OT: thoughts on current economy?
04-05-2010, 11:44 AM
#46
Addicted Specialist
Rennlist Member
Rennlist Member
Edward, I'm not taking sides and you seem to be taking my comments out of context. I'm merely pointing out a salient point. I'm not in support of dictatorships. I fully support democracy. However, when political agendas and party infighting reach a certain threshold, they obstruct legislative process and create a highly ineficient system. Whether you and I like it or not, the fact is that countries like China don't have that problem, providing them with a competitive edge.
"Infighting" as you call it is certainly detrimental to "moving forward," but moving forward toward what ends is the real matter to discuss. In which case again, I say the Founders got it right: our system works "to obstruct" blatant power grabs. Again, IMHO.
And btw, great discussion. I appreciate yours and all the other thoughtful comments which remain on point and eschew political saber rattling. We may not all agree on every point, but there are precious few societies which allow this very type of discussion (and China is noteably not one of them), and still part company friends, let alone without retribution for dissent. In the words of one of our esteemed RL-ers, "Is this a great place or what?" ...to which I refer to this nation.
Edward
04-05-2010, 03:47 PM
#47
Rennlist Member
Fair enough, and I hear you, even agree with you, believe me, as I "think" what your sentiment is behind your statement (if I may read in a bit) is sound and one I do embrace WRT "political agendas" become obstructions to real progress. Where I disagree is the comparison to oppressive regimes, China not being the least of them, but certainly the most successful. That, sir, is not out of context. Your juxtaposing "efficiency" with "China" is not what I could ever consider a salient point. And there's my point: at what cost, what are we willing to give up, to embrace such "efficiency." That's my point, and I am certain you can fully appreciate that.
"Infighting" as you call it is certainly detrimental to "moving forward," but moving forward toward what ends is the real matter to discuss. In which case again, I say the Founders got it right: our system works "to obstruct" blatant power grabs. Again, IMHO.
And btw, great discussion. I appreciate yours and all the other thoughtful comments which remain on point and eschew political saber rattling. We may not all agree on every point, but there are precious few societies which allow this very type of discussion (and China is noteably not one of them), and still part company friends, let alone without retribution for dissent. In the words of one of our esteemed RL-ers, "Is this a great place or what?" ...to which I refer to this nation.
Edward
"Infighting" as you call it is certainly detrimental to "moving forward," but moving forward toward what ends is the real matter to discuss. In which case again, I say the Founders got it right: our system works "to obstruct" blatant power grabs. Again, IMHO.
And btw, great discussion. I appreciate yours and all the other thoughtful comments which remain on point and eschew political saber rattling. We may not all agree on every point, but there are precious few societies which allow this very type of discussion (and China is noteably not one of them), and still part company friends, let alone without retribution for dissent. In the words of one of our esteemed RL-ers, "Is this a great place or what?" ...to which I refer to this nation.
Edward
And I agree...this is a great place. However, this OT thread is on the economy, not politics. My initial intent was simply to concur with another statement, which I now have. Back on topic...
04-05-2010, 04:07 PM
#48
Addicted Specialist
Rennlist Member
Rennlist Member
Hi Avid,
Yeah, I got your points. I think we are in agreement on many points ...which makes precious little difference if we're both wrong!
And the "serious predicament" we'll find ourselves in has much more to do with policy and action (inaction, as well) at the economic table than with any particular form of energy used. IMHO.
I was simply reading/responding to your points WRT to China ...you've clarified your position (not that you need to defend it, of course) here. So WRT to energy policy, yes, the US has serious problems to overcome, chief of which is acting more on political ideology vs what should be done to secure affordable, clean energy for the present time while simultaneously investing in plausible alternatives for when these existing technologies and resources become depleted. This is a whole 'nother discussion. But I dig
Edward
Yeah, I got your points. I think we are in agreement on many points ...which makes precious little difference if we're both wrong!
