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Tesla existential threat?

Old 03-08-2019, 07:43 PM
  #751  
acoste
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Originally Posted by doshc
"Here is my supercharger v2 vs v3 chart. 15-80% within 24 min feels unreal." That is indeed about a 50% reduction and is what ultimately matters to the customer.
So they managed to reach the 2014 BMW i3 charge speeds now with the V3.
Old 03-08-2019, 07:54 PM
  #752  
acoste
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Originally Posted by doshc
Tesla never said the battery was going have 250kw charge for the entire charge with 100% efficiency - something he believes Tesla is 'tricking' users with.
There is a difference between reporting charger power versus effective charge rate. 1000mph charge speed makes no sense if it is referenced at the charger. The charger doesn't go anywhere.
Honest companies, who report effective charge rate look worse even if they are better.
Old 03-08-2019, 07:56 PM
  #753  
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Originally Posted by doshc
Acoste is trying to dig up conspiracy theories with his very limited grasp of battery engineering and it's quite hilarious (and even a bit sad given he has so much idle time to do this).
Come up with your math and prove me that I'm wrong and that the power curve vs Soc and SoC vs time is in sync.
Old 03-08-2019, 08:08 PM
  #754  
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wow just wow - misses the point every time - that density level is epic.
Old 03-09-2019, 05:15 PM
  #755  
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Interesting read:

Tesla investors often lean on the company's green energy ideology as a reason to invest in its equity. The sooner investors understand that you can support
an all electric future with alternative energy, while still being critical of Tesla as an investment, the better. I lay out my case as to why and how investors must separate
the ideology from the investment. To say that there's an air of confusion between supporters of Tesla (TSLA) and critics of the company from an investment standpoint
would be a vast understatement. Sure, Tesla has its investment advocates, including people like ARK Invest's Cathie Wood, who believes that the stock is worth $4,000
per share, but many people who invest in Tesla stock appear to be ideologues first and investors second. Don’t get me wrong, there are plenty of qualified and intelligent
investors who are long the company. Take Fidelity, for instance, or even famed short seller Andrew Left of Citron Research. But it was evident through a recent conversation
that I had in the YouTube comments of one of my podcasts that people just don’t really understand why there are critics of this company to begin with, especially
if Musk’s vision is truly to change the world for the better.
A video of the two hosts, both ardent Tesla supporters, has been making its way around social media over the last couple of weeks. The video is of the two of them
being baffled that Tesla stock was falling following the news of the $35,000 Model 3 announcement. This was then followed by horrifically erroneous analysis and assertions
on how the capital markets work and why stocks move higher and lower. The clip shows the two hosts, seemingly devoid of knowledge on capital markets, resorting to a
conspiracy theory that oil companies must be shorting Tesla stock to explain why it is moving lower (play the lower video).
https://seekingalpha.com/article/424...ogy-investment

Old 03-09-2019, 05:31 PM
  #756  
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Originally Posted by Lorenfb
Excellent article. It matches my views almost completely.
Old 03-09-2019, 08:07 PM
  #757  
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Here my story...

1- Didn't even car about electric and was looking for a sporty comfortable commuter... Test drove BMW M3s, Ford Edge, Cayenne, Cadillac CTS V I was all over the map. Just having fun test driving and see what I really wanted

2- Test drove Tesla Model 3 and Model S on a whim because Tesla dealer was across the street from a dealership I was at...

3- ON the test drive of course I floored it... freaking exceptionally fast, and I have a GT3RS and that little ugly freaking Model 3 felt faster 0-60 acceleration... and probably felt faster being there was no noise. Then the overly -smiley Tesla Sales person said "you want to try the Self Driving" ... I said ok, assuming it was maybe a gimmick... we were in Santa Barbara on an winding pass, the freaking thing did it on a winding road.... then in the traffic and getting off the freeway, the self driving is stunning!

4- Stop, do not pass go, DONE. That was the Car head and shoulders above the rest... not because it better looking, or electric, or because it was cooler. In fact it's a little ugly to me, a bit bland, but the performance and what it does is awesome. The fact is it fit my needs so much better than anything else in that range. I drive 2 hours to LA every few days... hit traffic, and then I drive 15 miles of twisties to get home. So it has quickness, ok handling, killer self driving, can get me to LA and back on ONE charge and is smooth and quiet.

