Does anyone have any thoughts on what the current scarcity of cars will do to second hand prices in 4 years time. The 997 has held its value relatively well in part due to the fact that there were so few of them due to the financial crash in 2008/2009.

Although this scarcity will resolve there will be a lot less cars circulating of the 992 variety in 3-4 years. Wonder what impact that will have on resale values

 

It’s an interesting take. Numbers have been lower on the MY20 cars - even lower for MY21.

https://rennlist.com/forums/992/1193...n-numbers.html

Seeing the allocations are dried up across the country. It makes you wonder what total production numbers will be by the time the 992.2 releases.

I actually have a friend who spent several months searching for an allocation. It’s a perfect case of wanting something you ‘can’t have’ - or it’s ‘hard to get’. It’s now a primary reason for him wanting a 992 having experienced the push back on being able to allocate one. It’s almost like trying to get a GT3 allocation. Which is a dumb reason to want one 😂

I think another major factor is the possibility the 992 is the end of an era for Porsche.

https://rennlist.com/forums/992/1205...nd-of-era.html

IMO - I think the next generation will be hybrid across the entire range. I don’t see the alternative fuels being adopted in time.

There’s definitely a case to be made that a perfect storm with electrification coming & COVID effecting supply - makes the 992 a long term keeper.

That said - no one should buy a 992 because of scarcity.

 

Don't care.

I could be dead in 4 years. Maybe even 3.

I will worry about tomorrow when tomorrow comes.

 

^ I agree ... live for today !

That said, my crystal ball says that in 4 years, my car (coming in June) will be worth close to 50% of its build price.

 

Regardless of current scarcity, mass-produced cars always depreciate.

Maybe there will be a reduction in the depreciation rate since the used market for this model year will reflect that scarcity somewhat in 3-4 years, but I wouldn't make any bets on it being a substantial difference.

Imagine it's the year 2025 and you are in the market for a ~2021 911, would you pay a lot more because there weren't as many of them made that year? Probably not. There will be 2019, 2020, and 2022 models showing up on cars.com, too, diminishing the impact of any ~2021 scarcity in aggregate.

 

seriously...jeez

 

Porsche should increase the price of 992s, if supply and inventory is limited and the demand remains high.

 

Depends on the market/economy in four years. I can't see beyond 2021 at the moment and I thought last year was crazy.

 

People would lose their minds saying that Porsche is gouging customer, etc, etc. Watching it live right now in the bike industry. And then buyers at the higher price would lose their minds if Porsche lowered prices once demand equalizes with supply. It is s no win situation for them.

 

What's going to happen to the used market for gas-powered vehicles in general once all of the developed nations move to their electric-only car sales in the next decade or so!?

 

It's impossible to predict what impact the relative scarcity of 2020/21/22 992 will have on prices down the road. Whatever the impact, it will be better than if Porsche had cranked out 2x the number of 992s. Personally, I'm not fussed about the coming wave of electrics or whether the end of ICE is nigh...I'm enjoying the heck outa the 992 and plan to drive it as much and as far as possible to make my cost-per-mile as low as possible. If ICE vehicles are effectively worthless in 2028, I'd MUCH rather be holding a high-mileage 992 than a garage queen.

 

Gas is going to be around for a long time (at least in the USA).

Just my two cents, but since I wrote a bunch about this issue in a former life...

According to NHTSA and IIHS data, the average car on US roads is 11.9 years old (basically none of these are EVs). This number used to be only 11.3 years just a few years ago, but cars are super reliable, MSRP has climbed (average new vehicle transaction price according to KBB is $40K), and no one drove anywhere in 2020 due to the pandemic, adding more life to their vehicles.

Since the US power grid isn't ready to support a Level 3 800-volt DC fast charging network anytime soon (what we'd really need to completely give ICE's the boot), and the US Government hasn't committed to ending ICE new vehicle sales until at least 2035 (don't be surprised if vehicles classified as "trucks" don't have to abide by this), it's going to be quite a while until EVs begin to put a significant increase in price at the gas pump, and even longer until those pumps disappear.

Hopefully, I'll live another 50 years. If so, I think that is when I won't have a place to fill up my antique 992 with 93 octane, but bio-synthetic fuels will take the place for a price.

 

If any of you can answer this question by distilling the many incalculable determinants from hybrid/electric to economics to fuel cost and availability to evolving preference, please manage my investments for me. I'll go double the normal fee.

 

None. We will have moved on to the next version....they'll be no different than used 911s of the past.

 

It's going to be very strong. Many people will remain in the used car market forever once government bans ICE cars.