End of year - the worst time to buy a porsche?
12-15-2017, 02:37 PM
#1
End of year - the worst time to buy a porsche?
Been in the market for either a CPO 2016 or a custom order 2018 GTS...
On the new car, my planned build is around 140k, but no one seem to have an allocation. Is this a weird time when dealers have sold all their 2017 allocations and are waiting for 2018 ones? Think i might have to wait this one out...
On the 2016 (most are built h2 2015), the prices seem to be holding exceptionally high. Well equipped CPOs with under 5k miles are going for ~120k. Considering original MSRP around 140k, thats only a 15% depreciation which seems a little crazy to me. If im not mistaken, back in 2016 people could've gotten better deals on newish 2015s.... Dealers seem to be holding pretty firm on these prices as well, but then again most of these cars have been sitting on the lot for the past 1-2 months at this price. What do people think would be a reasonable price for these guys?
BTW please don't make this into another na vs turbo discussion. I test drove both extensively, to me the little difference in motor and sound, the newer car makes up for it in refinement. For me, its mostly coming down to timing/price etc.
On the new car, my planned build is around 140k, but no one seem to have an allocation. Is this a weird time when dealers have sold all their 2017 allocations and are waiting for 2018 ones? Think i might have to wait this one out...
On the 2016 (most are built h2 2015), the prices seem to be holding exceptionally high. Well equipped CPOs with under 5k miles are going for ~120k. Considering original MSRP around 140k, thats only a 15% depreciation which seems a little crazy to me. If im not mistaken, back in 2016 people could've gotten better deals on newish 2015s.... Dealers seem to be holding pretty firm on these prices as well, but then again most of these cars have been sitting on the lot for the past 1-2 months at this price. What do people think would be a reasonable price for these guys?
BTW please don't make this into another na vs turbo discussion. I test drove both extensively, to me the little difference in motor and sound, the newer car makes up for it in refinement. For me, its mostly coming down to timing/price etc.
12-15-2017, 03:40 PM
#2
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The week after Christmas is an epic time to buy CPO. With limited allocations - people have to either pay or not get one. It's a great market strategy for Porsche.
FWIW - I got my CPO Cab with 1200 miles for a hell of a deal in December of 2016 and even now that it has almost 9K miles I could sell it for what I paid. Part of that is buying a cab in winter and part is that was the beginning of the 911 contemporary market holding strong by the old cars going nuts and the desirability of the NA's. The new cars are great and if you value refinement then no shame in that. I think the #1 cars were a goldilocks effect on last of NA and the old cars getting stupid in price. These things also pushed up the prices holding strong in #2 cars. Just my opinion though.
I'd not be comfortable paying any more than 20% off MSRP on a 2015 - and that even seems over my comfort level. I got 35% off mine at the time with stupid low miles and CPO.
FWIW - I got my CPO Cab with 1200 miles for a hell of a deal in December of 2016 and even now that it has almost 9K miles I could sell it for what I paid. Part of that is buying a cab in winter and part is that was the beginning of the 911 contemporary market holding strong by the old cars going nuts and the desirability of the NA's. The new cars are great and if you value refinement then no shame in that. I think the #1 cars were a goldilocks effect on last of NA and the old cars getting stupid in price. These things also pushed up the prices holding strong in #2 cars. Just my opinion though.
I'd not be comfortable paying any more than 20% off MSRP on a 2015 - and that even seems over my comfort level. I got 35% off mine at the time with stupid low miles and CPO.
12-15-2017, 04:26 PM
#3
ya was expecting for something more like 30%, you know, a pretty natural and reasonable depreciation curve. But seems like dealers rather let the cars rot on the lot than selling them. crazy.
12-16-2017, 09:29 PM
#5
The basic 911 US market right now is as squishy as a marshmallow. Check out the new 2017 lot car prices on Autotrader. Plenty of inventory and big dollars off.
Basic 911's are not selling well. And that's been true for several years. At least in NA. Check out the past reports like this one. http://press.porsche.com/news/release.php?id=1056. The only reason the numbers here are halfway decent are (1) the cars are being discounted and (2) 911 GT variants (included in the numbers) are hot.
If you want a good deal, look, be flexible on build, and where to pick it up and you can find one.
Good luck with it.
12-17-2017, 01:39 AM
#6
Was able to get a few options on the new car with reasonable discount.
Still debating on going CPO and saving some money. But its really hard to justify 120k on a car that was original 144k. It's got great specs for a 16 GTS. SPASM, full leather (blk and red), 18 way seats + premium plus package, topped off with aerokit cup. But again i keep coming back to the price. Only 17% depreciation for a two and half year old car!
Still debating on going CPO and saving some money. But its really hard to justify 120k on a car that was original 144k. It's got great specs for a 16 GTS. SPASM, full leather (blk and red), 18 way seats + premium plus package, topped off with aerokit cup. But again i keep coming back to the price. Only 17% depreciation for a two and half year old car!