And the "serious predicament" we'll find ourselves in has much more to do with policy and action (inaction, as well) at the economic table than with any particular form of energy used. IMHO.
I was simply reading/responding to your points WRT to China ...you've clarified your position (not that you need to defend it, of course) here. So WRT to energy policy, yes, the US has serious problems to overcome, chief of which is acting more on political ideology vs what should be done to secure affordable, clean energy for the present time while simultaneously investing in plausible alternatives for when these existing technologies and resources become depleted. This is a whole 'nother discussion. But I dig
Edward
04-05-2010, 04:09 PM
#49
Race Director
Hi,
An excellent article IMHO. Enjoy.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/David-...&asset=&ccode=
"David Rosenberg of Gluskin-Sheff welcomes you back to work with seven economic datapoints requiring you to look behind the headlines.
1. U.S. consumer spending in the first quarter is higher because the savings
rate has slipped to 3.1% from 4.7% at the end of last year. Organically,
spending is actually doing quite poorly and that reflects the fact that
wage-based incomes remain under pressure. So, without that
unsustainable decline in what is already a low personal savings rate,
consumer spending in January would have actually contracted 0.4% and
0.6% in February. In other words, what we are seeing unfold right now is
a ‘low quality’ consumer recovery in the U.S., not deserving of the P/E
multiple expansion that the retailers have enjoyed in recent months. A
sector to clearly fade going forward is consumer discretionary.
2. On home prices, the seasonally adjusted data did indeed show an
increase of 0.4% MoM (using the Case-Shiller Composite-10), but the raw
data revealed a 0.2% dip — the fourth decline in a row! Now it would be
one thing if January was an unusually weak seasonal month for home
prices deserving of an upward skew from the adjustment factors; however,
from 1998 through to 2006, they rose in each and every January and by
an average of 0.6%. But what happened is that home prices collapsed in
each of the past three Januarys — by an average of 1.8%, or a 25%
annual rate. And, seasonal factors typically weigh the experience of the
prior three years disproportionately so what looks like steady gains in
housing prices may be little more than a statistical mirage.
Consumer confidence (Conference Board version) rose to 52.5 in March
and yet again this was treated gleefully on the Street and in the media
because it beat the consensus estimate. But here is the reality: in
recessions, this confidence index averages out to be 71.0, and in
expansions, it averages 102.0. What does that tell you?
4. The ISM index came out before the payroll numbers did and injected a big
round of enthusiasm into the pro-cyclical camp. The index did shoot up in
March, to 59.6 from 56.5, and while many of the components were up,
the prime reason for the increase was the eight-point surge in the
inventory component, to 55.3. Moreover, the orders-to-inventories ratio
slid to a level suggesting that we could be in for a big pullback in the next
few months. Meanwhile, very little attention has been made to the
construction spending data, which sagged 1.3% MoM in February with
broad-based declines across sectors — and January’s 0.6% drop was
revised to -1.4% (the fourth slippage in a row).
5. Stock buybacks are widely (and erroneously) viewed as being a major
fund-flow driver of the equity market, and many a pundit points to the
37% QoQ jump (+98% from the 2009 lows) in buybacks as source of
comfort. But here’s the rub: The vast majority of companies are buying
back their stock to avoid the dilutive effects of expiring stock options — of
the 214 companies that did a buyback in Q4, only 50 resulted in share
count reductions (see page B2 of the weekend WSJ). Moreover, it really
says something about the widespread excess capacity in the economy
and poor perceived rates of return on new investments that companies
would opt to deploy cash for buyback strategies at this presumed early
stage of the business expansion. If there is one trend that is indeed
constructive — certainly for our income theme — it is that companies are
beginning to pay out more of their retained earnings in the form of
dividends — $5.1 billion in net dividend increases in Q1, the most since
2007Q4 (but still down 21% from two years ago).
