Tesla existential threat?
02-15-2019, 03:07 PM
#586
Burning Brakes
Uh huh. The i3 costs as much as the TM3 and is less car. Bolt EV costs a little less, but it has its issues as well. (Yes, I have driven both.) Moving up the food chain, the i-Pace looks like a nice first shot. But it seems to be taking some serious hits in software stability, efficiency/range, and charging - compared to a Model S or X. It will be interesting to see where it is at in a year or two.
Some EVs are compliance cars for sure. It is still questionable when EVs will be profitable in mass scale (like a Corolla) so no wonder they are hesitating.
They still have high manufacturing costs. I read in WSJ recently that they produce 6 cars per employee while BMW does 20 and GM does 44.
02-15-2019, 07:22 PM
#587
Burning Brakes
There is plenty of hubris in the automotive industry to go around.
If EVs still had a range of only 30 miles, and did 0-60 in 20+ seconds, we wouldn't be having this conversation. Certainly not on a Porsche forum! The Tesla Roadsters have only been on the road for 11 years, and the Model S for 7 years. However I, at least, think they've been very disruptive to the auto industry. That is quite remarkable - regardless of what one thinks of the founders of Tesla and Elon. (They have always striven to build cars that many people would actually aspire towards owning. NO 'weird-mobiles'.) We are on the leading edge of a huge transition. In another 10-20 years, most uses of ICE will be history.
Frankly I'm done with ICE. I could cite the multi-thousand dollar engine and transmission maintenance and repair bills I've had on various cars over the years. The intake manifold gaskets. The head gaskets. All manner of other seals, hoses, pipes, sensors, plugs, filters, etc. The timing belts on my 944... One I refused to pay was on my nice MB sedan which I had to get rid of last summer. MB, a company which has been building automotive engines almost since the Beginning of Time, failed to properly heat treat a gear in the engine. After only 80-100k miles, it became so worn that I was facing a $6K-14K repair bill - depending on who did the work. (There was actually a class action lawsuit against MB on this, but I was too late to qualify for relief.) My point is that ICE are being forced to provide ever more power and mileage from smaller and smaller displacements. Not to mention transmissions that are constantly shifting through eleventy-five gears to keep the ICE centered in the optimal BSFC area. They may work ok when new. But when something inevitably breaks, it is $,$$$ to repair. Bottom line for me - if the other auto manufacturers want my future business, they will have to produce a viable competitor to Tesla.
If EVs still had a range of only 30 miles, and did 0-60 in 20+ seconds, we wouldn't be having this conversation. Certainly not on a Porsche forum! The Tesla Roadsters have only been on the road for 11 years, and the Model S for 7 years. However I, at least, think they've been very disruptive to the auto industry. That is quite remarkable - regardless of what one thinks of the founders of Tesla and Elon. (They have always striven to build cars that many people would actually aspire towards owning. NO 'weird-mobiles'.) We are on the leading edge of a huge transition. In another 10-20 years, most uses of ICE will be history.
Frankly I'm done with ICE. I could cite the multi-thousand dollar engine and transmission maintenance and repair bills I've had on various cars over the years. The intake manifold gaskets. The head gaskets. All manner of other seals, hoses, pipes, sensors, plugs, filters, etc. The timing belts on my 944... One I refused to pay was on my nice MB sedan which I had to get rid of last summer. MB, a company which has been building automotive engines almost since the Beginning of Time, failed to properly heat treat a gear in the engine. After only 80-100k miles, it became so worn that I was facing a $6K-14K repair bill - depending on who did the work. (There was actually a class action lawsuit against MB on this, but I was too late to qualify for relief.) My point is that ICE are being forced to provide ever more power and mileage from smaller and smaller displacements. Not to mention transmissions that are constantly shifting through eleventy-five gears to keep the ICE centered in the optimal BSFC area. They may work ok when new. But when something inevitably breaks, it is $,$$$ to repair. Bottom line for me - if the other auto manufacturers want my future business, they will have to produce a viable competitor to Tesla.
02-15-2019, 09:08 PM
#588
So why are you contributing to a Porsche forum - are you aware of the reliability ratings of the various Tesla products?
They are poorly made at the price point. I don't think anyone disputes this.
Also keep in mind it's price and utility that sells cars. Not "tech". That's why the Corrola has been so successful for so long.
