Air Cooled Bubble?
#601
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Last year at Montery they tried to sell us a bunch of marginal cars.
It should be interesting this year. Has the quality of the auction cars at Monterey improved?
Richard Newton
Climate Control for Your Garage
It should be interesting this year. Has the quality of the auction cars at Monterey improved?
Richard Newton
Climate Control for Your Garage
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#602
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similar to some others on this thread . I've got more cars than I have time or reason to drive.
Discussing with the boss the possibility of selling the '86 3.2 coupe in the spring.
She argues that it's not depreciating so what's the rush?
I have a different theory - "the 30 year rule"
People who lust after hot cars when they're 14-22 years old have the money to live their dream 30 years later. This contributes significantly to demand IMHO.
The old 911s will always be a unique and awesome driving experience but the buyer pool may diminish as the boomers age out.
Hell, we went to a fancy wedding in our stick VW and we had to park the car ourselves because the "stick" valet was off that day.
Discussing with the boss the possibility of selling the '86 3.2 coupe in the spring.
She argues that it's not depreciating so what's the rush?
I have a different theory - "the 30 year rule"
People who lust after hot cars when they're 14-22 years old have the money to live their dream 30 years later. This contributes significantly to demand IMHO.
The old 911s will always be a unique and awesome driving experience but the buyer pool may diminish as the boomers age out.
Hell, we went to a fancy wedding in our stick VW and we had to park the car ourselves because the "stick" valet was off that day.
#603
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Here's one that got no money at Mecum. It's a really rough 1972.
btw - If you're trying to sell an early 911 it might not be a good idea have your trash cans in the image. Just Say'n.
Richard Newton
Car Tech Stuff
btw - If you're trying to sell an early 911 it might not be a good idea have your trash cans in the image. Just Say'n.
Richard Newton
Car Tech Stuff
#605
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Reeves Callaway taught me about the 20-year rule decades ago. the 30-year rule is a little safer. Maybe.
Car values often resemble a normal curve. They rise for a while and then they decline. We've seen this curve with the Model A, the Tri 5 Chevys and the muscle cars. Now we're starting to see it with the 356 Porsche.
People always want to buy the car they couldn't afford when they were in high school.
There are a few outliers though. Cobras and Ferraris seem to be immune to this curve. So far.
Richard Newton
Car values often resemble a normal curve. They rise for a while and then they decline. We've seen this curve with the Model A, the Tri 5 Chevys and the muscle cars. Now we're starting to see it with the 356 Porsche.
People always want to buy the car they couldn't afford when they were in high school.
There are a few outliers though. Cobras and Ferraris seem to be immune to this curve. So far.
Richard Newton
#606
Instructor
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Spoke to an owner of a small dealership in Atlanta that sells a lot of Porsche as well as other classics. The 911s that are under $50k sell fairly quick, the $50-150k have slowed dramatically. That would seem obvious but he claims that was not an issue a year or so ago.
#607
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30 year rule is nonsense, and nothing more than curve fitting based on a single anecdote of muscle cars.
How does the 30 year rule explain that in the Porsche world, the 356, long hoods, middies, SCs, Carreras, 964, 993 ....all spiked and peaked at the same time?
Those cars cover 1950s, 60s, 70s, 80s, and 90s. That's a FIFTY year spread that peaked at the same time around 2015...
If the 356s peaked in this most recent surge, that's almost 60 years after it was made. Not 20. Not 30. 60.
Consider a '57 Chevy and a '57 Speedster. They have totally divergent price graphs, yet are from the same year.
It's a lot more nuanced than some facile "When people are 45, they buy their teen dream car"
If that was the case, the 356 buyers would be 80 years old.
How does the 30 year rule explain that in the Porsche world, the 356, long hoods, middies, SCs, Carreras, 964, 993 ....all spiked and peaked at the same time?
Those cars cover 1950s, 60s, 70s, 80s, and 90s. That's a FIFTY year spread that peaked at the same time around 2015...
If the 356s peaked in this most recent surge, that's almost 60 years after it was made. Not 20. Not 30. 60.
Consider a '57 Chevy and a '57 Speedster. They have totally divergent price graphs, yet are from the same year.
It's a lot more nuanced than some facile "When people are 45, they buy their teen dream car"
If that was the case, the 356 buyers would be 80 years old.