6. There seems to be this entrenched view now that the government can be
expected to come in and resolve all the problems in the economy. This
view is deserving in some sense because not only did the Fed and the
Treasury break the boundaries between the private and public economy
this cycle to bail out the banks, auto sector and housing companies, but
they have continued in these efforts despite a record $1.5 trillion deficit.
With no other goal, it would seem, than to allow the residential real estate
market to clear at lower prices, the government now intends to
permanently reduce the mortgage balance for all homeowners who are
“under water” and unemployed homeowner mortgage borrowers are also
going to be recipient of taxpayer assistance (but not the renter). The
problem ahead is that the bond market may no longer be in a cooperating
mood to finance all this largesse. With the 10-year yield now pressing
against the 4% threshold, we have a crucial week ahead for the Obama
team’s financing capacity as a further $82 billion of debt sales are being
put to the market for added digestion.
Another source of concern for the bulls who continue to rely on
government support for the recovery is the general population — the part
of the public that took in a mortgage it could afford and never used the
house as an ATM. Resentment is starting to build as Uncle Sam is
increasingly being viewed as Robin Hood at best, or the Artful Dodger at
worst. There were two great reads over the weekend pertaining to this
theme of emerging class warfare — Tea Party Anger Reflects Mainstream
Concerns on page A13 of the weekend WSJ and Help Paying Mortgages
7. While everyone is treating the nonfarm payroll report as gospel, let’s keep
in mind that the ADP count showed that private payrolls fell 23k,
completely at odds with the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), which claims
that this metric was up 123k. Now, we are not going to dismiss the BLS
data at all, but wouldn’t it be nicer if both surveys said the same thing?
The ADP is a pretty simple concept — and does not have any “plug”
factors to try and assume how many new businesses were created or
destroyed in any given month. Meanwhile, wages are now deflating and
the 0.1% decline in March could be the thin edge of the wedge as the
Gallup Daily tracking finds that 20.3% of the U.S. workforce was
underemployed in March — a slight uptick from January and February. "
An excellent article IMHO. Enjoy.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/David-...&asset=&ccode=
"David Rosenberg of Gluskin-Sheff welcomes you back to work with seven economic datapoints requiring you to look behind the headlines.
1. U.S. consumer spending in the first quarter is higher because the savings
rate has slipped to 3.1% from 4.7% at the end of last year. Organically,
spending is actually doing quite poorly and that reflects the fact that
wage-based incomes remain under pressure. So, without that
unsustainable decline in what is already a low personal savings rate,
consumer spending in January would have actually contracted 0.4% and
0.6% in February. In other words, what we are seeing unfold right now is
a ‘low quality’ consumer recovery in the U.S., not deserving of the P/E
multiple expansion that the retailers have enjoyed in recent months. A
sector to clearly fade going forward is consumer discretionary.
2. On home prices, the seasonally adjusted data did indeed show an
increase of 0.4% MoM (using the Case-Shiller Composite-10), but the raw
data revealed a 0.2% dip — the fourth decline in a row! Now it would be
one thing if January was an unusually weak seasonal month for home
prices deserving of an upward skew from the adjustment factors; however,
from 1998 through to 2006, they rose in each and every January and by
an average of 0.6%. But what happened is that home prices collapsed in
each of the past three Januarys — by an average of 1.8%, or a 25%
annual rate. And, seasonal factors typically weigh the experience of the
prior three years disproportionately so what looks like steady gains in
housing prices may be little more than a statistical mirage.
Consumer confidence (Conference Board version) rose to 52.5 in March
and yet again this was treated gleefully on the Street and in the media
because it beat the consensus estimate. But here is the reality: in
recessions, this confidence index averages out to be 71.0, and in
expansions, it averages 102.0. What does that tell you?
