Ditto to Nate and Dave. I am not a climate denier, I love stepping on the right pedal of a Tesla, and I find the 928s to be way too loud. But with that said:

The auto industry is slow to move on new technology for a lot of very good reasons.

Gas power is here for quite a while because right now it's the most efficient way to store, distribute ,and expend energy. (If you disagree, try driving a Tesla from San Jose to Las Vegas and back.) You will not find a tank, ship, bulldozer, airplane, or snowmobile that runs on batteries either, for the same reason.

The automakers are having an electrification crisis, having retooled for a product that nobody wanted. Hybrids are in many ways a great solution, but they of course need gas, and they don't perform at peak while charging.

As for self-driving, a lot of autonomous makers have learned the hard way that, while machines can do a lot of tasks, people are still better at the edge. The Uber fatality was a turning point for the auto industry, and the focus is now on ADAS (autonomous driver assistance systems) vs. AD. So we'll still have regular roads for a while.

Finally, on the value question: If you are in it for the money you may have made some poor car choices. And demographics are not your friend - I suspect the boomer generation represents peak car love. But all three are fantastic drivers' cars and at least one guy envies you. That must be worth something!

 

I bought cars because I liked them ,not to make money. My attitude changes when I drive them. I like them and enjoy keeping them up.

 

I've wondered this same thing about manual transmissions. In the US, only 1.1% of the vehicles sold last year had manual transmissions. I know I'm tugging on Roger's heart strings, but will be interesting in the years to come if those with manual gear boxes are stuck with a car that few know how to drive. The real irony will be if they sell for less than auto-trans .

Reference
https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a2...-transmission/

 

Sure, and I also have a 1958 rotary phone in my rec-room that still makes and takes phone calls perfectly. I doubt anyone on this forum will live to see the day where we can't drive a "dumb" car on public roads. Most modern cars will now last 20 years easily. If I buy a new $50K car today, do you think I'll be forced to throw it away because smart car technology has advanced?

We all get bored with hobbies and it sounds like you may be done with cars. I don't see the distant future of autonomous cars as a reason to leave a car hobby that someone still enjoys and is passionate about.

 

The past is today.

https://www.jstor.org/stable/40275381?seq=1

We still have horses.

 

Interesting series of posts you have here:

It sounds like you are having an 'existential automotive crises' here.

You either like driving them or you don't.

You either like owning them (if, perhaps, for no other reason than to gaze at them fondly) or you don't.

If you like owning and/or driving them, then consider the juxtaposition of the value of your enjoyment against the cost of keeping them to drive or gaze at.

If you like neither driving them no owning them, then they are just taking up physical and mental space.

 

I am so using this, somewhere, somehow, in a conversation.

We can't forget that fossil fuels, possibly the wealthiest industry for about 100 years now, will not go down without a fight. Just when EVs start to ramp up, count on a fire sale (pun intended) of dinosaur fuels for quite some time as the last gasp (pun intended) of the industry.

 

Unfortunately, ACC didn't take into account 21st Century marketing. We could compose a corollary:


Any mundane, but poorly understood technology can be marketed as near-magical by simply renaming it.

 

I don't even bother renaming it. Chain some thermo calcs, some flow calcs, and some weather data and you too can model power plants well enough to keep good wine in the fridge. It's all PFM to all but a few. Modeling the human component is tougher, so humans become the problem and the solution all at once. AD cars will suffer the same way for quite a while.

We are all experts. How many of us would know which way to move the advance and mixture levers on a brass car, or even a "modern" Model T? Mundane tasks like engine and transmission management have been taken off the driver's plate. Progress will look like the gradual evolution of systems that demand driver attention. Only two pedals now, and simple things like adaptive cruise are getting better all the time. Highway driving has everybody pretty much going in the same direction. Airplane drivers are encouraged to engage auto flight systems early, and many modern planes will land themselves given the chance. When a 737MAX angle-of-attack sensor gives a poor reading, I still want the driver to know the right thing to do. At a big power project a few years ago, the owner's plant manager listened to a narrative of all the things my software watches, and what the responses are to each change in a parameter or a failure. His response: My operators should be able to do all that! True. But will they do exactly the right thing every time, without fail, and respond to everything at the right time? I let him drive a steam temperature control valve for a "calibration" of an steam flow equation, and watched him sweat for ten minutes trying to get a stable outlet temp. Then put it in auto mode and watched it smoothly level out to the right temp. Auto-drive is the same way. Everything is fine while everything is fine. It's the thirty seconds of terror every once in a while that reminds us that we really need to pay attention.

Many of us enjoy "driving", without a serious clue how much help we already get. And we'll be getting more.

