Where will Porsche be in 5 years
02-20-2015, 11:03 AM
#17
Three Wheelin'
AP said there will always be NA engines in the GTx cars. Turbo cars are not here to stay. I call NA-hybrid cars for next gen ...
02-20-2015, 02:21 PM
#18
Initially I was concerned about the MPG challenges, but now I am more concerned about the global warming debate and the pressure being placed on auto makers to move away from fossil fuel powered cars. So I would expect to see Porsche offering at least a few all battery powered cars in five years, and of course hybrids. I expect that the depreciation curve for the current generation of 911s to follow that of the 993: normal depreciation for the first 6 - 8 years and then begin to appreciate significantly.
02-21-2015, 01:22 PM
#19
Three Wheelin'
Unless you sit on the Board of VWAG everything is conjecture shaped by personal preferences. Now, the fun question, and maybe this is better as a new thread and not a post, isn't where any of us think Porsche will be in five to 10 years but: "If you were in charge where would we take the company". Just off the top of my head, here's what I'd do (and they're just mostly ideas that are either silly or could never happen - but it would be nice!)
1. Split PAG into a smallish Sport and a big Luxury Division with 918, 911, Cayman, a new Entry level car and race series line in the former and the Macan, Pananmera, Cayenne in the latter. Stop worrying about cross-over performance and focus on making models in each division as attractive as possible to potential buyers. I think that PAG now has so many models and iterations that something is getting lost based on their belief that they have to cross pollinate and pass performance to all models. Separate divisions allow distinct focus. Oh, and cap the number of cars that will be manufactured in the Sport Division (supply, demand and price pressures should assure profits). Flooding the market with as many 911, Caymans, etc. that you can make dilutes the brand.
2. Continue with the development of the 918 in order to keep up with the Jones's (Ferrari, MacLaren, etc.)
3. Raise the price of the 911 platform to north, well north, of $150K to capture the "luxury" sports car market. This relieves the pressure to continually up the hp/torque and performance to keep up with the sports car competition. In the end the 911 becomes a wealthy persons status-mobile and not the historic sports car that it once was. Hence no pressure on this variant to keep up with every car that offers the same performance ('Vette, GT-R, etc) at half the price - it's now a "sporty" luxury brand - essentially the smaller sports version of the Panamera. All these 911s will be turbo and you can pay more for less de-tuning. Probably all PDK as well.
4. Move the Cayman price point to ~$100K tune it as the sports car offering. The Cayman becomes what the 911 used to be and really, it is a better package to put a 400+ hp engine into. It is the car that enthusiasts would want, as the 911 becomes more Aston Martin-ish. Available in PDK or manual and as either a coupe of cab. The higher price for smaller car (with less weight!) should preserve exclusivity and positive brand identity - particularly when compared to an uber-luxurious 911. And all these would be Turbo, again with varying degrees of de-tuning.
5. Eliminate the Boxster line because the Cayman can now be had as a Cab.
6. Because the Boxster is eliminated it is possible to introduce an entry level Porsche Sports car priced in the ~$50K range (but not over $75K-$80K when you add options). Again, the price segments the car as exclusive and ameliorates the "Entry Level" stigma.
7. Establish a Sport/Racing line. Within this group is 911 GT3/GT2/RS consumer model and a Cayman equivalent of what the current GT3 relationship is to a C2S. The 911 Sport/Racer would be a bare bones (not luxury) car that is really more intended for track use but can be driven (uncomfortably) on the street - kind of like the RS America but way more expensive for much less. Make these models available as PDK or manual and have them be normally aspirated. (PAG: "You want NA cars, of course we'll give them to you - but for a price!")
8. The Luxury division, well, I don't pay too much attention to Cayenne's, Panamera's or Macans but they are profitable so keep on doing what it does best - make money!