4. The ISM index came out before the payroll numbers did and injected a big
round of enthusiasm into the pro-cyclical camp. The index did shoot up in
March, to 59.6 from 56.5, and while many of the components were up,
the prime reason for the increase was the eight-point surge in the
inventory component, to 55.3. Moreover, the orders-to-inventories ratio
slid to a level suggesting that we could be in for a big pullback in the next
few months. Meanwhile, very little attention has been made to the
construction spending data, which sagged 1.3% MoM in February with
broad-based declines across sectors — and January’s 0.6% drop was
revised to -1.4% (the fourth slippage in a row).
5. Stock buybacks are widely (and erroneously) viewed as being a major
fund-flow driver of the equity market, and many a pundit points to the
37% QoQ jump (+98% from the 2009 lows) in buybacks as source of
comfort. But here’s the rub: The vast majority of companies are buying
back their stock to avoid the dilutive effects of expiring stock options — of
the 214 companies that did a buyback in Q4, only 50 resulted in share
count reductions (see page B2 of the weekend WSJ). Moreover, it really
says something about the widespread excess capacity in the economy
and poor perceived rates of return on new investments that companies
would opt to deploy cash for buyback strategies at this presumed early
stage of the business expansion. If there is one trend that is indeed
constructive — certainly for our income theme — it is that companies are
beginning to pay out more of their retained earnings in the form of
dividends — $5.1 billion in net dividend increases in Q1, the most since
2007Q4 (but still down 21% from two years ago).
6. There seems to be this entrenched view now that the government can be
expected to come in and resolve all the problems in the economy. This
view is deserving in some sense because not only did the Fed and the
Treasury break the boundaries between the private and public economy
this cycle to bail out the banks, auto sector and housing companies, but
they have continued in these efforts despite a record $1.5 trillion deficit.
With no other goal, it would seem, than to allow the residential real estate
market to clear at lower prices, the government now intends to
permanently reduce the mortgage balance for all homeowners who are
“under water” and unemployed homeowner mortgage borrowers are also
going to be recipient of taxpayer assistance (but not the renter). The
problem ahead is that the bond market may no longer be in a cooperating
mood to finance all this largesse. With the 10-year yield now pressing
against the 4% threshold, we have a crucial week ahead for the Obama
team’s financing capacity as a further $82 billion of debt sales are being
put to the market for added digestion.
Another source of concern for the bulls who continue to rely on
government support for the recovery is the general population — the part
of the public that took in a mortgage it could afford and never used the
house as an ATM. Resentment is starting to build as Uncle Sam is
increasingly being viewed as Robin Hood at best, or the Artful Dodger at
worst. There were two great reads over the weekend pertaining to this
theme of emerging class warfare — Tea Party Anger Reflects Mainstream
Concerns on page A13 of the weekend WSJ and Help Paying Mortgages
7. While everyone is treating the nonfarm payroll report as gospel, let’s keep
in mind that the ADP count showed that private payrolls fell 23k,
completely at odds with the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), which claims
that this metric was up 123k. Now, we are not going to dismiss the BLS
data at all, but wouldn’t it be nicer if both surveys said the same thing?
The ADP is a pretty simple concept — and does not have any “plug”
factors to try and assume how many new businesses were created or
destroyed in any given month. Meanwhile, wages are now deflating and
the 0.1% decline in March could be the thin edge of the wedge as the
Gallup Daily tracking finds that 20.3% of the U.S. workforce was
underemployed in March — a slight uptick from January and February. "
04-05-2010, 04:23 PM
#50
Mini Analysis
Run a small mfg that makes parts for some of the top industrial equipment producers around the world. Saw a big drop in late '08 and all through '09 with a rebound that started in November '09 and has accelerated since as inventories are replenished.
Most of the big OEM's depleted inventories the previous eighteen months in order to satisfy shareholder expectations on profitability during declining sales.
Six month firm orders are non existent right now and most of the parts and build inventories are back to near record levels. The increase has not been offset with improved year over year equipment sales.
The recovery has for the large part been without new job creation. It will be short lived IMHO.
Most of the big OEM's depleted inventories the previous eighteen months in order to satisfy shareholder expectations on profitability during declining sales.
