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"The Price Is Right": 991 prices new/used "is this a good price?" Lease info too!
Maybe the most asked question(s) on this forum; "is this a good price?" or "what should I pay?" The way I see it, valuing a 991 (or any modern day used car) shouldn't be any more involved than using similar metrics to those employed by Porsche Financial in setting lease residuals for different points in time (i.e., 12mo., 24mo., 36mo., 48mo., 60mo.). If the car's VIN#, starting price (MSRP) and current mileage are known then one should be able to get close to determining what the car is worth. Of course, there will always be variables that might affect demand (i.e., CPO, paint color, wheels, exhaust, etc.) but for the most part using the same residual value/mileage combo that PFS uses should get one close to determining what the fair price for a used 991 is.
So, what is needed?
-the car's MSRP (use the Porsche build sheet decoder below)
-the car's mileage
At this point the year, msrp, asking price, mileage (and options) should be known.
Quick aside: remember that an "asking/offered price" is typically inflated at the dealer level by at least 5% and as much as 22% to help them cover the costs of readying the car for sale (marketing, tires, etc.) and to provide a profit. This is the amount that the buyer can negotiate on (helping to reduce the "bid/ask"). Asking prices mean very little to me because at the end, it really only matters what the buyer is willing to pay. The dealers gain their leverage from providing an easy point of sale transaction (ability to finance on the spot) along with the sense of comfort/security that one receives from buying said car at a Porsche dealership as opposed to a private party transaction that can sometimes be less "easy." That's why private party transactions are usually "less expensive" as a lot more trust and possibly work is required.
Ok. On with the pricing exercise. Here is a nifty residual table that can be used to help determine an approximate value for the car in question. And yes, residuals can and will change from year to year, but these seem close enough to what is used today (i believe the residuals shown below to be for 15k mi/yr contracts). It's pretty self explanatory; start with a $127k car in year 0 and after 12mo that car's value will have dropped by about 20% (about $25k lost, car's worth after 1yr = $101,600). Year two? The residual is determined by applying the depreciation of the second year to the value of the car AFTER year one (1). 3rd year? You take the value of the car after year two (2) and apply the depreciation to that figure. Here's the catch*. To obtain even better price data, one will want to add monies back (not a small sum given the relatively large numbers we're working with) for lesser mile cars. That's why lease payments become much, much less if the mile allowance is kept to 5k mi./yr. as opposed to 15k mi./yr. That difference? It can be as much as 5% per annum.
or said another way: 1yr = 20% depreciation, 2yr = 31%, 3yr = 38%, 4yr = 42%, 5yr = 46%, 6yr = 50%......then subtract from those numbers the premium (5%, 4%, 3%) for miles less than 15k/yr.
*(taken from blschaefer1's post below) The above residuals are for 15k miles/year. You add 5% to all residuals (values) for 5k miles/year.
You add 4% for 7,500 miles/year, 3% for 10k miles/year, and 2% for 12k miles/year.
Or said another way, subtracting 5% from the 20% depreciation for a 5k mi/yr car after 12mo equates to a 15% depreciation figure, and which amounts to about $6k in lesser depreciation/higher residual in the example above (15% of 127k = $19k, 20% of 127k = $25k in depreciation).
That's pretty much it. We can improve and subtract where need be, but I think this will serve as a good starting point to help others better determine what the fair price is of the car they're either contemplating to buy or sell. Perhaps folks can add updated money factor (right now about .002), residual tables, their own contractual data to help solidify the pricing data. There are other lease/residual threads out there, but i was hoping to aggregate the information into one thread, but more importantly, to help others who have less experience in trying to determine what the "right price" or "good price" of the car in question is.
Bonus (Lease Calculator):
Interested in knowing what the monthly payment for a lease might look like? Use the lease calculator below. You can change the variables/scenarios to have a better understanding how each affect the monthly payment.
The above residuals are for 15k miles/year. You add 5% to all residuals for 5k miles/year.
You add 4% for 7,500 miles/year, 3% for 10k miles/year, and 2% for 12k miles/year.
The MRM is $108,600 for 2017 911
$127,600 for 2017 911S
$106,480 for 2016 911
$123,980 for 2016 911S
The money factor is 0.0020 for both model years also."
