hfm

I searched this forum and found nothing on the subject of battery replacement cost. I also checked the subject matter relative to Tesla and found these:

https://forums.tesla.com/forum/forum...placement-cost

https://forums.tesla.com/forum/forum...-replacement-0

https://www.plugincars.com/tesla-mod...ks-125571.html

https://www.quora.com/How-many-Tesla...ry-replacement

https://electrek.co/2018/07/17/tesla...miles-3-years/

I generally keep my vehicles long term and, when I decide to get one of these, I'd like to know what to expect to have to pay for a battery replacement. It isn't clear to me whether Tesla is going to charge $12k or more likely $45k for a battery replacement, but has anyone heard anything from Porsche about this issue? Assuming Porsche will charge a premium for the replacement, that they will charge more than Tesla, are we going to be looking at $50k plus for a battery replacement 10 or 20 years down the road? I would expect the cost to go down as the technology improves but, it could be that the car could become obsolete and that new battery technology will never be retrofitted meaning costs remain expensive.

Dan (probably shouldn't care but, could drive more than 200k miles and wants to know what to expect)

Brett - 1996 C4

I just read a piece on the Audi e-tron SUV and that said that Audi has the capability of replacing battery sub-packs/cells, rather than the whole thing. I wouldn't be surprised if VW Group is sourcing their batteries for all brands, so Porsche might have the same option. That might not matter if you keep it a long time and all the cells lose capacity.

manitou202

It's too difficult to predict the cost 10-20 years down the road. I'm sure it will be way lower the $45k. Battery costs are dropping quickly and in 10-20 years there could be many options available. From a low cost replacement pack similar to the original, to a new longer range pack based on better technology, aftermarket battery packs, or even a used battery pack out of a recently wrecked Taycan.

In addition the old pack you would be trading in would probably be worth something due to the valuable materials.

Hansel

In Europe BMW will replace the i3 battery with the newer longer range battery for something on the order of $10k. Its not available in the US.
I've seen whole i3 battery packs on ebay for $4k or so though.

Its a small battery but thats also the cost from BMW. I can't imagine things are going to get more expensive in the future as more options become available.

whiz944

In California, manufacturers are required to offer a 10 year/150,000 mile warranty on the traction battery. After that, who knows. It is anyones guess.

Our 2016 Chevy Volt has 42,000 miles on it and is often charged twice a day. It has a 18.5 kWh (a little over 14 kWh usable) battery pack with extensive liquid thermal management. I estimate it has degraded maybe 1-2% from new. At that rate, I suspect the pack will last the life of the car. I'd expect cars with comparable thermal management (e.g., not Leafs) and larger battery capacity could do the same or even better. It will be fun to see what VAG comes up with by comparison.

cluster_fsck

Just out of curiosity, for those considering getting a Taycan, would you buy or lease? I have no idea how many Porsche owners lease versus buy their cars.

earl pottinger

Remember, there is a market for those used batteries, the sale of the old battery will cover a good percentage of the new battery costs.

EvilTed

Somewhere in the middle. I'd probably use a Personal Contract Purchase (Possibly only a UK thing?) whereby you make a monthly payment which covers the depreciation over the term + Interest. At the end of the term you either pay the set residual value and own the car or you simply give the car back with no further payment.

I'd only do this because it means the finance co / Porsche are taking the risk on heavier depreciation than expected. As this technology is moving so fast it's quite possible that something could happen in the term (3 or 4 years) which will mean your Porsche is obsolete or last gen tech. That's going to hit the second hand value so in this case you'd simply give the car back, avoiding owning a car with a very low second hand value. If the market stays buoyant and the set final payment is higher than market value you can choose to own the car at that point.
Obviously the penalty you are paying is the interest on the depreciation which can outweigh the benefit. Depending what that interest cost is I may choose to buy outright.

minthral

MaxLTV

With the current battery longevity developments, replacing the battery is similar to replacing the engine in a ICE car - very remote prospect with most cars being scrapped before that becomes necessary. Also, batteries get better and cheaper over time, so in 15+ years this will be relevant, the replacement battery will cost a fraction, and there will likely be cheap non-OEM versions as well (it's incomparably easier to make a non-oem battery than a non-oem ICE engine). So I would not worry about battery replacement much.

Still, depreciation on electric cars may be higher than on ICE cars just because the tech cycle on them is so new that noticeably better options are coming out rather quickly, pushing the value of older tech down. That does not worry me, but for anyone viewing an electric car as a replacement for gold bars (like some GT3 buyers ;-)) that would be an issue.

daveo4porsche

the only data we have to date regarding the longevity of LiON batteries and various chemistries is as follows:

1. Tesla Roadsters - 2008 model year - battery loss worse case is about 15% after 100,000 miles - many cars are far less - battery still works - https://www.plugincars.com/tesla-roa...es-127733.html
2. Tesla Model S - 2012 - battery loss worse case is about 10% after 200,000 mile, many cars are far less - battery still works - https://steinbuch.wordpress.com/2015...radation-data/ - vast majority as of 2018 are less than 5% overall capacity loss
3. Hybrids - with various size batteries - nothing that is excessive or debilitating - no significant data showing major capacity loss beyond single digits
4. 2011 Nissan Leaf - 60% battery is not uncommon and battery replacement in hte US is about $7500 (not worth it) - in Japan refurbished batteries are a $2150 replacement (more manageable)

the difference between the Leaf and all the others is active thermal management (both heating and cooling the battery as necessary). We are still early in this whole EV thing, but we are now starting to have years of data, and millions of miles driven as a fleet, and to date the data in my opinion pretty clearly shows that a properly managed LiON battery has very few longevity issues. I'm awaiting more data, but nothing I've seen to date (other than the Leaf) has me concerned.