Six month firm orders are non existent right now and most of the parts and build inventories are back to near record levels. The increase has not been offset with improved year over year equipment sales.
The recovery has for the large part been without new job creation. It will be short lived IMHO.
05-08-2010, 01:07 PM
#51
Three Wheelin'
Thread Starter
Personally I am not buying into the 'V' shaped recovery. More like a W or U at best (let's hope it's not an 'L' like many predict). All these "growth" numbers everybody is quoting are off of VERY low bases (Q1 '09). They are not sustainable growth numbers. Once the gov't turns off the zero interest rate spigot I think many of these banks and hedge funds will get hurt badly as they can no longer borrow at zero and lend out at a premium.
It was a year ago last month that the SP 500 hit 666...today it's back up over 1175. I saw clients and other people freaking big time. Now they act like we'll never go down again. Didn't they learn anything from that period? People are chasing risk based assets like the good old days of 2007 again. They WILL get burned sooner or later. I'm sure they all think they know when to hit the exits when the party ends but it never actually works that way.
Don't get me wrong, long term I am bullish but in the near/intermediate term I just am not buying into much more upside. Once the last of the"underweighted" mutual fund managers (who are usually mandated to be fully invested) gets squeezed into the market causing the perverbial spike (to SP 500 1230-50ish?) it'll be time to hit the exits.
Just one man' opinion. Am interested in others, though.
It was a year ago last month that the SP 500 hit 666...today it's back up over 1175. I saw clients and other people freaking big time. Now they act like we'll never go down again. Didn't they learn anything from that period? People are chasing risk based assets like the good old days of 2007 again. They WILL get burned sooner or later. I'm sure they all think they know when to hit the exits when the party ends but it never actually works that way.
Don't get me wrong, long term I am bullish but in the near/intermediate term I just am not buying into much more upside. Once the last of the"underweighted" mutual fund managers (who are usually mandated to be fully invested) gets squeezed into the market causing the perverbial spike (to SP 500 1230-50ish?) it'll be time to hit the exits.
Just one man' opinion. Am interested in others, though.
Well it looks like my call for the market to have it's final spike to the SP 500 1,230-50 level came to fruition (it hit 1,220 and has since plunged to under 1,100 in a matter of 2 weeks....and international and emerging stock mkts fared even worse).
Now the media is finally buying into the fact that all is not well out there. I just feel sorry for the folks that bought into all of the CNBC hypesters who preached the V-shaped recovery thesis .
05-08-2010, 01:18 PM
#52
Rennlist Member
It ain't over til it's over!
Seriously, the view on the market should be long term, right?
All is not well but the trend is upward.
As long as there are... I'm gonna guess... >50% of the population actually creating income we should be OK.
I hope.
PS- Avid, if you pop back into this thread... I love the new avatar. All of my favorite pcar colors! and in my favorite candy...
Seriously, the view on the market should be long term, right?
All is not well but the trend is upward.
As long as there are... I'm gonna guess... >50% of the population actually creating income we should be OK.
I hope.
PS- Avid, if you pop back into this thread... I love the new avatar. All of my favorite pcar colors! and in my favorite candy...
05-08-2010, 02:04 PM
#53
Three Wheelin'
Thread Starter
Seriously, the view on the market should be long term, right?
in 1997 the SP 500 was at 1,100. Today, 13 years later, it's at 1,100. That's a long time for a zero return on your capital. Buy dips, sell rips
in 1997 the SP 500 was at 1,100. Today, 13 years later, it's at 1,100. That's a long time for a zero return on your capital. Buy dips, sell rips
05-08-2010, 04:49 PM
#54
Great thread and a "must" read for most of us!
After spending two and a half months in Arizona and California this winter, I found one way to measure one's economy. One of the leading indicators is to see the amount of construction in an area. Well in that period in the US, I saw virtually no construction/building going on except for a couple churches ( I think). There were no construction trucks and no cement trucks on the roads in the Cochella Valley near Palm Springs, yet I was told there are about a million people living in the area. I ran into one local developer in a grocery store and he said there are no jobs in the valley!