5- Do I care about sometimes questionable build quality... NOPE. Do I care about not perfect self driving , it blew me away and did more than I would let it or expect it to, so I was utterly impressed. Am I "into" Tesla, NOPE, they are a bit too friendly, smilley and Apple Store-ish for me to feel like they are genuine, Elon is kooky but appreciate what his vision is though I don't agree all the time. But the car did what it did exceptionally well, and I had been test driving for 3 weeks previous so I was getting a good vibe on cars out there.

I don't know why there appears to be Anger at Tesla, maybe I don't pay enough attention... but if anyone is bashing the cars they should test drive them if you haven't. It was an eye opener for me. Enough that I just bought one. And they we not on my radar....
Old 03-11-2019, 04:38 PM
  #758  
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Tesla Bjorn has compared these cars on the same route.
One more comment that he didn't say: due to the low temperature (more dense air) the air drag coefficient weights more in the results.
However their speed was relatively low, compared to German Autobahn speeds, this lessens the difference caused by air drag.

Audi Etron: width 1935mm, height 1616mm, air drag coeff 0.27
Telsa : width 1999mm, height 1684mm, air drag coeff 0.24
Jaguar I-pace: width 2011mm, height 1565mm, air drag coeff 0.29

Old 03-11-2019, 05:59 PM
  #759  
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Originally Posted by acoste
Tesla Bjorn has compared these cars on the same route.
One more comment that he didn't say: due to the low temperature (more dense air) the air drag coefficient weights more in the results.
However their speed was relatively low, compared to German Autobahn speeds, this lessens the difference caused by air drag.

Audi Etron: width 1935mm, height 1616mm, air drag coeff 0.27
Telsa : width 1999mm, height 1684mm, air drag coeff 0.24
Jaguar I-pace: width 2011mm, height 1565mm, air drag coeff 0.29
Of course the Model X is the least efficient model in the Tesla lineup. Both Model S and especially Model 3 would blow those numbers away. It will be fun to see how the upcoming Model Y launch compares - since it is based on Model 3 tech - rather than the older Model S tech.

The instrument cluster in the e-Tron looked completely different, and much cruder, than the one I saw in the e-Tron at the San Jose Auto Show last weekend.
Old 03-11-2019, 06:24 PM
  #760  
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Originally Posted by acoste
Tesla Bjorn has compared these cars on the same route.
One more comment that he didn't say: due to the low temperature (more dense air) the air drag coefficient weights more in the results.
However their speed was relatively low, compared to German Autobahn speeds, this lessens the difference caused by air drag.

Audi Etron: width 1935mm, height 1616mm, air drag coeff 0.27
Telsa : width 1999mm, height 1684mm, air drag coeff 0.24
Jaguar I-pace: width 2011mm, height 1565mm, air drag coeff 0.29

e-tron, I-Pace and Model X efficiency test
Within human habitable range air density is a linear function with temp and thus relatively small. Drag is a square of speed and the power to push a vehicle ends up being a cube of speed. Differences seen in Bjorn's video will be magnified ^2 for every mph speed increase.
Old 03-11-2019, 06:26 PM
  #761  
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Originally Posted by Antigravity
Here my story...

1- Didn't even car about electric and was looking for a sporty comfortable commuter... Test drove BMW M3s, Ford Edge, Cayenne, Cadillac CTS V I was all over the map. Just having fun test driving and see what I really wanted

2- Test drove Tesla Model 3 and Model S on a whim because Tesla dealer was across the street from a dealership I was at...

3- ON the test drive of course I floored it... freaking exceptionally fast, and I have a GT3RS and that little ugly freaking Model 3 felt faster 0-60 acceleration... and probably felt faster being there was no noise. Then the overly -smiley Tesla Sales person said "you want to try the Self Driving" ... I said ok, assuming it was maybe a gimmick... we were in Santa Barbara on an winding pass, the freaking thing did it on a winding road.... then in the traffic and getting off the freeway, the self driving is stunning!