12-17-2017, 02:41 AM
#7
This should be the BEST time to buy. The 911 world is mixed up because .1 prices have rose and held so high (now 997's are following suit, etc.) thus dealers are less incentivized to discount 911's like they would other cars. When I was searching .1's in summer, trying to negotiate $2K discounts seemed impossible while those same cars sold right out from under me. Then mix that with GT3's just arriving with massive upmarks, and the average transaction prices for used 911's is simply holding strong. Which will then influence them to resist discounting new models too much, though you'll get better discounts on new models than used.
If resale is a determining factor, that '16 showing such little depreciation while on a technical basis doesn't seem like a good deal, signifies where the market has positioned it due to being a "last of." It's a good bet (to me there's no question) that it'll be selling for more than the .2 GTS by the time the warranty for both cars runs out (plausibly sooner, imo).
I was told by a dealer that 2018 allocations will be ZILCH. As in a handful (for them, and they're the biggest dealer in the city) for the entire year. Likely until the 992 comes out.
Purely personally, being that the 992's are coming out next year, I would either get an N/A car (and I'm not getting into the technicality argument, but I believe their resale will continue to hold higher) or wait for the 992. Or, a stripped GT3 isn't much more than an equipped new GTS, and will probably never really lose value. Of course, whether or not you can find one at MSRP is a different story.
If resale is a determining factor, that '16 showing such little depreciation while on a technical basis doesn't seem like a good deal, signifies where the market has positioned it due to being a "last of." It's a good bet (to me there's no question) that it'll be selling for more than the .2 GTS by the time the warranty for both cars runs out (plausibly sooner, imo).
I was told by a dealer that 2018 allocations will be ZILCH. As in a handful (for them, and they're the biggest dealer in the city) for the entire year. Likely until the 992 comes out.
Purely personally, being that the 992's are coming out next year, I would either get an N/A car (and I'm not getting into the technicality argument, but I believe their resale will continue to hold higher) or wait for the 992. Or, a stripped GT3 isn't much more than an equipped new GTS, and will probably never really lose value. Of course, whether or not you can find one at MSRP is a different story.
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12-17-2017, 02:56 AM
#8
This should be the BEST time to buy. The 911 world is mixed up because .1 prices have rose and held so high (now 997's are following suit, etc.) thus dealers are less incentivized to discount 911's like they would other cars. When I was searching .1's in summer, trying to negotiate $2K discounts seemed impossible while those same cars sold right out from under me. Then mix that with GT3's just arriving with massive upmarks, and the average transaction prices for used 911's is simply holding strong. Which will then influence them to resist discounting new models too much, though you'll get better discounts on new models than used.
If resale is a determining factor, that '16 showing such little depreciation while on a technical basis doesn't seem like a good deal, signifies where the market has positioned it due to being a "last of." It's a good bet (to me there's no question) that it'll be selling for more than the .2 GTS by the time the warranty for both cars runs out (plausibly sooner, imo).
I was told by a dealer that 2018 allocations will be ZILCH. As in a handful (for them, and they're the biggest dealer in the city) for the entire year. Likely until the 992 comes out.
Purely personally, being that the 992's are coming out next year, I would either get an N/A car (and I'm not getting into the technicality argument, but I believe their resale will continue to hold higher) or wait for the 992. Or, a stripped GT3 isn't much more than an equipped new GTS, and will probably never really lose value. Of course, whether or not you can find one at MSRP is a different story.
If resale is a determining factor, that '16 showing such little depreciation while on a technical basis doesn't seem like a good deal, signifies where the market has positioned it due to being a "last of." It's a good bet (to me there's no question) that it'll be selling for more than the .2 GTS by the time the warranty for both cars runs out (plausibly sooner, imo).
I was told by a dealer that 2018 allocations will be ZILCH. As in a handful (for them, and they're the biggest dealer in the city) for the entire year. Likely until the 992 comes out.
Purely personally, being that the 992's are coming out next year, I would either get an N/A car (and I'm not getting into the technicality argument, but I believe their resale will continue to hold higher) or wait for the 992. Or, a stripped GT3 isn't much more than an equipped new GTS, and will probably never really lose value. Of course, whether or not you can find one at MSRP is a different story.
Jokes aside, GT3 was an option i considered, but i would probably be car-less until end of 2018 if i wanna get one at MSRP. Also with a baby down the road potentially, those rear seats might become useful.
I just can't get over the fact that i would need to pay that much money for a used car that i didn't get to spec out myself. It has most of the options i would get on my 18 GTS sure, but its black, which IMO hides a lot of the nice curves on a 911. Again, I've seen folks over the past year or so get better deals than this. Contrary to HSF, this would cold for sale, or frozen for sale. Also my prediction with this high priced GTS market is pretty temporary. With a lot of CPO .1 GT3s flooding the market at around 130-140, and more GTSs too as a lot of these folks are trading up to .2 GT3, I honestly feel like this is the worst time to get into one in terms of price / demand.