I get back to Calgary (also about a million people) and the roads are cluttered with dump trucks, cement trucks etc. The contrast is staggering. I really feel for our neighbours in the US, I'm not sure of all the details, but it appears the Wall Street and the Banks were the "Flim-Flam" individuals, there was no real money involved. The tragedy at the end of the day is the middle class, where house prices (observed) dropped around 40 % in value, so the wealth of all US citizens has been gambled away by the big financial institutions... as stated before this is one hell of a deep financial hole and it may take a generation or more to be able to dig out of it.
We are blessed with an oil and gas industry that has kept us out of some of the red ink, yet our provincial government still runs a deficit!
A lot of Canadians spend a lot of time in the US, as snowbirds. And spend our Can $ (almost at par) and surely help the local economy in some of the southern states, it may just be a trickle ...
May God bless us all,
Bert
After spending two and a half months in Arizona and California this winter, I found one way to measure one's economy. One of the leading indicators is to see the amount of construction in an area. Well in that period in the US, I saw virtually no construction/building going on except for a couple churches ( I think). There were no construction trucks and no cement trucks on the roads in the Cochella Valley near Palm Springs, yet I was told there are about a million people living in the area. I ran into one local developer in a grocery store and he said there are no jobs in the valley!
I get back to Calgary (also about a million people) and the roads are cluttered with dump trucks, cement trucks etc. The contrast is staggering. I really feel for our neighbours in the US, I'm not sure of all the details, but it appears the Wall Street and the Banks were the "Flim-Flam" individuals, there was no real money involved. The tragedy at the end of the day is the middle class, where house prices (observed) dropped around 40 % in value, so the wealth of all US citizens has been gambled away by the big financial institutions... as stated before this is one hell of a deep financial hole and it may take a generation or more to be able to dig out of it.
We are blessed with an oil and gas industry that has kept us out of some of the red ink, yet our provincial government still runs a deficit!
A lot of Canadians spend a lot of time in the US, as snowbirds. And spend our Can $ (almost at par) and surely help the local economy in some of the southern states, it may just be a trickle ...
May God bless us all,
Bert
05-08-2010, 11:34 PM
#55
Addict
Rennlist Member
Rennlist Member
sorry i'm late to the thread, but i'll add my 2c....the original question about the the outlook for the economy is modest at best, and so much depends on government policies towards private capital and business. up to now, most earnings gains have come from cost costing, not necessarily from increasing sales of stuff, which would drive increases in employment. much of the employment gains have come from increasing public rolls, not private rolls. the US economy is extremely resilient, and can adapt if the environment allows, but with the current administration's belief that central planing is superior to private endeavors, it will be challenging for companies to plan growth strategies versus defensive actions. an earlier point spoke to mutual fund managers chasing returns and moving the equity markets higher, but keep in mind the funds they use are generally coming from individuals, either through personal savings, or pension plans (such as 401k's, endowments, or the like). i've been an equity trader for 30 years and it's been particularly difficult to figure out which way to go. when the dow/s&p was trading around 11200/1150, it was hard to justify putting new money to work in equity. with the declines of the last few days, it's worthwhile considering putting a small portion of the cash i have to work in large cap US equities as the investing world looks for safe havens. all in all i'm cautious until i feel the government is more favorable to business versus social justice.
marc
marc
05-09-2010, 02:45 PM
#56
Rennlist Member
I watched CNBC in the background for five years every day during market hours. What a circus. If you want to play the markets, watch and do exactly the opposite of the "theme" they're promoting that day and you'll do well. Does anyone remember how heavy they were pitching BUY, BUY, BUY! a few days before last week's correction?
