I would say 2030 for most pedestrian cars. ICE cars will hold out for longer. If you can’t sell the 300 mile range on EVs than you have a problem.

BMWs CEO has stated that he expects electrification to take much longer - approx 50:50 by 2050.

Most people will will choose to buy an EV when it makes economic sense to do so. This requires the establishment of infrastructure, servicing and crash and bash shops. That's how the real world operates.

Also people like to buy with confidence and buy a product that is reliable and cheap. That is why Toyota does so well.

In terms of Porsche - they may have a problem. Unfortunately EVs are much of a muchness, meaning they are similar, behave in a similar way and will need to differentiate more in terms of styling and products around different levels of autonomous driving.

Take note, how often great cars are defined by the response and sound of an engine whether it be a flat six or V12. EVs are transport devices. They will become more effective with time but nonetheless they are transport devices. Currently they don't move or speak to people other than in a narrow political context.

Surprised you dislike turbos and PDK so much - yet can square the circle with a model 3 which has torque and no gears. 😀

Addendum - I have a feeling he may mean half the models as opposed to half the sales - a very different proposition.

Flip side- my wife doesn’t. I was sizing her up for a Taycan but while she likes the Tesla she misses the involvement of an ICE. And she wants PDK... :-(

Agee with your “ middle” car comments. What will expedite adoption of EVs are the major city mandates that will bar ICE cars from city centers. Paris, Madrid, Athens and all of Norway have at least stated their intentions.

I, for one, would be thrilled to visit a city like Rome and hear how it sounded 100 years ago.

Where are all the batteries coming from and the copper materials? So perhaps the high end can pass the high price for limited materials but it will be a long time before Chevy can produce an affordable electric car for the masses.

I suspect the electric grid will take decades to be upgraded.

I just got back from copper and lithium mines in Chile. There are massive expansion plans underway with clear solution to eliminate bottlenecks and allow for exponential double digit growth for the forseable future. The grid issues are less challenging than you’d expect because charging is typically easy to time with periods of excess capacity.

The photovoltaic revolution is our most recent proxy- that shocked even experts with its exponential growth rates and speed of widespread adoption. Similar concerns were raised about materials availability, etc, but in the end 10 year forecasts were achieved in 5. EVs appear to be nearing a similar tipping point.

The grid not being able to handle EV charging to date is an anti-EV talking point for many many years but has very little evidence there is a actual problem. Please cite any reputable sources of this assertion. Most charging is done at home and daily commutes of 70 miles or less require 25 kWh or less of power overnight - well with in the range of household and residential power grid usage - especially if you do it while everyone is asleep and most homes are idle...

all these anti-EV comments keep assuming a static world, guess what humans solve problems, and we can overcome issues. Where in reality these “problems” are short term adjustments to a new reality that will be over come If it’s actually necessary to do so. Yes EV’s will require us to do thing differently - that’s kinda the point - cause what we are currently doing has some major downsides. And growing the grid isn’t really a bad thing, you would object to a more robust and capable grid that will benefit more than just EVs...yes infrastructure takes time, but at the end of the day it’s a huge upgrade and well worth it. But honestly I don’t think you need to worry as to if you can charge your EV, the grid will be fine, and if it’s not the power companies aren’t going to shrug their shoulders and just give up, it will be fixed, probably faster than anyone can imagine if it’s really an issue.

this is happening and pointing out anti-EV talking point short comings only serves the entrenched interests that are about to be displaced - all these “EV problems” are a really a poor excuse to justify that it might require change so we should keep burning fossil fuels. Just because the EV requires change doesn’t mean we should keep doing what we are doing - and there is cost to everything, so that’s a poor excuse also.

I’m in favor of developing new technologies. It employs and provides a lot of new and challenging work for engineers and scientists. But I’m skeptical of predictions about how quickly things will change. Usually the wheels of progress (and acceptance) turn slowly and I don’t see electrification of transportation any differently. Will be interesting to see how all this turns out.