1. Split PAG into a smallish Sport and a big Luxury Division with 918, 911, Cayman, a new Entry level car and race series line in the former and the Macan, Pananmera, Cayenne in the latter. Stop worrying about cross-over performance and focus on making models in each division as attractive as possible to potential buyers. I think that PAG now has so many models and iterations that something is getting lost based on their belief that they have to cross pollinate and pass performance to all models. Separate divisions allow distinct focus. Oh, and cap the number of cars that will be manufactured in the Sport Division (supply, demand and price pressures should assure profits). Flooding the market with as many 911, Caymans, etc. that you can make dilutes the brand.
2. Continue with the development of the 918 in order to keep up with the Jones's (Ferrari, MacLaren, etc.)
3. Raise the price of the 911 platform to north, well north, of $150K to capture the "luxury" sports car market. This relieves the pressure to continually up the hp/torque and performance to keep up with the sports car competition. In the end the 911 becomes a wealthy persons status-mobile and not the historic sports car that it once was. Hence no pressure on this variant to keep up with every car that offers the same performance ('Vette, GT-R, etc) at half the price - it's now a "sporty" luxury brand - essentially the smaller sports version of the Panamera. All these 911s will be turbo and you can pay more for less de-tuning. Probably all PDK as well.
4. Move the Cayman price point to ~$100K tune it as the sports car offering. The Cayman becomes what the 911 used to be and really, it is a better package to put a 400+ hp engine into. It is the car that enthusiasts would want, as the 911 becomes more Aston Martin-ish. Available in PDK or manual and as either a coupe of cab. The higher price for smaller car (with less weight!) should preserve exclusivity and positive brand identity - particularly when compared to an uber-luxurious 911. And all these would be Turbo, again with varying degrees of de-tuning.
5. Eliminate the Boxster line because the Cayman can now be had as a Cab.
6. Because the Boxster is eliminated it is possible to introduce an entry level Porsche Sports car priced in the ~$50K range (but not over $75K-$80K when you add options). Again, the price segments the car as exclusive and ameliorates the "Entry Level" stigma.
7. Establish a Sport/Racing line. Within this group is 911 GT3/GT2/RS consumer model and a Cayman equivalent of what the current GT3 relationship is to a C2S. The 911 Sport/Racer would be a bare bones (not luxury) car that is really more intended for track use but can be driven (uncomfortably) on the street - kind of like the RS America but way more expensive for much less. Make these models available as PDK or manual and have them be normally aspirated. (PAG: "You want NA cars, of course we'll give them to you - but for a price!")
8. The Luxury division, well, I don't pay too much attention to Cayenne's, Panamera's or Macans but they are profitable so keep on doing what it does best - make money!
02-21-2015, 04:55 PM
#20
4. Move the Cayman price point to ~$100K tune it as the sports car offering. The Cayman becomes what the 911 used to be and really, it is a better package to put a 400+ hp engine into. It is the car that enthusiasts would want, as the 911 becomes more Aston Martin-ish. Available in PDK or manual and as either a coupe of cab. The higher price for smaller car (with less weight!) should preserve exclusivity and positive brand identity - particularly when compared to an uber-luxurious 911. And all these would be Turbo, again with varying degrees of de-tuning.
I believe all of your suggestions have merit, but I especially like number 4. The GT4 is essentially a $100K car now and has 385 HP. From what I've read the GT4 setup may not be ideal for the average Cayman buyer. So the Cayman GTS could become the norm with a 400 HP engine, and sticker in the upper $90Ks.
The 911 could then move into that highly exclusive $150K+ market, and become an outstanding 450HP+ GT luxury car.
You would then have a Cayman and a 911 that would appeal to two distinct market groups with zero overlap.
I believe all of your suggestions have merit, but I especially like number 4. The GT4 is essentially a $100K car now and has 385 HP. From what I've read the GT4 setup may not be ideal for the average Cayman buyer. So the Cayman GTS could become the norm with a 400 HP engine, and sticker in the upper $90Ks.