Also I still bristle at the concept of "having to replace the battery". What criteria or condition are you referring to that would "force" you to replace the battery. Yes LiON batteries degrade in terms of total charge capacity, but they don't seem to fail in great numbers. 10 years out you may have lost 10% total charge capacity - probably less - which means your 310 mile car is now a 280 mile car. So the _ONLY_ reason to replace the battery is if that 30 mile range loss is harshing your buzz on a daily basis and we already know the use case for EV and cars in general is that 98% of the daily work load is less than 70 mile's driven. So the car still functions and still works, but you can't push it to it's optimal range, and if you are trying to do so you'll need to charge slightly more often (again not a big deal if you're charging at home over night).

I have a few more thoughts that for me put this in context.

1. It's doubtful you ever used the full range of your battery other than a few times - so as long as it meets your typical daily needs there is nothing forcing a battery replacement
2. Cost of battery replacement is in line with any existing ICE car expense at the 100's of thousands of miles type of major service
3. You've spent less on maintaining and fueling an EV than you would on an ICE with equivalent miles so you're probably actually ahead of the game
4. there is virtually no data that indicates batteries "fail" outright - they continue to work in a reduced capacity in terms of total kWh stored in a given charge cycle
5. the biggest loss of capacity is in the first few years, the trend line's slope then becomes much more favorable
6. the battery you're replacing is a high value component and can be reused for other purposes (off grid power storage in commerical/home applications) - it's a high value item
7. even with reduced range in a few years there will be more fast charging infrastructure, so if you do need to drive distance it will probably be easier to charge the battery and it might add 10-20 minutes to your over all trip that you take infrequently (2 charging stops vs. 1 or 3 stops vs. 2 for a given long distance drive)
8. _IF_ you decide to replace the battery because you really really want that 10% range back, you are very very likely to get a better battery for your expense. Battery tech is processing steadily year over year and it's highly likely you will receive a high capacity battery with better chemistry and characteristic's than the battery you replaced breathing new life into the car. So you might not do it for the range you've lost but rather than benefit you'll gain with a improved battery vs. the battery the day you've bought the car.
9. Using refurbished batteries greatly changes the cost equation on replacement and is very likely to become more common as volume grows and experience increases - replacement costs are likely to come down substantially and will make this even less of an issue.

the only case for replacing a Lion battery based on data is:

1. you own a Nissan Leaf - my apologies for multiple reasons beyond the battery, but yes the battery is one of them
2. you are using 90-95% of the car's original range capacity multiple times a week - and fast charging during the day is not an option - I'll argue this is very very uncommon - and if this is your use case EV's are not quite ready for you as a customer - keep your ICE car for the time being.

conclusion

1. don't buy a Nissan Leaf, and even with the current leaf Nissan has it's head up it's *** - you MUST thermally manage LiON batteries for longevity
2. proper thermally managed LiON battery life is at least as good as the typical life span of any car - replacement cost is expensive but inline with any sort of major component cost you'd encounter from a ICE car…
3. there is no data indicating outright failure is a common (or even rare) occurrence - rather the batteries continue to operate at reduced capacities for quite some time - but if their capacity meet/exceed your daily needs battery replacement is un-necessary.

basically for me worrying about the battery is a high visibility non-issue that people like to focus on but honestly the data doesn't support that it's a major concern or an insurmountable problem - but time will tell.

I will NOT buy an EV with LiON battery that does not have active thermal management - Nissan has proven this to be a fool hardy approach.

whiz944

Well... the current eGolf and some others don't have a lot of thermal management either. But due to differences in chemistry and implementation, they don't seem to have near the reputation of degradation problems that Nissan has had.

Implementations of thermal management, or not, seem to vary all over the place. IMO, GM and Tesla have done the best job so far with their extensive per-cell liquid cooling/heating system. The little Fiat 500e also seems to fall into this category. Some (e.g., BMW, Mitsubishi) are piping refrigerant into the pack and using either cold plates or blowing cool air around inside it. Some (e.g., Ford, Toyota) draw cabin air and circulate it around the pack. And some don't have any at all. Lots of variations, with varying degrees of success, and definitely among the things to look for 'under the hood' when considering an EV.

hfm

Thank you for the informative responses. I'm going to go with "active thermal management" and, a replacement battery in 10 or 15 years will be a lot better and cheaper.

Dan (appreciates the time you spent in responding)

Nicole

You deserve a prize for this write-up. Thank you!

aCayenneFan

Do you have a citation for your statement? Not challenging you, but a reference to a .gov site would eliminate any confusion. Toyota offers the 10/year150,000 mile warranty, but others (Ford, Honda etc.) don't.