Disruptive products do that and rapidly replace the now defunct product. However EV penetration rates are low even with significant support via various subsidies. Yes I know there are local exceptions to this.
I am interested in a quality lightweight performance EV - perhaps something of that ilk will be available in 5 to 10 years. Note the weight of the E Zoe.
I am am not interested in the politics of global warming as it is a matter of geological, archaeological and historical fact and record that the earths climate has been warming since the end of the last ice age which finished around 10,000 years ago. This is something well understood by the broader scientific community.
The shrillness of the debate is a function of politics and ignorance.
As to Musk - he's a world class spruiker and that's it.
They are poorly made at the price point. I don't think anyone disputes this.
Also keep in mind it's price and utility that sells cars. Not "tech". That's why the Corrola has been so successful for so long.
Disruptive products do that and rapidly replace the now defunct product. However EV penetration rates are low even with significant support via various subsidies. Yes I know there are local exceptions to this.
I am interested in a quality lightweight performance EV - perhaps something of that ilk will be available in 5 to 10 years. Note the weight of the E Zoe.
I am am not interested in the politics of global warming as it is a matter of geological, archaeological and historical fact and record that the earths climate has been warming since the end of the last ice age which finished around 10,000 years ago. This is something well understood by the broader scientific community.
The shrillness of the debate is a function of politics and ignorance.
As to Musk - he's a world class spruiker and that's it.
Last edited by groundhog; 02-15-2019 at 09:41 PM.
02-15-2019, 09:09 PM
#589
Rennlist Member
great - @acoste finally admitted he has no balance or perspective - it's been that way since his first post.
02-15-2019, 09:40 PM
#590
^^^^^Dave thats neither fair or reasonable - the same could equally apply to the Tesla acolytes on here, perhaps even more so.
I would like to see EVs develop (I have a business thats more or less dependant on EV sales increasing), however I would like to see the market dictate growth so products evolve, become cost effective and therefore mainstream.
Unfortunately, many Tesla owners appear unrealistic particularly in relation to the current products on offer and fail to recognise there is a whole world out there with differing views and outlooks. A casual look at the car delinquency rates in the US speaks to the issue. Put it this way, Tesla owners in the main come from higher income brackets whereas people on struggle street can't afford an upmarket ICE let alone an overly priced EV.
If you want to bring people into the tent you have to have an inclusive strategy not an exclusive appearance. Conflating EVs with the politics of climate change is a major strategic blunder.
I would like to see EVs develop (I have a business thats more or less dependant on EV sales increasing), however I would like to see the market dictate growth so products evolve, become cost effective and therefore mainstream.
Unfortunately, many Tesla owners appear unrealistic particularly in relation to the current products on offer and fail to recognise there is a whole world out there with differing views and outlooks. A casual look at the car delinquency rates in the US speaks to the issue. Put it this way, Tesla owners in the main come from higher income brackets whereas people on struggle street can't afford an upmarket ICE let alone an overly priced EV.
If you want to bring people into the tent you have to have an inclusive strategy not an exclusive appearance. Conflating EVs with the politics of climate change is a major strategic blunder.
Last edited by groundhog; 02-15-2019 at 10:04 PM.
02-16-2019, 12:35 AM
#591
Burning Brakes
They are poorly made at the price point. I don't think anyone disputes this.
Also keep in mind it's price and utility that sells cars. Not "tech". That's why the Corrola has been so successful for so long.
Disruptive products do that and rapidly replace the now defunct product. However EV penetration rates are low even with significant support via various subsidies. Yes I know there are local exceptions to this.
Disruptive products do that and rapidly replace the now defunct product. However EV penetration rates are low even with significant support via various subsidies. Yes I know there are local exceptions to this.
I am interested in a quality lightweight performance EV - perhaps something of that ilk will be available in 5 to 10 years. Note the weight of the E Zoe.
I am am not interested in the politics of global warming as it is a matter of geological, archaeological and historical fact and record that the earths climate has been warming since the end of the last ice age which finished around 10,000 years ago. This is something well understood by the broader scientific community.
The shrillness of the debate is a function of politics and ignorance.
The shrillness of the debate is a function of politics and ignorance.
As to Musk - he's a world class spruiker and that's it.
He is in good company with a lot of other CEOs.
