my original post. It is simple supply and demand: As more and more people perceive that 996s are a great value, demand will increase. Simultaneously, there is a fairly small supply of 996s available (compared to Honda Accords for example). Simple high school economics at work.

Having said that, Orient Express's data is cautionary on this hypothesis. But it is projecting a continued drop in value based on trends from the past without any corresponding data related to demand in the future, so those projections can change.

My best guess: The plunge in value for good to excellent condition cars with lower mileage is most likely bottoming out. Will they stop depreciating entirely? Of course not. Very seldom do you see an increase in the value of a mass-produced car (The 993 price increase of the past few years was an anomoly - that usually does not happen). But the plunge is most likely over.

Sadly, Bruce Anderson's 996 value charts will come out in Excellence in a month or so... and reflect the past year's trend, rather than a possible trend over the past month or two.

Ultimately, as always, this question comes down to what is a buyer willing to pay and what is a seller willing to accept. And I suspect that what a seller is willing to accept is changing - because that seller is probably getting more interest in the car.

RallyJon

Don't assume that prices move in some kind of continuous curve. When there were plenty of eager sellers and zero buyers, the prices just reset, very quickly. When there are more people who have money to spend and want the cars, and fewer distressed sellers (or none left), what do you think happens then?

996 prices have experienced a sharp and unusual discontinuity, caused by the temporarily weird economy. What has happened in the past 18 months between freaked out sellers and opportunistic buyers means nothing going forward--either there's a supply of cheap cars or there isn't.

Best bet for buyers: try to convince a seller of a decent 996 the market is so bad they should take your lowball offer. Move fast. Good luck.

JohanM

1st post for me on the boards

I am moving to the states from europe and I already now know that I will be owning a 911 next summer. I have started to do some research on the topic in order to determine which car I want. 996 vs 997, C4s vs. C2S vs. TT?

I will have a budget of $60k max. and I will be paying cash for the car... this gives me some leverage as a buyer even though there are a limited number of cars for sale.

I think that we currently have a market where some guys have to part with their toys in hard economic times. This is what is reflected on the market value of a car like the 996.

Jim Griffin

In my opinion, with the current economy prices may vary either up or down. However, in a few years, European cars are in for a real shock with the "green" market legislating Hybrids, Electric cars and gas mileage and emission restrictions. We may see real appreciation for those who long to drive a gas powered, fast exotic sportscar. I am not saying there is anything wrong with saving energy, trees, and precious resources, only that there will be a time when these type of cars will not be available and we will all be glad that we own one. Remember Porsche is probably one of the all time retained production cars in the world. Who sees a Porsche go the the junkyard for scrap. Even the, totaled Porsches are used as "donor" cars so that current running Porsches can survive with their parts.

ttreat

I must say that unless there are severe economic issues, as any enthusiast type car depreciates, the decline in depreciation slows down considerably. I have seen this with numerous car markets. As stated before, as the price drops, the market opens up to more people. As this market opens up, the supply doesn't match the demand. This almost never causes an increase in prices but does significantly slow the decline.

I significantly doubt these cars will ever reach the $5000 level (for a running car) as some have said. There is just too much performance to drop to that level. I can name you several other car markets that have bottomed out for cars that have significantly less performance or history as a 911 and prices have very slowly declined even as cars increase in age and mileage.

I don't think I would be presumptuous to say that many people on this forum would have never been able to afford a new 996, myself included. But you love these cars and their prices dropped to a level that you could afford.

Meister Fahrer

I think 2 things are going on:
- one is a realization that a 996 at $20k is an amazing deal (I bought mine at $30k which was a great deal at the time)

- two is all the economic factors: the economy has flattened out, banks are generally lending better, there's a lot of pent-up demand for "stuff", and guys like us with multiple cars have generally decided against selling their 2nd/3rd/4th car.....

just my .02 pfennig.

SacTownGuy

I will say there are not a lot of nice 996's for sale right now in Nor Cal.

porschedog

blah blah blah
I'm still waiting for Omar to 'fess up about his avatar and hopefully post more pics.

Dale Gribble

roflmao.
google megan fox + aprilia or megan fox + transformers 2.

SacTownGuy

Curious how much difference the prices are around the country? For example, there are a ton of 911's in So Cal, less in No Cal, and even less in Portland where I was looking. I understand supply/demand can balance that out. However, also the economy is stronger in some places than others. Would be curious how much the price difference may be from one area to another?

rpm's S2

Searching the country from October through early December for an 02/03 996 I found the preponderance of cars in the following regions/states:

• Florida (got to be careful with these)
• The South (primarily in GA, NC/VA)
• The Northeast (NJ and MA mostly)
• Texas
• California (mostly LA area, but also Bay Area and Sacramento)

Very few cars in the midwest, other than a few in the Illinois/Indiana area (mostly Chicago regions).

www.searchtempest.com allowed me to search Craigslist globally - the key to any search. I found my car (in MA) initially through autotrader. But then I found it advertised locally on Craigslist for $1k cheaper!