In terms allocations, it seems like C2 and S's are pretty easy to come by. But the GTSs are definitely much harder. Not sure what the past gts allocations have been like, but based on the convo with a few dealers around the area, it seems like each dealer are getting single digits of these for the year.. (but then again it could be just them trolling to hike up the price)
12-17-2017, 03:09 AM
#9
haha, if i didn't read see your name, i would think you are sent here by the dealers! But then i realized its just KA speaking
Jokes aside, GT3 was an option i considered, but i would probably be car-less until end of 2018 if i wanna get one at MSRP. Also with a baby down the road potentially, those rear seats might become useful.
I just can't get over the fact that i would need to pay that much money for a used car that i didn't get to spec out myself. It has most of the options i would get on my 18 GTS sure, but its black, which IMO hides a lot of the nice curves on a 911. Again, I've seen folks over the past year or so get better deals than this. Contrary to HSF, this would cold for sale, or frozen for sale. Also my prediction with this high priced GTS market is pretty temporary. With a lot of CPO .1 GT3s flooding the market at around 130-140, and more GTSs too as a lot of these folks are trading up to .2 GT3, I honestly feel like this is the worst time to get into one in terms of price / demand.
In terms allocations, it seems like C2 and S's are pretty easy to come by. But the GTSs are definitely much harder. Not sure what the past gts allocations have been like, but based on the convo with a few dealers around the area, it seems like each dealer are getting single digits of these for the year.. (but then again it could be just them trolling to hike up the price)
Jokes aside, GT3 was an option i considered, but i would probably be car-less until end of 2018 if i wanna get one at MSRP. Also with a baby down the road potentially, those rear seats might become useful.
I just can't get over the fact that i would need to pay that much money for a used car that i didn't get to spec out myself. It has most of the options i would get on my 18 GTS sure, but its black, which IMO hides a lot of the nice curves on a 911. Again, I've seen folks over the past year or so get better deals than this. Contrary to HSF, this would cold for sale, or frozen for sale. Also my prediction with this high priced GTS market is pretty temporary. With a lot of CPO .1 GT3s flooding the market at around 130-140, and more GTSs too as a lot of these folks are trading up to .2 GT3, I honestly feel like this is the worst time to get into one in terms of price / demand.
In terms allocations, it seems like C2 and S's are pretty easy to come by. But the GTSs are definitely much harder. Not sure what the past gts allocations have been like, but based on the convo with a few dealers around the area, it seems like each dealer are getting single digits of these for the year.. (but then again it could be just them trolling to hike up the price)
911 prices going forward will be anomaly's within the car market. Normal rules don't apply. Between the last of the N/A cars, the remaining eras with manuals, both together, the new digital 911's, GT cars, etc. etc., I wouldn't get hung up on what "should" be. I passed up lots of great .1's because I was stubborn to play ball with such a hot market. But I lost lots of great cars (fortunately it worked out for me as I stumbled upon the one I got when I was ready to give up, and got it at a price I didn't think possible, though I had to fly across country to get it and literally got lucky with that "rich guy with a warehouse of cars who just wants to get rid of some" scenario).
What's happening with the '16 prices as you see is the market predicting its own future. I will wager that the 2018 you're pricing out, though not much more expensive than the 2016, will see more depreciation during your term with it. But then you have to factor in which you will fundamentally enjoy more to truly value your total "cost" while owning it.
One thing REALLY benefitting .1 GTS's extra so, is the .1 GT3 engine issues. Even with the extended warranty's, .1 GTS's are starting to be deemed the ultimate pre-.2 GT3 N/A 911's. Which is what you're seeing reflected in their prices.
But if you don't like the color, the whole issue is moot. I too don't care for black at all (I wouldn't get a 911 in it as like you said, I need to see those lines). Don't pay $120K for a car with a color you don't love. Remember that there's no rush. Worst case is that prices don't move down, but maybe expand your search or wait for the "perfect build."
12-17-2017, 09:05 AM
#10
Buying a 911 I would definitly pay a premium for the car, that perfectly matches my needs, especially the color combination. Thinking about the price is only a thing until you pick it up, after this moment you will not think a minute about it any more. Good luck!
12-17-2017, 09:45 AM
#11
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Originally Posted by basic666
Was able to get a few options on the new car with reasonable discount.
Still debating on going CPO and saving some money. But its really hard to justify 120k on a car that was original 144k. It's got great specs for a 16 GTS. SPASM, full leather (blk and red), 18 way seats + premium plus package, topped off with aerokit cup. But again i keep coming back to the price. Only 17% depreciation for a two and half year old car!
Still debating on going CPO and saving some money. But its really hard to justify 120k on a car that was original 144k. It's got great specs for a 16 GTS. SPASM, full leather (blk and red), 18 way seats + premium plus package, topped off with aerokit cup. But again i keep coming back to the price. Only 17% depreciation for a two and half year old car!