The 911 could then move into that highly exclusive $150K+ market, and become an outstanding 450HP+ GT luxury car.
You would then have a Cayman and a 911 that would appeal to two distinct market groups with zero overlap.
02-21-2015, 05:31 PM
#21
Drifting
4. Move the Cayman price point to ~$100K tune it as the sports car offering. The Cayman becomes what the 911 used to be and really, it is a better package to put a 400+ hp engine into. It is the car that enthusiasts would want, as the 911 becomes more Aston Martin-ish. Available in PDK or manual and as either a coupe of cab. The higher price for smaller car (with less weight!) should preserve exclusivity and positive brand identity - particularly when compared to an uber-luxurious 911. And all these would be Turbo, again with varying degrees of de-tuning.
I believe all of your suggestions have merit, but I especially like number 4. The GT4 is essentially a $100K car now and has 385 HP. From what I've read the GT4 setup may not be ideal for the average Cayman buyer. So the Cayman GTS could become the norm with a 400 HP engine, and sticker in the upper $90Ks.
The 911 could then move into that highly exclusive $150K+ market, and become an outstanding 450HP+ GT luxury car.
You would then have a Cayman and a 911 that would appeal to two distinct market groups with zero overlap.
I believe all of your suggestions have merit, but I especially like number 4. The GT4 is essentially a $100K car now and has 385 HP. From what I've read the GT4 setup may not be ideal for the average Cayman buyer. So the Cayman GTS could become the norm with a 400 HP engine, and sticker in the upper $90Ks.
The 911 could then move into that highly exclusive $150K+ market, and become an outstanding 450HP+ GT luxury car.
You would then have a Cayman and a 911 that would appeal to two distinct market groups with zero overlap.
02-21-2015, 06:14 PM
#22
So for those who want the pure sports car experience, the 400 HP Cayman would be the clear choice, and the 911 would "evolve" into a sports orientated GT car. I expect that your 3800 lb reference is hyperbole, but yes the 911 would be heavier. The current curb weight of a base 991 is around 3050 lbs. The car I envision would have a max curb weight of 3200 lbs.
Of course no one knows what Porsche will do, but they certainly don't want to have two models competing for the same market.
02-21-2015, 07:04 PM
#23
Drifting
The point is that with the 981 GTS and GT4 introductions, you now have two models, Cayman and 991, that clearly overlap. As a former owner of a 1970 911, it's my opinion that the 981 GTS captures the spirit of that 1970 911 a lot more than a 991.
So for those who want the pure sports car experience, the 400 HP Cayman would be the clear choice, and the 911 would "evolve" into a sports orientated GT car. I expect that your 3800 lb reference is hyperbole, but yes the 911 would be heavier. The current curb weight of a base 991 is around 3050 lbs. The car I envision would have a max curb weight of 3200 lbs.
Of course no one knows what Porsche will do, but they certainly don't want to have two models competing for the same market.
So for those who want the pure sports car experience, the 400 HP Cayman would be the clear choice, and the 911 would "evolve" into a sports orientated GT car. I expect that your 3800 lb reference is hyperbole, but yes the 911 would be heavier. The current curb weight of a base 991 is around 3050 lbs. The car I envision would have a max curb weight of 3200 lbs.
Of course no one knows what Porsche will do, but they certainly don't want to have two models competing for the same market.
I'm curious about the reasons behind you saying the 981 is more like your 2.2 than the 991. It doesn't weigh any less similarly equipped. It is a wee bit shorter, but both still dwarf a long-hood, and the 981 is much closer to the 991 in every way than it is to the original 911.
But what it lacks is the distinctive rear-engine handling traits; this is what those of us who revere the 911 want. Sure, much of that has been tamed out of the current platform, but I've owned 911s and Boxsters of the same generation, and all I can say is, in the corners a 911 is still a 911. It is a characteristic that I value greatly, and in fact, as good as the middies are, they're just another mid-engined car. Sure, I'm happy they exist and I wouldn't mind owning a 981 flavor, but it wouldn't replace the 911 in my playbook. And neither does an AM-type 911 if it weighs what AMs weigh.
