993Mpls

When I read the first post, I thought I had clicked into Off-Topic by accident.

993c4_Toronto

Everything fails - but what happens at your office when the internet goes down. Everybody stops working instantly.

Once we have self driving cars there will be no purpose for our kids to learn to drive. If the system goes down, they'll sit and wait for it to be restored.

jago

out of my cold. dead. hands...

chsu74

The car will know its failing in 30 seconds so will come to a smooth and slow stop. Seriously? Tell that to the crew of the challenger space shuttle.

Fünfer

Our cars will be looked at 'as strange' because they are not self driving, and because they are not electric. The EU is working on legislation to only allow new, electric cars to be produced and sold, starting at a certain point in time. Maybe 2025 or 2030.
Volvo has announced that they will only produce electric cars even before that date.
You will still be able to drive your 993 or other gasoline engine cars, but they will become an oddity.

gw911nine97

LOL 'air bags'... you mean the faulty air bags that can kill you? and after all that exploded in the news, they repackage the same types of airbag to replace the faulty ones and consider that a safety measure!

pp000830

The issue is not that it worked but can you sell it! like the TSA at the airport, do they make us safe, nope are they intended to make us feel safe yes.
The funny thing about selling safety is you need to buy into the concept that one can be made safe and that it is desirable, even if the costs in $ and freedom are high.

Tlaloc75

On the tsa, I agree with you.

Cars are safer than they were 50 years ago period. A wreck at highway speeds is no longer a death sentence. Seat belts, airbags, stability control and improved vehicle structure have all made a huge difference.

None of these things takes a bit of freedom from me. On the contrary, if I get in an accident, they may just give me the freedom to live to see another day!

Not sure what we are even discussing here anymore. Tilting at windmills perhaps?

sampelligrino

Well written! All I know is I'm trying to enjoy driving my Porsche as much as possible in the here and now Especially when I see loads of Teslas to my right and left driving around town. Who knows what the future holds, for me personally I try not to worry too much as a lot can change and happen..

Mr.Woolery

I agree. I don't think that the gubment will take away our license to drive. Rather, I'd think it'll be the insurance companies will make it too expensive over time for the average person to afford. Driving your own car will likely be a sign of wealth/freedom/individuality.

HalfGerman

I cannot wait for self driving cars, there will be a time at first when mixed traffic with self-driving and driven vehicles are on the road together. The autonomous cars will have self preservation and you can cut them off at will and they will always yield to you. (kidding of course)

In the future I think people will be like the ones in the movie I, Robot where the the Dr gets on Will Smith's motorcycle and she says "Please tell me this doesn't run on gas! Gas explodes, you know? "

You can amaze your grandchildren by telling them you had to put gas in the car, drive manually and even shift gears.

pp000830

A pragmatic approach would be to allow autonomous drive cars on specific stretches of highway certified for an autonomous drive where the number of driving decision variables are smaller and have been reduced even further by updated road design. Other highways could be improved over time so they can also be certified for autonomous drive cars. Think about it, when you turn on cruise control you are not doing it because you revel in the highway experience. Implementing autonomous vehicles on local and secondary roads may be of limited value where lions share of the convenience and safety enhancement is likely on highways. Highways are likely the most successful and simplest and lowest cost roadways to automate.

993c4_Toronto

Britain to ban all gasoline cars

NC TRACKRAT

By the time the transition to self-driving vehicles occurs, I'll be in the hereafter, hopefully driving a 1974 Carrera RS to my heart's content. I leave it to you young whippersnappers to deal with technological "advances". (OTOH, if I go to Hell, I'll drive a Prius through a mud-storm, then have to wash and detail it, only to drive back out into the mud-storm again, ad nauseum.)

samurai_k

I live in Silicon Valley and have worked in tech for the past 20 years here. While it is a microcosm and bubble here (the TV show is a great parody of daily life for many of us who work in tech), the future of self-driving cars will come sooner than we all think.

However, we are likely to go through an evolution of "assisted driving", as people and our government will need to get comfortable with the safety of the technology before widespread acceptance of an "autopilot."

I see four drivers (no pun intended) that is facilitating the advancement of this technology...

1. You need great data about our roads. Google was the pioneer with G Maps with their cars driving around our roads capturing stills for street view, but Uber and other ridesharing services are taking it to another level. Guess what each Uber we take generates? A ton of fresh data about our roads and driving patterns on those roads. Great data about our roads and the usage patterns are necessary, as the "AI" (artificial intelligence) for the self-driving technology needs some basic constraints to base its decisions around.

2. You need powerful technology to power the self-driving cars. Guess what each Telsa has? A ton of cameras around it and a computer to capture and process all of the situational information we as humans absorb in real-time as we drive. Also the self-driving cars of today are connected and getting external data I talked about earlier to augment it's "AI". The app Waze is a great example of external real-time data being pushed to your phone and telling us our optimal route, as well as other useful data such as where the cops are which has saved me many times over than my V1. You also need great "AI" to take all of that data and make sense of it in real-time like a human to assist with the driving experience. There is a ton of investment going into this area like Google Waymo (Google's driverless technology project) and Uber's competing project.

3. You need scalable manufacturing to scale point 1 and 2 to the masses. Parts of the self-driving technology is already in our cars with the adaptive cruise control in its simplest form, to the "autopilot" that Tesla is pioneering in all of its cars. It is a question of time the big guys will refine and perfect what is started already and provide the capabilities to the customers (cost effectively) as ultimately it is big money making cars people want and being competitive with each other in terms of features/functions.

Like any new technology it will need to be perfected and scaled, but lastly we have a business driver and demographic driver...

4. You need a large market who see value in the technology and adopt it. Besides fuel, what is a major cost for logistics companies? Drivers and insurance. The ability to improve safety as well as eventually augment and/or turn drivers into operators in this application would be a game changer in that industry and would drive adoption for business reasons (as long as it works and is cost effective).

On consumer side, millennials (my younger cousins and nieces/nephews) are the largest cohort with purchasing power since the baby boomers. As a generalization, they are comfortable with adopting new technology and optimize for convenience. I believe they will be the ones who will be willing to try and want the assisted driving/self-driving technology first either in their own cars, or be okay with Uber and other ride sharing services drive them around with the technology. (BTW, Uber's long term strategy is to move to driverless technology, as it is the only way to scale in reach where there are not enough "drivers"). The rest of us skeptics will follow.

So where does all of this leave us who love our "vintage" cars? I am sure we will have assisted driving/self-driving technology in our cars eventually, along with our "vintage" cars. I am also sure we will continue to love our "vintage" cars, buy them, and drive them because these are the experiences that ground us as a cohort, and there will be a segment of the population will continue being car fans like us on Rennlist long after we are dead. I will at least try to teach my young kids the simple pleasures of driving a manual car as they grow up and if they pick it up as a hobby like us car guys then mission accomplished! However, like I said before, there will be an evolution of the mainstream adoption of assisted driving first to eventually self-driving technology. It is a question of when and how fast we go through this evolution.

BTW, if you haven't done so, test drive one of the newer Teslas with the "advanced" autopilot. If you have a mundane traffic heavy commute, it is a game changer. I still like my noisy manual cars so will rather spend my money on a 993 and have fun when not in traffic.