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Old 01-12-2016 | 04:45 PM
  #76  
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Originally Posted by TRAKCAR
My delivery miles add provenance that's invaluable come 2050.
Yup, got that Trakcar premium. When's your birthday? I want to send you out some clear LED side markers for the car.
Old 01-12-2016 | 04:47 PM
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Ugh, I know the dealer has them on back order but promised them FOC.
So, you know, free.
Old 01-13-2016 | 02:38 AM
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This one couldn't get a bid over $280k, probably due to the lack of full leather...

http://www.ebay.com/itm/141869897013?_trksid=p2060353.m1438.l2648&ssPageName=STRK%3AMEBIDX%3AIT
Old 01-13-2016 | 09:46 AM
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Originally Posted by usctrojanGT3
This one couldn't get a bid over $280k, probably due to the lack of full leather... Video Link: http://www.ebay.com/itm/141869897013?_trksid=p2060353.m1438.l2648&ssPageName=STRK%3AMEBIDX%3AIT
So it's not only the stealerships hoarding the cars and asking a premium that you have a problem with. It's anyone who is selling one for more than they paid for it...
C'mon Martin
I'm curious to see what you list your rs for the day that you sell it...
Old 01-13-2016 | 12:58 PM
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Originally Posted by usctrojanGT3
Yes I realize that it's one data point, but it's still a FMV data point with a willing buyer and seller. So a NO RESERVE Ebay auction reveals that the price for a new RS with delivery miles is ~ $75k over MSRP.

Not the $100k-$200k over that most stealers want.
You are aware of the concept of asking more for a car than you are actually willing to take for it post negotiation, right?

If you want $75k, you ask $100k, not $75k.
Old 01-13-2016 | 02:31 PM
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So last time I counted it was something like 23 RS for sale on ebay. Most of them $150k+ over msrp asking price. Only saw one buy it now at $299k which is the lowest ATM. Time will tell but prices will eventually come down closer to msrp.
Old 01-13-2016 | 03:11 PM
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Originally Posted by Archimedes
Disagree and think you're massively oversimplifying both issues. Negative pressures on oil are both supply and demand side right now, though obviously OPEC/supply is the biggest issue. And I don't know where you're getting that statistic that 75 percent of shale producers have gone out of business. I'd like to see support for that. New rig count is definitely way down, but the shake out in shale so far hasn't been anywhere near that. U.S. shale producers have lowered costs and proven to be a lot more resilient than anyone expected. And with the very real slowdown in China, along with the brewing middle east conflict between the Saudis and the Iranians, I don't see oil rising anytime soon. Everyone who's been repeatedly forecasting a recovery have been wrong. Even Goldman's now changed to a bearish view on oil.

As regards China, the slowdown they're seeing is anything but 'natural' by Chinese standards. Couple that with the fact that their equity markets are a total valuation mess (with way too much expected growth priced in already) and the government's constantly changing, learn-as-we-go approach to managing its currency, and there's a lot of risk that their troubles worsen dramatically.

Rig count for US is down over 50% from a year ago. Actual oil demand in the last year has more or less not changed. What has very obviously caused the downward pressure from oil prices is the oversupply from the US and saudi battle, Iran coming into the picture, china growth slowdown again in the headlines (it never stopped slowing, it's just back to the forefront now from last august), yuan devaluation, and dollar strength. It's very simple actually.

No one will disagree with you that oil isn't going up any time soon. A monkey could figure that out. Again people are just freaking out about China more to the way they react to issues not so much of the issue itself. Therefor this causes the issue to get blown out of proportion that there is some smoking gun out there ready to destroy the entire world economy.

The smart money isn't focused on china. The smart money is focusing on the oil companies debt. Because if they default on their debt from too low of an oil price from a SUPPLY GLUT not a demand decrease then problems will happen.

If there was a real demand decrease u would see it in the fundamental data. But the data shows hardly any change.
Old 01-13-2016 | 03:34 PM
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Originally Posted by jem7v
If there was a real demand decrease u would see it in the fundamental data. But the data shows hardly any change.
Which is sort of a problem in itself. See, gasoline prices are WAY down for most parts of the country (us folks in CA don't get a discount for some reason). So with lower prices that should translate to higher demand and usage, right? Well it hasn't, as you said demand for gasoline/oil has stayed relatively flat so the lack of an increase in a demand for gasoline/oil with significantly lower prices is a bit troubling.
Old 01-13-2016 | 03:36 PM
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Originally Posted by lumber
So it's not only the stealerships hoarding the cars and asking a premium that you have a problem with. It's anyone who is selling one for more than they paid for it...
C'mon Martin
I'm curious to see what you list your rs for the day that you sell it...
I'm fine with paying over MSRP, but it's not going to be $75k over or $100k over or more and it won't be for a car with options that have either no or negative value for me (PCCBs, front lift, sat radio, etc).

As for my unicorn, doubtful that you'll see it up for sale anytime soon.
Old 01-13-2016 | 03:40 PM
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Originally Posted by Archimedes
You are aware of the concept of asking more for a car than you are actually willing to take for it post negotiation, right?

If you want $75k, you ask $100k, not $75k.
I get that, but when you have Ebay auctions that have no reserve prices do fine price discovery...like the Lava RS that sold for $285k or $75k over. Honestly, if that was a low option UV car I might have bought it at $75k over but it wasn't...had too many options that I didn't want and I would never buy a Lava RS (don't like the color).