02-21-2015, 07:40 PM
#24
Three Wheelin'
Honestly, I have nothing against a rear-engine platform. Porsche should be commended for all the engineering they have done to not only make each successive Carrera/911 safer to drive but in wringing out more and more hp/torque from a flat six. (And they did a generally fine job with their sports car transaxle models too (924, 928, 944, 968 and any 9xx that I may have forgot).) The point is, times do change, markets change and "evolution" ends up as a dead end or takes an odd turn that allows a car brand to survive. Right now the beloved 911 is serving two masters - the luxury brand buyers and the enthusiasts and to me it seems really not meeting the needs and wants of either.
02-21-2015, 07:58 PM
#25
Drifting
Well, somebody likes them.
U.S Sales for 2014 were 10,433 vs. 10,442 for 2013. That's a very good sign when a model sells the same number in model year 3 that it did in year 2.
And it compares well to the 7292 much less expensive 981s sold in 2014 and the 7953 in 2013 (first year of 981).
Not sure what you mean by it "not meeting the needs and wants of either." They've never sold more 911s than they are now, as far as I know.
We can discuss whether that's serving the hardcore traditionalist well or not, but it seems pretty much a sure thing that it's serving somebody (and maybe both of the masters you mention) pretty well. Have you checked US AM V8 and DB9 sales recently?
U.S Sales for 2014 were 10,433 vs. 10,442 for 2013. That's a very good sign when a model sells the same number in model year 3 that it did in year 2.
And it compares well to the 7292 much less expensive 981s sold in 2014 and the 7953 in 2013 (first year of 981).
Not sure what you mean by it "not meeting the needs and wants of either." They've never sold more 911s than they are now, as far as I know.
We can discuss whether that's serving the hardcore traditionalist well or not, but it seems pretty much a sure thing that it's serving somebody (and maybe both of the masters you mention) pretty well. Have you checked US AM V8 and DB9 sales recently?
02-21-2015, 08:02 PM
#26
Wow, sounds like you're breaking a lot of stuff that's working fine.
Doubt they'd sell enough $150k 911s to hit any economies of scale. Strip the sports cars away and the profitable sedan and SUVs lose lots of badge luster.
Boxster is a well recognized brand... Just kill it?
I think Porsche would be really cool as described but quickly bankrupt.
Doubt they'd sell enough $150k 911s to hit any economies of scale. Strip the sports cars away and the profitable sedan and SUVs lose lots of badge luster.
Boxster is a well recognized brand... Just kill it?
I think Porsche would be really cool as described but quickly bankrupt.
02-22-2015, 12:49 AM
#27
Three Wheelin'
Well, somebody likes them.
U.S Sales for 2014 were 10,433 vs. 10,442 for 2013. That's a very good sign when a model sells the same number in model year 3 that it did in year 2.
And it compares well to the 7292 much less expensive 981s sold in 2014 and the 7953 in 2013 (first year of 981).
Not sure what you mean by it "not meeting the needs and wants of either." They've never sold more 911s than they are now, as far as I know.
We can discuss whether that's serving the hardcore traditionalist well or not, but it seems pretty much a sure thing that it's serving somebody (and maybe both of the masters you mention) pretty well. Have you checked US AM V8 and DB9 sales recently?
U.S Sales for 2014 were 10,433 vs. 10,442 for 2013. That's a very good sign when a model sells the same number in model year 3 that it did in year 2.
And it compares well to the 7292 much less expensive 981s sold in 2014 and the 7953 in 2013 (first year of 981).
Not sure what you mean by it "not meeting the needs and wants of either." They've never sold more 911s than they are now, as far as I know.
We can discuss whether that's serving the hardcore traditionalist well or not, but it seems pretty much a sure thing that it's serving somebody (and maybe both of the masters you mention) pretty well. Have you checked US AM V8 and DB9 sales recently?
