The End of Manual Transmissions??
#1
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Last edited by Twilightblue28A; 09-13-2020 at 12:57 AM.
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M. Schneider (11-04-2021)
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M. Schneider (11-04-2021)
#3
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I think we have the Gordon Murray T.50, Evora, porsche 911/boxster/cayman, Golf, Jetta, challenger, camaro, mustang, tacoma, wrangler, compass, gladiator, frontier, versa, 370Z, Z4, fit, civic, accord, Yaris, corolla, 86, WRX, Impreza, crosstrek, Genesis/Kia/Hyundai have some, 2 series and 4 series BMW, Miata/fiata, Mazda 3, that little chevy thing (spark?).
So we are really down to Jeep Wrangler/gladiator, Tacoma, porsche sports cars, smaller BMWs, muscle cars, Miata (I think the 86/BRZ and 370Z are soon dead), and basically economy cars. Emissions and CAFE are killing them off which is decreasing demand. A lot of new vehicles with a manual have rev hang for emissions which makes them annoying to drive.
Porsche, Jeep, Miata, and maybe Golf/BMW/WRX have the manual demand to be self-sustaining. I would have thought the same was true for the muscle cars (camaro, challenger, mustang), but those all seem to be heading to automatic (I tried to find a manual Hellcat widebody and it is basically impossible). I think demand/emissions will kill off the VW, BMW, WRX sooner rather than later. Same with tacoma (they already killed the 4 banger manual — I have one).
I wonder what the last widely produced manual will be? Jeep’s current 6 speed has a lot of followers, but it’s not a great transmission and it has issues. On the other hand, production numbers are so high as long as they can run the 3.6 V6 gas I think they will keep the manual for the faithful. The miata’s manual is supposed to be very good, but Miata is slowly dying and the auto is good I hear. My money would be on porsche because of the GT3 experience (991.1 was all PDK, they brought out the R, and then sold ~60% manual in 991.2 GT3, all speedsters, then again the GT4/spyder people seem keen on the new PDK and porsche is super emissions conscious and making a manual pass emissions is getting harder and harder). Nonetheless, my guess is the last manual in the US will be some special edition 911.
So we are really down to Jeep Wrangler/gladiator, Tacoma, porsche sports cars, smaller BMWs, muscle cars, Miata (I think the 86/BRZ and 370Z are soon dead), and basically economy cars. Emissions and CAFE are killing them off which is decreasing demand. A lot of new vehicles with a manual have rev hang for emissions which makes them annoying to drive.
Porsche, Jeep, Miata, and maybe Golf/BMW/WRX have the manual demand to be self-sustaining. I would have thought the same was true for the muscle cars (camaro, challenger, mustang), but those all seem to be heading to automatic (I tried to find a manual Hellcat widebody and it is basically impossible). I think demand/emissions will kill off the VW, BMW, WRX sooner rather than later. Same with tacoma (they already killed the 4 banger manual — I have one).
I wonder what the last widely produced manual will be? Jeep’s current 6 speed has a lot of followers, but it’s not a great transmission and it has issues. On the other hand, production numbers are so high as long as they can run the 3.6 V6 gas I think they will keep the manual for the faithful. The miata’s manual is supposed to be very good, but Miata is slowly dying and the auto is good I hear. My money would be on porsche because of the GT3 experience (991.1 was all PDK, they brought out the R, and then sold ~60% manual in 991.2 GT3, all speedsters, then again the GT4/spyder people seem keen on the new PDK and porsche is super emissions conscious and making a manual pass emissions is getting harder and harder). Nonetheless, my guess is the last manual in the US will be some special edition 911.
#4
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As long as ICE exists, so will manual transmissions.
ICE is not long for this world, so it may be another 20 years tops.
ICE is not long for this world, so it may be another 20 years tops.
#5
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The 370Z replacement will have a manual.
https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a3...-teaser-video/
And I bet the BRZ replacement will, too.
The new Bronco has a manual available, but I think only on the 4 cylinder.
https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a3...-teaser-video/
And I bet the BRZ replacement will, too.
The new Bronco has a manual available, but I think only on the 4 cylinder.
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evilfij (09-13-2020)
#6
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When all the guys who are over 35 years old are dead and gone so will the shift stick. Has anyone here adjusted a Magnito? The idea of a manual choke has already left the automotive lexicon. Many of my son's generation see a car as an appliance much like a refrigerator. If their car works with their smartphone that's a preferred feature. I try to break this trend by letting any young driver I know test drive my 993, they immediately get it once they get to 2nd gear. Just doing my part to slow the Progressive trend of living one's life vicariously in a phone.