Another lease example....a bit more granular in terms of the (monthly) cost of options
Originally Posted by ace37
For those who just want a quick and rough figure, I used the numbers above as a guide to come up with a "typical" lease price for a 2017 911 C2S custom order in early 2016:
2017 911 C2S (991.2) / 30 month / 12k/yr - 65% residual / mf 0.0020 / 6.85% sales tax / 5% discount
Results: About $1500/month for the basic car plus another $125 per $10k in options. Going up or down by 1% on the residual is about a $40 change if you want more or less miles per year, and a better or worse negotiated discount has a similar effect. California residents would pay another ~$50/month or so due to the higher local tax rate. Sample numbers:
$1498 / month => $0 in options = $1069 depreciation + $333 finance + $96 tax
$1625 / month => $10k in options = $1169 depreciation + $352 finance + $104 tax
$1752 / month => $20k in options = $1269 depreciation + $371 finance + $112 tax
$1792 / month => $23.15k in options = $1301 depreciation + $377 finance + $115 tax. I don't know if it's correct, but I assumed the destination fee was part of the MRM.
For comparison, using a 3% APR loan and the same 5% discount and 6.85% tax rate, the same monthly payment would purchase the car over a term of 6.5-7 years with the exact time frame depending on the price. A 2% APR loan moves that ahead by about half a year.
"The Math"
Originally Posted by tgcrun
The math is pretty simple.
Take the MSRP and multiply it by the residual % to get the residual amount.
140,000 X 67% = 93,800
Take the negotiated price and subtract the residual amount
131,600 (6% discount) - 93,800 = 37,800
Divide the resultant number by the lease term
37,800/30 = 1260 (a)
Now add the negotiated price and residual amount
131,600 + 93,800 = 225,400
Multiply the resultant number by the money factor
225,400 X .002 = 451 (b)
Add the amounts a and b above to get the payment without tax
This was a question asked in another thread (but not answered)....Exactly the type of question this thread goes to help answer.
Originally Posted by Dirac
Hi everyone. New Forum member here. Any build/price comments on this offering would be much appreciated. This thread is VERY helpful. No listing price on car.guru.
Dirac, based on the available info, i'd say that car's value is somewhere around $95k-$100k at the dealership level, maybe you buy it $90k-$95k. How did we get there? Let's simply use 15%-20% depreciation for the first year which gets us to $95k-$100k. If we knew the exact mileage then a more exact number could be had, but the number above should be close. Remember, if at the dealership level there's room off of the said price. It's probably not a CPO given its newness/amount of warranty left. It has the Sports Chrono package, SPASM and PSE that folks like, (painted) Sport Techno wheels that I think are one of the nicest on a 991 (wider than the others too), and a MT for the purist in you. An attractive car is what i'm trying to say which should help build some demand.
Thank you so much for the reply. This is a new 2015. So since the 2017 models are out, do both the 20% and 14% depreciation figures apply to this vehicle? Since it is "new", is any % added back in to get a ballpark number for what the dealer might want?
Also remember that there is zero changes from 12.5 to 15 and no issue with the first year production here making a low mileage 12.5 a great value.
If you want options that came later, get the oldest, lowest mileage car with those options that you can. That's what I did to get the best perceived value for me.
Thank you so much for the reply. This is a new 2015. So since the 2017 models are out, do both the 20% and 14% depreciation figures apply to this vehicle? Since it is "new", is any % added back in to get a ballpark number for what the dealer might want?
You're welcome. Anyone can chime in. The car is "new" but it's already 1yr to 2yrs off the run and the dealer knows it. New it is but no one is going to give them or anyone else full monies for it. The fact that the warranty is "not punched" is in the sellers favor. What we do know is that some new purchases receive 5% discounts off of Msrp, and as was said earlier, a dealer is trying to make 10%-22% off each and every deal. Start low and see where that gets you. It should be at the very least 10% off for certain.
Also remember that there is zero changes from 12.5 to 15 and no issue with the first year production here making a low mileage 12.5 a great value.
If you want options that came later, get the oldest, lowest mileage car with those options that you can. That's what I did to get the best perceived value for me.
^ Exactly, and most importantly, you are happy with your deal. Don't let someone else suggest that you paid too much to buy what you wanted.
Thanks for the info, just wondering, source for the depreciation table?
TIA
absolutely. it was supplied in some other thread here at RL....and most probably based off of residual info obtained via forum observations and the like. they seem fairly common to me. again, the thought here is to help folks have a better idea of what "the right price is" for cars they're looking at buying/selling, and possibly leasing. gets one close enough so to speak.
Oalvarez: I wanted to thank you for your posts and effort on this. I have been lurking for many months and your kindness putting this thread together and your sincere help to people are greatly appreciated. You spurred me to actually join today and post. Thank you! I look forward to my first Porsche.
Oalvarez: I wanted to thank you for your posts and effort on this. I have been lurking for many months and your kindness putting this thread together and your sincere help to people are greatly appreciated. You spurred me to actually join today and post. Thank you! I look forward to my first Porsche.