But in the spirit of having fun and running with the idea, and I don't mean this sarcastically, where would you take the company if you were in charge.
02-22-2015, 09:12 AM
#28
Drifting
No, no, your're right - or maybe you're not. It's just all hypothetical fun! When I was in grad school (biology) we'd sit often sit around discussing well, stuff that would sound pathetically pedantic here. The point is, it's a thought exercise and one or two good points (with 50 duds) are a score. So yeah, PAG sells a lot of units but it's the academic/hopeless or clueless romantic in me that thinks maybe it's more about a legacy than selling units. But I don't have a fiduciary responsibility (oh yeah, and VWAG/PAG isn't leaving messages asking for my opinion as if the Truth went from God's mouth to my ear) so it is easy for me to come up with good or idiotic ideas. It's all good, a fun back-and-forth.
But in the spirit of having fun and running with the idea, and I don't mean this sarcastically, where would you take the company if you were in charge.
But in the spirit of having fun and running with the idea, and I don't mean this sarcastically, where would you take the company if you were in charge.
I've written many times that when it comes time to buy a new sportscar, I consider what is currently available from PCNA, and for some reason that's as far as I go. It's weird. I've always felt the AM Vantage V8 to be a breathtakingly beautiful car. The R8, while not beautiful to me, offers a whole lot of exclusivity and a certain gravitas that should be explored when one is looking for sports cars on the far side of a buck-twenty-five. The new F-Type V8 makes a compelling argument. Benz is trying to woo me with its AMG phallic missile, due on the streets any day now. Surely Nissan's amazing GTR is worth a look, considering it has GT2RS performance at a 3.4 Carrera price. And the Z06 Vette makes 75 more ft.lbs of torque AT IDLE than the Carrera GTS maximum! And don't forget how much change I'd get back from my $136,000 GTS MSRP if I used that money for a full track-package Viper.But I reflected on all of this AFTER I got back from ordering a GTS. I'm fairly busy or I would have milked this for a bunch of test drives in good cars, but other than that I just had no interest in even thinking about anything else.
And that all derives from starting my driving career in the early 1980s, and having been a race fan in the second-half of the seventies, when Porsche was just about the only game in town for sports car racing. 40 years of steeping myself in Porsche racing glory, the bulk of it coming from 911s (not at the highest classes, of course, but down in the trenches in GT2 and GT3 and Group 4 and Group 5, etc.
So for me, "Aspirational Sports Car" has a certain shape, and that looks like a backwards teardrop, with a flat-six motor hanging over the back axle.
If Porsche begins applying the term "911" to a 2-door Panny, or to a mid-engined drop top, I'm not saying I'd drop the brand in a heartbeat, just that they would lose that position they currently hold for me, which is the default sports car position; it's theirs to lose anytime I'm buying another one. If they fundamentally transform the 911, I go out and test drive all those cars I mentioned above, and the case could be made that the 911 doesn't even finish in the top three.
So... what do I do with the company if VAG taps me as the next Prez?
Well... They'd actually have to make me head of VAG, cuz what I'd like to do is return Porsche to its long historical tradition (pre-2002 or whenever it was that the Cayenne came out) of making only sports and GT cars. Lots of flavors of sports cars, to be sure, but only those.
The argument was always made "they have to sell Cayennes and Pannys to stay independent..." Well, that's obviously gone.
So I tap Porsche Engineering every time I need a hot new Audi S-Line SUV or Sedan. I put a (fairly prominent) badge on the side and in the cockpit that says something to the effect of "Engineered by Porsche." So I give the world cars and trucks that drive like Cayennes, Macans and Pannys, but look like Audis. THAT would be a great hybrid.