Last edited by sugarwood; 08-21-2016 at 12:47 PM.
#608
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In fact, even the muscle car anecdote is wrong.
A Hemi Cuda hits peak value in 2015 at $3mm.
That is a full 45 years after it was made.
Who bought it? It could be someone aged 45, 55, 65, or even 75.
The simple reality is that someone may buy a vintage "teen dream" at ANY age from 30 until 70, which covers 40 years.
A Hemi Cuda hits peak value in 2015 at $3mm.
That is a full 45 years after it was made.
Who bought it? It could be someone aged 45, 55, 65, or even 75.
The simple reality is that someone may buy a vintage "teen dream" at ANY age from 30 until 70, which covers 40 years.
Last edited by sugarwood; 08-21-2016 at 12:48 PM.
#609
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"If that was the case, the 356 buyers would be 80 years old."
Have you been to a 356 Registry gathering lately?![Smilie](https://rennlist.com/forums/images/smilies/smile.gif)
Richard Newton
Historical Racing Images
Have you been to a 356 Registry gathering lately?
![Smilie](https://rennlist.com/forums/images/smilies/smile.gif)
Richard Newton
Historical Racing Images
#610
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356s? If they came down in price, I'd buy one in a heartbeat, and I was born in the '70s.
#612
Rennlist Member
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i'll say it again:
you buy car 20-30, all of a sudden its "worth" 50-60.
Does that 20-30k mean a life changing event for most porsche owners
probably not
unless your car is a very low (sub 20k) mile bubble wrapper, just enjoy the damn thing!!!!
Low mile rare and collector cars are a different beast completely. So unless your car has an RS, RSA, Speedster, slope/slant nose, turbos, etc in the name... it's not a rare car.
The market will always be there for the low mile rare cars. everything else is just rising along with, and sure, may pop, but most of us will gladly burn that $20-30k or whatever to drive one of these things on a regular basis.
you buy car 20-30, all of a sudden its "worth" 50-60.
Does that 20-30k mean a life changing event for most porsche owners
probably not
unless your car is a very low (sub 20k) mile bubble wrapper, just enjoy the damn thing!!!!
Low mile rare and collector cars are a different beast completely. So unless your car has an RS, RSA, Speedster, slope/slant nose, turbos, etc in the name... it's not a rare car.
The market will always be there for the low mile rare cars. everything else is just rising along with, and sure, may pop, but most of us will gladly burn that $20-30k or whatever to drive one of these things on a regular basis.
#613
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Peter's latest rant in Autoextremist is most interesting. He is going off on the auction mania that has captured our hobby.
"The calculated feeding frenzy manufactured by the auto auction houses has decimated the fundamental enthusiasm that used to define car enthusiasts of all stripes. … The whole auto auction game has graduated from being merely tedious to a threat to car enthusiasm itself.
It’s a circus of artificial enthusiasm marked by overheated auction hucksters in cahoots with the blatant sycophants at the TV networks . . ."
Richard Newton
"The calculated feeding frenzy manufactured by the auto auction houses has decimated the fundamental enthusiasm that used to define car enthusiasts of all stripes. … The whole auto auction game has graduated from being merely tedious to a threat to car enthusiasm itself.
It’s a circus of artificial enthusiasm marked by overheated auction hucksters in cahoots with the blatant sycophants at the TV networks . . ."
Richard Newton
Maybe the exotics culture is threatened, but car culture at large? Give me a break.
#615
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RS = rare and expensive (none imported into US adds cache)
Speedster = 356, 3.2, 964; all unique to themselves
RSA = easily the most overrated of the group. in fact if you compare production numbers of MY93-94 C2 manual coupes, there are less of these than there are RSA's here in the US. With the only real difference being a manual steering rack in the RSA, the premium is totally unwarranted in my opinion. FWIW I've owned a RSA (paid $19k for it) and now own a MY93 C2 manual coupe.
Speedster = 356, 3.2, 964; all unique to themselves
RSA = easily the most overrated of the group. in fact if you compare production numbers of MY93-94 C2 manual coupes, there are less of these than there are RSA's here in the US. With the only real difference being a manual steering rack in the RSA, the premium is totally unwarranted in my opinion. FWIW I've owned a RSA (paid $19k for it) and now own a MY93 C2 manual coupe.