Andy
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#8
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Love the stick ...setting points and replacing condenser, not so much ![Big Grin](https://rennlist.com/forums/images/smilies/biggrin.gif)
Andy has it right: most of today's kids see driving as mere transport, so any appliance will suffice, especially uber/lyft. My son (youngest of 4) is the only expressing interest in the art of the manual ...yay. But we all know the manual trans is going the way of the dino. And how many of my own grown kids' friends can tell time on a analog watch? This is today's reality, regardless of how anyone feels about it. I've got a 993 and an SC ...I'm feeling pretty good about it![Wink](https://rennlist.com/forums/images/smilies/wink.gif)
Edward
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Andy has it right: most of today's kids see driving as mere transport, so any appliance will suffice, especially uber/lyft. My son (youngest of 4) is the only expressing interest in the art of the manual ...yay. But we all know the manual trans is going the way of the dino. And how many of my own grown kids' friends can tell time on a analog watch? This is today's reality, regardless of how anyone feels about it. I've got a 993 and an SC ...I'm feeling pretty good about it
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Edward
Last edited by Edward; 09-14-2020 at 07:07 PM.
#9
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No definitely not with the way Porsche handles PDK repairs:
https://rennlist.com/forums/997-foru...nsmission.html
https://rennlist.com/forums/997-foru...nsmission.html
#10
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I forced my 16 year old daughter to learn to drive a manual. She complained, fought it, cried in frustration. I didn't relent and now she LOVES driving a manual transmission car. For a time, 3 out of 4 of our cars were manuals.
Sadly, VW bought back my turbo manual wagon. Loved that car but simply too many problems. Probably one of the last manual wagons you'll ever be able to buy. I'd love to get a new A4 Avant with a manual.... but not in the US.
Sadly, VW bought back my turbo manual wagon. Loved that car but simply too many problems. Probably one of the last manual wagons you'll ever be able to buy. I'd love to get a new A4 Avant with a manual.... but not in the US.
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#12
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There are many things that bother me about new cars other than the lack of manual transmissions.
Will happily keep and enjoy my old stuff
Will happily keep and enjoy my old stuff
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#13
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I submit there will always be manual transmissions around, albeit not a buffet of choices.
Even today BMW, Mazda, Toyota, Volkswagen, Honda...; in addition to Porsche, are still making superb 6 speeds.
And we can already sense the 15-30% premium manual 992s and 718s will command over the PDKs in, no, not 10yrs from now, but TODAY!!
On a macro scale, the 10% of us manual lovers will happily gulp down the 5% of manual production cars at a premium.
Even today BMW, Mazda, Toyota, Volkswagen, Honda...; in addition to Porsche, are still making superb 6 speeds.
And we can already sense the 15-30% premium manual 992s and 718s will command over the PDKs in, no, not 10yrs from now, but TODAY!!
On a macro scale, the 10% of us manual lovers will happily gulp down the 5% of manual production cars at a premium.
#14
Burning Brakes
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To me, Manual transmission is for driving pleasure.
The semiautomatic trasmission is for lap times or for those who are not capable of driving a manual or if you want to be sure not to fail a single start from a stop
Then there are automatic transmissions, which are basically for BUS, for traffic driving or eventually for those many 👀 who are willing to make a monster with 1000hp of their 997 turbo for drag races.
the very big minus of semiautomatic and automatic transmissions is the reverse gear engagement, which is a true frustrating limit if one comes from driving a manual in a smart/agile way, since in manual cars the good skilled driver during a manouver in a parking place can disengage the clutch while the car is still moving backwards to engage the 1st gear, or viceversa, then press the brake pedal and release the clutch, or eventually not even pressing the brake.
there is no lack of time, the car simply without interruption in the continuity passes from moving in one direction to the other, in a very fluid, elegant and very satisfying way.
learning how to manage such situations, especially when it becomes normal, gives a lot of tactile pleasure to the driver, without even realising it, many times in a singlre day.
For daily i am driving an automatic trasmission, where the real and only plus is I can drive it in the traffic with just one hand and meanwhile drink from the bottle or make a telephone call from the car connect system.
It never happened to me, while driving a manual, to fail a start while entering a road from a stop with cars arriving, I think noone 100% capable of driving will ever doubt something like a stall could happen because of a mistake.
and this is the biggest feedback on how much the feet are a single thing with pedals, it is like playing an instrument, of course those who drive automatic (me included) have lost and are missing that pleasure totally.
the loss I'd rather say is way higher on a daily driver than on a week end car, so maybe I should do the opposite, and go back to a manual for making the working days a bit sweeter.
Last edited by nothingbutgt3; 11-05-2021 at 04:59 AM.