Then I get back to making Porsche an exclusive, sporting-focused brand. I reach up-market with a Ferrari-fighter of some sort, priced 10% above a loaded Turbo S and 10-20% below a 488 Ferrari. I make sure that when you look at the field of sports cars at LeMans and Petit LeMans Porsche is the marque to beat. I reduce the options in the 911 portfolio a bit, but still leave you with rear- and all wheel drive, coupe and cab. Targa hits the road. GT road cars stay, Turbo stays. So we retain the latitude to offer a whole lot of variation between a base 911, an S, maybe a GTS, a GT3 and Turbo, but start cutting down the proliferation of body-shell options within those offerings.
Boxster remains the entry-level Porsche; if we need a cheaper one, we let Porsche tweak the Boxster/Cayman platform to build a RWD TT replacement for Audi, with the "Engineered by Porsche" badges all over it. But we keep all Porsches on the far side of 55k in today's dollars.
I think that about does it.
Does it make sense financially for VAG? Maybe -- maybe for every sale Porsche loses Audi picks up once people figure out it's the old Panny and Cayenne in beautiful new Audi clothing. Or maybe not, and I get canned. If that happens, I'll just orchestrate a LBO of VAG and then sell off most of the parts, fire everybody I don't like, and by then I'll be old enough to retire, surely.
02-22-2015, 12:10 PM
#29
I have no issue with Porsche building suv's and sedans.
Just keep their sports cars truly sports cars.
As BMW gets soft, Porsche making a great 3 series size car would appeal to me. The consumer market likes suv's as their sedans now though so they are going towards the easy money first with the Macan This is jag's mistake developing the XE before filling out their portfolio with a large and small SUV.
Porsche is ready to build a pajun or whatever they will call it. They could see big numbers if they develop it even if it ends up off the audi A4 chassis.
I am going to be new to the Porsche brand with the GT4. History and heritage means little. I have been a big BMW fan and VW driver over my life because they offered the values I look for at my budget. Prestige means nothing. I buy the car for what it offers.
I have a daily driving sedan (3 series, RWD, 6MT) and now I am adding a true sports car. Great two car garage. Time will tell if the GT4 is too much car for me and I will regress back to a TT-RS for a sporty 2nd car for the real world. With the demand for the GT4, the depreciation should be slow and I may not even need to add much money to get that TT-RS in 3-4 years time. If Porsche could supply me a small sedan I would be thrilled. I want a fun car that i can put 20k a year on it as my DD when the 3 has racked up 180-240k Km.
Just keep their sports cars truly sports cars.
As BMW gets soft, Porsche making a great 3 series size car would appeal to me. The consumer market likes suv's as their sedans now though so they are going towards the easy money first with the Macan This is jag's mistake developing the XE before filling out their portfolio with a large and small SUV.
Porsche is ready to build a pajun or whatever they will call it. They could see big numbers if they develop it even if it ends up off the audi A4 chassis.
I am going to be new to the Porsche brand with the GT4. History and heritage means little. I have been a big BMW fan and VW driver over my life because they offered the values I look for at my budget. Prestige means nothing. I buy the car for what it offers.
I have a daily driving sedan (3 series, RWD, 6MT) and now I am adding a true sports car. Great two car garage. Time will tell if the GT4 is too much car for me and I will regress back to a TT-RS for a sporty 2nd car for the real world. With the demand for the GT4, the depreciation should be slow and I may not even need to add much money to get that TT-RS in 3-4 years time. If Porsche could supply me a small sedan I would be thrilled. I want a fun car that i can put 20k a year on it as my DD when the 3 has racked up 180-240k Km.
Last edited by focal; 02-23-2015 at 03:02 PM.
02-22-2015, 01:09 PM
#30
Three Wheelin'
Very good points, all! It would be amazing to see Porsche return to its Sports Car only roots - in a lot of ways, like Ferrari, untethered from whoever owns them now, and able to focus on performance. A nice dream anyway because, really, would people buy a Panamera if it had a VW logo on it and was called a Phaeton or a Toureg instead of a Cayenne?