Of course with a traditional sale listing you'll ask more so that you have room to negotiate down. But how much room to move down have stealers like Auto Gallery given themselves asking $150k over?
Old 01-13-2016 | 03:52 PM
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Originally Posted by jem7v
Rig count for US is down over 50% from a year ago. Actual oil demand in the last year has more or less not changed. What has very obviously caused the downward pressure from oil prices is the oversupply from the US and saudi battle, Iran coming into the picture, china growth slowdown again in the headlines (it never stopped slowing, it's just back to the forefront now from last august), yuan devaluation, and dollar strength. It's very simple actually.

No one will disagree with you that oil isn't going up any time soon. A monkey could figure that out. Again people are just freaking out about China more to the way they react to issues not so much of the issue itself. Therefor this causes the issue to get blown out of proportion that there is some smoking gun out there ready to destroy the entire world economy.
If there was a real demand decrease u would see it in the fundamental data. But the data shows hardly any change.
You're playing semantics. Rig count declines aren't bankruptcies and 75 percent of the shale producers have not gone bankrupt.

And growth in global oil demand has weakened considerably. Here's a quote straight from an article about the IEA's perspectives:

Since mid-2014, however, things have shifted. US oil production is still rising upward. Russia, Iraq, and Canada keep producing more oil too. Just as important, global oil demand has weakened unexpectedly, especially as economic growth in China and Europe have been slowing down. OPEC also played a role: at one point in November, onlookers thought that Saudi Arabia might cut back on its production to prop up prices. But the Saudis don't want to lose market share and have signaled that they won't make any cuts for the time being.

End result? Oil traders expect that the supply of oil will remain plentiful for the foreseeable future, while demand will remain weak — which is exactly what that IEA chart shows. And, since the price of oil is determined by contracts for future delivery, these expectations for the future matter a lot. That's why oil prices keep falling.


The IEA currently believes oil has peaked and demand will actually slow in 2016.

Forgetting oil, China is a bigger issue IMO. I'm with RBS when it comes to investing right now. Sell it all.
Old 01-13-2016 | 03:57 PM
  #87  
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Originally Posted by usctrojanGT3
I get that, but when you have Ebay auctions that have no reserve prices do fine price discovery...like the Lava RS that sold for $285k or $75k over. Honestly, if that was a low option UV car I might have bought it at $75k over but it wasn't...had too many options that I didn't want and I would never buy a Lava RS (don't like the color).

Of course with a traditional sale listing you'll ask more so that you have room to negotiate down. But how much room to move down have stealers like Auto Gallery given themselves asking $150k over?
What we do know is that an RS, in a kinda undesirable (or at least niche) build configuration, sold for $75k over. In a day.

And we know there's a lot of uncertainty surrounding whether there will be any more RS allocations and/or whether this might possibly be the last of the great NA GT cars.

I'd say that adds up to sitting on them with a high ask for now, particularly given the fact that these dealers know they could dump them for what they've got in them anytime they want, even if things melt down. I agree with you that that the $150k+ asks are likely nuts (unless those dealers know something we don't), but if I had one, I'd probably be at $100k over ask, at least for a few months.
Old 01-13-2016 | 04:07 PM
  #88  
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Originally Posted by Archimedes
You're playing semantics. Rig count declines aren't bankruptcies and 75 percent of the shale producers have not gone bankrupt.

And growth in global oil demand has weakened considerably. Here's a quote straight from an article about the IEA's perspectives:

Since mid-2014, however, things have shifted. US oil production is still rising upward. Russia, Iraq, and Canada keep producing more oil too. Just as important, global oil demand has weakened unexpectedly, especially as economic growth in China and Europe have been slowing down. OPEC also played a role: at one point in November, onlookers thought that Saudi Arabia might cut back on its production to prop up prices. But the Saudis don't want to lose market share and have signaled that they won't make any cuts for the time being.

End result? Oil traders expect that the supply of oil will remain plentiful for the foreseeable future, while demand will remain weak — which is exactly what that IEA chart shows. And, since the price of oil is determined by contracts for future delivery, these expectations for the future matter a lot. That's why oil prices keep falling.


The IEA currently believes oil has peaked and demand will actually slow in 2016.

Forgetting oil, China is a bigger issue IMO. I'm with RBS when it comes to investing right now. Sell it all.
Why sell it all? At that point owning the VIX is best.

Here is a fun article http://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/13/heres...oils-fall.html about oil demand. "Getting a grasp on what's really going on with some of these weekly numbers can be difficult, but ultimately the way we look at it is demand growth has been pretty resilient over the last 12 months, and we expect that to continue through most of 2016." Scott Hanold, an oil analyst at RBC Capital Markets, told CNBC's "Squawk on the Street" on Wednesday. "Now the key here is to see some producer reaction to these low prices, and ultimately we've seen some, but not enough."

Don't put much stock in these claims. You'll get burned.
Old 01-13-2016 | 04:13 PM
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Martin, Not all RS's are 200K MSRP. Mine has full leather etc and MSRP was 188K.
Old 01-13-2016 | 04:15 PM
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I don't see this 991 GT3RS coming down lower than $75K over MSRP. In two months the 911R will be announced and same deal, pricing will go through the roof!

With limited and low production cars, Market Pricing, becomes inevitable.

Drive safe,
GT3RS-Fan1


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