 

Interesting thread, and certainly something we should all be considering. A couple of points:

I would expect human driven cars will go the way of the horse, no longer daily transportation, but simply a hobby. Because of that we’ll see trends like more motorsport resorts or clubs where you “drive” you human driven car on a “closed” course so we can’t screw up autonomy. In addition, the odd and unique will flourish here so folks can stand out at the “club.” Personally I think the “open” road driving ban is 25+ years way, simply due to politics and the legal system.

What will be interesting is the mix between autonomy and human. Do we get to a point where 80% of the cars are autonomous and you can merge on the highway without regard? IE all the autonomous cars will avoid you no matter what? Likely not, we’ll have a series of segregated highway where you “pilot” the car to the highway then autonomy takes over for the longer journey.

The reality is this transformation takes a ton of money and there will be much angst about the fact that low income folks can’t afford the autonomous hardware, so can the government really take away their beaters? Obviously we could see public or a subsidized type of uber, but this is still a cost that has to be burdened somewhere.

Meanwhile, I think I’ll just keep tinkering with my german “horses!”

 

3:0
Rush warned us about a motor law years ago

 

So what's the first IC engine to be banned? My guess... diesel school busses. That's the start and they always start with the kids.
http://electricschoolbuscampaign.org...t-test-scores/


Rush... Yes, they did. Rest In Peace Neal Peart. I remember when that song was a new release back in the early 80's and it just seemed like the ramblings of a mad man to me then. 40 years later, its seems bang on to me. The only thing not bang on is the idea of the gleaming alloy air car being "2 lanes wide". Other than that, its prophetic and every-time I find myself in the Berkshires I cant help think of that song becasue of it's small farms, great roads with mountains and Valleys. Lots of covered 1 lane bridges too.

 

Hovercraft 2 lanes wide

 

Disjointed remarks:

After I first drove a Tesla Model 3, all my existing cars suddenly seemed old, including the 2017. The older ones became even more vintage, which is good if you like vintage cars. Right?

I use the Model 3's autopilot, but it embarrasses me: it drives like a teenager who's just gotten his learners permit, on his first drive. I'm certain it could be better if Musk wanted it to be better; perhaps he's a bad driver. I do not use the advanced "navigate on autopilot", which will change lanes and take exits for you - that gets real embarrassing. On the other hand, I am becoming a less sophisticated driver as time goes on...

Today I had to maneuver around fallen trees and power lines, in snow. Even through some traffic lights that were out. Ah, snow - you find an incredible variety in the properties of snow, and it's arrangement on roads. You can go a lot faster when there are two narrow patches of pavement. On a two lane road, there might be three....

I've come to realize the deepest and most sophisticated artificial neural networks - while magical in some respects - are not particularly intelligent. They have to be led through the nose in the training process, It seems like a brute force kind of thing. Intelligence means you "get it" quickly. A synonym is indeed "quick".

Some were genuinely on the bleeding edge of EV adoption. My EV is fully practical, but I guess I'm still leading edge in terms of EV sales percentage. I got an Apple iPod on the very first day they came out, and was surprised few others did for many years. Then BOOM! and a morph into the iPhone. Will it be like that? Can't be - battery production will be sharply limited, not to mention remote charging facilities. Though hurray! A Tesla V3 Supercharger has been installed right here in Chestertown.

It's all very interesting, though the folks that dislike change sure can get nasty about it. I see automobiles as - among other things - triumphs of engineering. New engineering. But old engineering is to be appreciated as well.

 

I'm only speaking for Belgium now , but "oldtimers" are declining and not EV related ….a big change now from 2020 is that all oldtimers must pass inspection, just as a new car , and all must be oem !
It used to be just a primitive inspection as check brakes and lights are working .
We all know many parts are NLA... so that is already a serious problem to be "oem" . Or the ridiculous high prices for the last remaining parts. ( + $2000 for a S4 MAF compared to a average $200 one ? )
After years , many oldtimers were repaired/modified with aftermarket parts …. and now not even worth to rebuild to oem ! ( engine swaps , suspension , brakes… ) One can buy a $10k car ,need $10k to pass inspection but it stays a $10k car . From now on , one can have expensive "surprizes" every year when "they" think something isn't "correct" …. stress due owning one. Nobody will be happy to buy a oem exhaust to replace a ,even better , aftermarket one … not to speak of prices !

Also more and more city's forbid oldtimers.... that's not a problem for me , i don't go there , but will be for many who use a cheap oldtimer for cheap transport , in fact no , those sure won't pass inspection anymore .
As long as i can and are "allowed" , i will enjoy my cars , but afraid for those with a big collection…. luck, shipping has become common, so the market is "worldwide" ….