02-16-2019, 04:57 AM
#592
Banned
great - @acoste finally admitted he has no balance or perspective - it's been that way since his first post.
02-16-2019, 05:45 AM
#593
02-16-2019, 12:45 PM
#594
Another thing is the OTA updates
OTA updates make everyone excited and they don't realize this is a drawback and a potential safety issue.
First. Car makers should release products that are ready. They test prototypes for years. Once the car is in production there is hardly any need for software updates, because it is ready. It rarely happens that they need to fix something by software later on. BMW has OTA updates for maps which totally makes sense. But why would they need brakes update? It would be a red flag.
Tesla uses it as a feature, but the reality is they are just not ready with the product and finish it on the fly. For example they had a major brake system update after the Model 3 was released. Or for example they enable features later in the ownership. Is that good? Do I really want a product that isn't ready yet? Why I can't have a dash cam or blind spot detection from the beginning of the ownership?
Also every software update comes with a risk of incomplete testing. The more frequent the updates are, the higher the risk.
I believe this software update will get regulated later on and every update will have to be re-certified. US doesn't have much regulation, but EU does.
problems after an update. Once a software design has been fully tested over time, i.e. all paths of the software have been taken, the confidence level that the software is stable
is very high. If an update is made, that confidence level decreases.
A perfect example is what occurred to the Tesla's AP system after an OTA update recently. After driving on a two lane highway with a double-yellow and entering the intersection
where the double-yellow had ended, the Tesla vehicle changed lanes into the oncoming traffic. Surely this situation had been fully tested before the AP software was released
to product production, right? If not, then Tesla's software design team is very lacking!
02-16-2019, 01:03 PM
#595
“I would like to see EVs develop (I have a business thats more or less dependant on EV sales increasing), however I would like to see the market dictate growth so products evolve, become cost effective and therefore mainstream”
I think the marketplace is just about to see some of the first cost effective and mainstream EVs, and those are the Hyundai Kona EV and Kia Niro EV. Loaded products with 250 mile range at a $40K price point. Could well flip the perception of EVs being a niche product on its head.
I think the marketplace is just about to see some of the first cost effective and mainstream EVs, and those are the Hyundai Kona EV and Kia Niro EV. Loaded products with 250 mile range at a $40K price point. Could well flip the perception of EVs being a niche product on its head.
02-16-2019, 01:12 PM
#596
“I would like to see EVs develop (I have a business thats more or less dependant on EV sales increasing), however I would like to see the market dictate growth so products evolve, become cost effective and therefore mainstream”
I think the marketplace is just about to see some of the first cost effective and mainstream EVs, and those are the Hyundai Kona EV and Kia Niro EV. Loaded products with 250 mile range at a $40K price point. Could well flip the perception of EVs being a niche product on its head.
I think the marketplace is just about to see some of the first cost effective and mainstream EVs, and those are the Hyundai Kona EV and Kia Niro EV. Loaded products with 250 mile range at a $40K price point. Could well flip the perception of EVs being a niche product on its head.
02-16-2019, 02:05 PM
#597
I'd like to get opinions on a slightly different subject: DEPRECIATION RATE of a Taycan
Generally speaking I like to purchase 2-3 year old vehicles with under 30,000 miles. My view is I much prefer to let someone else take that 30-40% initial hit on depreciation and have my buy in price at a much more reasonable rate than new. Also, we tend to keep vehicles for a long time 8-10 years. If I move forward with the Taycan purchase as planned in 2020 it will be the first "new" car purchase in over a decade. While pricing is still nothing but speculation, I plan on purchasing the fastest and best handling version of the Taycan. Given Porsche's pricing structures on their ICE vehicles, I'm expecting to pay somewhere around $150K for the version I want. My concern is if I go look at the values of used Panamara Turbos or Cayanne Turbos the depreciation rate is absolutely horrendous. I'm seeing 2-3 year old panamara's and Cayanne's with forty 40% to 50% depreciation rates. However if I go look at Tesla's Model S they seem to hold their values much better with 2 year old P100's with around a 10-15% depreciation rate over 2 years.
As there are a lot of Tesla owners on this forum, I'd like your thoughts on how you speculate on how you may view depreciation of a future Taycan..