On a more general note, so much has changed since this thread was started. The GS investigation, the oil spill, the Greece situation and the little DOW "glitch" last week. There is always crisis before the fever breaks. The feds needed to send a message to Wall Street and they couldn't have picked a better bone than GS. I bet there's a few guys on Wall Street who are changing their MO. So many people drank the "drill, drill, drill" koolaid and now some are waking up to severe consequences and realizing that the other half may have a point in focusing on renewable energy where China and Germany have now taken the lead from America. Through the Greek crisis, the world is witnessing a good example of what happens when people don't pay their share of taxes. So many great countries are being held behind by this cultural MO. Let's face it, no one likes paying taxes but running a country ain't free. And on the market side, I had a good chuckle when CNBC suggested that someone pressed the wrong button. You can't have an inflated market at 14k that corrects to 6k and is back at nearly 12k within 12 months without some sort of fundamentals driving that correction. I just think it's funny how it played out. I think all these changes will have very positive consequences over the long term.
05-09-2010, 10:06 PM
#57
Rennlist Member
Running a country into the ground ain't free...Interest on the debt, waste, graft, corruption, "pork" projects at all levels of gov't costs plenty and will continue to cost us, our children, grandchildren..ad nauseum. Yes, change is coming....and it's not pretty.
05-10-2010, 12:10 AM
#58
Edward, I'm not taking sides and you seem to be taking my comments out of context. I'm merely pointing out a salient point. I'm not in support of dictatorships. I fully support democracy. However, when political agendas and party infighting reach a certain threshold, they obstruct legislative process and create a highly ineficient system. Whether you and I like it or not, the fact is that countries like China don't have that problem, providing them with a competitive edge.
If you think the American political process is inefficient and partisan today, just read some history. Many eras were marked by worse behavior (especially the founding era, when leading political figures, for example, were routinely burned in effigy). People fighting for their political interests is part of the democratic process, which actually would not be possible without allowing people the freedom to bicker, fight, persuade, and organize themselves into interest groups. Our system of government is not supposed to be efficient or easy. The strife and controversy people say they don't like is actually the greatest safeguard of our freedom, because they ensure any changes that are made have the broadest possible support from the people. The absence of such a system is precisely why there were 40 million people murdered in China in the 1950's, while zero people get murdered in similar fashion in democracies.
05-10-2010, 01:38 PM
#59
Rennlist Member
Indeed, autocratic governments can often "just get things done." Mao, for example, had 40 million people murdered during the Great Leap Forward. Very efficient.
If you think the American political process is inefficient and partisan today, just read some history. Many eras were marked by worse behavior (especially the founding era, when leading political figures, for example, were routinely burned in effigy). People fighting for their political interests is part of the democratic process, which actually would not be possible without allowing people the freedom to bicker, fight, persuade, and organize themselves into interest groups. Our system of government is not supposed to be efficient or easy. The strife and controversy people say they don't like is actually the greatest safeguard of our freedom, because they ensure any changes that are made have the broadest possible support from the people. The absence of such a system is precisely why there were 40 million people murdered in China in the 1950's, while zero people get murdered in similar fashion in democracies.
If you think the American political process is inefficient and partisan today, just read some history. Many eras were marked by worse behavior (especially the founding era, when leading political figures, for example, were routinely burned in effigy). People fighting for their political interests is part of the democratic process, which actually would not be possible without allowing people the freedom to bicker, fight, persuade, and organize themselves into interest groups. Our system of government is not supposed to be efficient or easy. The strife and controversy people say they don't like is actually the greatest safeguard of our freedom, because they ensure any changes that are made have the broadest possible support from the people. The absence of such a system is precisely why there were 40 million people murdered in China in the 1950's, while zero people get murdered in similar fashion in democracies.
Last edited by Wilder; 05-10-2010 at 01:54 PM.
05-10-2010, 01:54 PM
#60
Right. But if you want higher taxes and I want lower taxes, my success entails your failure, and vice versa. So of course people want their political opponents to lose. I want mine to lose, absolutely.