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You're on the right track. It is both time and distance. The algorithm will also show service due if you are piling the miles on quickly over a short time. It expects you will continue to do so and will warn when you have two weeks to go with the current rate of putting miles on.
The standard time is 365 days and distance is 10K miles.
At the service reset both of these values are reset. So the time is from the most recent service not the "age" of the car.
You really think that service reminder is that smart?
It's time or mileage.
The date doesn't change from it's last reset point.
It is actually. You are correct that the hard stop is time or mileage whichever comes first. It's not a date but rather a counter that decrements each day since the reset. All VW group cars apply the logic to inform you that service is coming up soon. And in other than US markets it even gets more complicated with the use of long life oil.
The OP should look at in the vehicle menu in the display, then info and service intervals to see both the remaining time and mileage. I bet it's not 0.
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