4- Stop, do not pass go, DONE. That was the Car head and shoulders above the rest... not because it better looking, or electric, or because it was cooler. In fact it's a little ugly to me, a bit bland, but the performance and what it does is awesome. The fact is it fit my needs so much better than anything else in that range. I drive 2 hours to LA every few days... hit traffic, and then I drive 15 miles of twisties to get home. So it has quickness, ok handling, killer self driving, can get me to LA and back on ONE charge and is smooth and quiet.

5- Do I care about sometimes questionable build quality... NOPE. Do I care about not perfect self driving , it blew me away and did more than I would let it or expect it to, so I was utterly impressed. Am I "into" Tesla, NOPE, they are a bit too friendly, smilley and Apple Store-ish for me to feel like they are genuine, Elon is kooky but appreciate what his vision is though I don't agree all the time. But the car did what it did exceptionally well, and I had been test driving for 3 weeks previous so I was getting a good vibe on cars out there.

I don't know why there appears to be Anger at Tesla, maybe I don't pay enough attention... but if anyone is bashing the cars they should test drive them if you haven't. It was an eye opener for me. Enough that I just bought one. And they we not on my radar....


This is a pretty similar story to the Tesla owners I see at Porsche and BMW CCA events.
Old 03-11-2019, 07:29 PM
  #762  
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Originally Posted by whiz944
Of course the Model X is the least efficient model in the Tesla lineup. Both Model S and especially Model 3 would blow those numbers away. It will be fun to see how the upcoming Model Y launch compares - since it is based on Model 3 tech - rather than the older Model S tech.

The instrument cluster in the e-Tron looked completely different, and much cruder, than the one I saw in the e-Tron at the San Jose Auto Show last weekend.

Model 3 is efficient. S not so much. I-pace is taller by 12cm. I guess similar height to Model Y.

Originally Posted by doshc
Within human habitable range air density is a linear function with temp and thus relatively small. Drag is a square of speed and the power to push a vehicle ends up being a cube of speed. Differences seen in Bjorn's video will be magnified ^2 for every mph speed increase.
Square rule applies to very high speeds only where the constant and linear components are negligible compared to the square one.

For example the Model 3 LR consumption difference is only 33-38% for 56mph and 75mph (33% increase in speed). Square rule would suggest 79% increase. (based on Bjorn's test. Range: 260mi@75mph and 348mi@56mph)

Same for the models below for 56 and 75 mph
Ioniq: +42%
S: +32%
X: +34%
I-Pace (not on the list): +36%

Last edited by acoste; 03-11-2019 at 07:50 PM.
Old 03-12-2019, 02:03 AM
  #763  
acoste
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Originally Posted by doshc
This is a pretty similar story to the Tesla owners I see at Porsche and BMW CCA events.
I have the impression, you are paranoidroid. why are you hiding?
he had some clues about battery charging since he programmed them but didn't understand the details. That matches you. Use some related technical words but making some big mistakes that show the basics are not clear.
You copied his sentence which I realize now it was your own.

Last edited by acoste; 03-12-2019 at 03:03 PM.
Old 03-12-2019, 03:08 AM
  #764  
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Originally Posted by acoste
Square rule applies to very high speeds only where the constant and linear components are negligible compared to the square one.
Yes, it's true that while the force due to drag is a square of speed it's still in relation to some constant of other losses (tire friction, drivetrain losses, etc). The efficiency still matters a great deal to get the highest EPA rated mileage per kwh and the difference is because of Cd specifically is widened at higher speeds. You tried to make some point in the video about lower temps and denser air and I'm saying thats just not really significant once you're testing at faster speeds.

In any case not sure where you're going with all this. Perhaps missing the forest for the trees again - even a more efficient competitor for the vehicle class won't matter much without having a competitor to the supercharger network for customers as well.

Last edited by doshc; 03-12-2019 at 03:24 AM.
Old 03-12-2019, 03:16 AM
  #765  
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Originally Posted by acoste
I have the impression, you are paranoiddroid. why are you hiding?
he had some clues about battery charging since he programmed them but didn't understand the details. That matches you. Use some related technical words but making some big mistakes that show the basics are not clear.
You copied his sentence which I realize now it was your own.
I'm glad you're still keeping that tin-foil hat hot. Unfortunately it doesn't take a battery firmware engineer to see through attempts to manufacture random Tesla battery FUD. Last I checked even another poster here whose not a fan of Tesla mentioned the suggestion to take an electronics 101 class.

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