Generally speaking I like to purchase 2-3 year old vehicles with under 30,000 miles. My view is I much prefer to let someone else take that 30-40% initial hit on depreciation and have my buy in price at a much more reasonable rate than new. Also, we tend to keep vehicles for a long time 8-10 years. If I move forward with the Taycan purchase as planned in 2020 it will be the first "new" car purchase in over a decade. While pricing is still nothing but speculation, I plan on purchasing the fastest and best handling version of the Taycan. Given Porsche's pricing structures on their ICE vehicles, I'm expecting to pay somewhere around $150K for the version I want. My concern is if I go look at the values of used Panamara Turbos or Cayanne Turbos the depreciation rate is absolutely horrendous. I'm seeing 2-3 year old panamara's and Cayanne's with forty 40% to 50% depreciation rates. However if I go look at Tesla's Model S they seem to hold their values much better with 2 year old P100's with around a 10-15% depreciation rate over 2 years.
As there are a lot of Tesla owners on this forum, I'd like your thoughts on how you speculate on how you may view depreciation of a future Taycan..
02-16-2019, 04:36 PM
#598
Burning Brakes
I'd like to get opinions on a slightly different subject: DEPRECIATION RATE of a Taycan
Generally speaking I like to purchase 2-3 year old vehicles with under 30,000 miles. My view is I much prefer to let someone else take that 30-40% initial hit on depreciation and have my buy in price at a much more reasonable rate than new. Also, we tend to keep vehicles for a long time 8-10 years. If I move forward with the Taycan purchase as planned in 2020 it will be the first "new" car purchase in over a decade. While pricing is still nothing but speculation, I plan on purchasing the fastest and best handling version of the Taycan. Given Porsche's pricing structures on their ICE vehicles, I'm expecting to pay somewhere around $150K for the version I want. My concern is if I go look at the values of used Panamara Turbos or Cayanne Turbos the depreciation rate is absolutely horrendous. I'm seeing 2-3 year old panamara's and Cayanne's with forty 40% to 50% depreciation rates. However if I go look at Tesla's Model S they seem to hold their values much better with 2 year old P100's with around a 10-15% depreciation rate over 2 years.
As there are a lot of Tesla owners on this forum, I'd like your thoughts on how you speculate on how you may view depreciation of a future Taycan..
Generally speaking I like to purchase 2-3 year old vehicles with under 30,000 miles. My view is I much prefer to let someone else take that 30-40% initial hit on depreciation and have my buy in price at a much more reasonable rate than new. Also, we tend to keep vehicles for a long time 8-10 years. If I move forward with the Taycan purchase as planned in 2020 it will be the first "new" car purchase in over a decade. While pricing is still nothing but speculation, I plan on purchasing the fastest and best handling version of the Taycan. Given Porsche's pricing structures on their ICE vehicles, I'm expecting to pay somewhere around $150K for the version I want. My concern is if I go look at the values of used Panamara Turbos or Cayanne Turbos the depreciation rate is absolutely horrendous. I'm seeing 2-3 year old panamara's and Cayanne's with forty 40% to 50% depreciation rates. However if I go look at Tesla's Model S they seem to hold their values much better with 2 year old P100's with around a 10-15% depreciation rate over 2 years.
As there are a lot of Tesla owners on this forum, I'd like your thoughts on how you speculate on how you may view depreciation of a future Taycan..
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/thre.../#post-3350483
$164k > $105k in 2.5 years is 16.5% annual depreciation based on asking price. 30k miles.
https://onlyusedtesla.com/listing/mo...7-pearl-5bdac/
$162k > $124k in 1.8 years is 14.5% annual depreciation based on asking price. 7k miles
https://onlyusedtesla.com/listing/mo...7-pearl-deca2/
$173k > $114k in 1.2 years is 29% annual depreciation based on sales price. 23k miles.
In general Tesla has similar depreciation than high performance ICE cars right now. Several factors to it: they don't have a well developed pricing and model strategy or leasing yet (causing sudden drops occasionally in used cars' prices), and also no CPO cars. Also there is no proven history of 6+ years old batteries or drive trains.
https://www.cargurus.com/Cars/price-...-Model-S-d2039
As for the Taycan I expect 15% annual depreciation (could be even less) but there are 2 risk factors:
- someone comes out with a battery that has at least 2x energy density compared to today's systems. (around 1.4x expected in the next 5 years, but I mean something more substantial improvement)
- most car makers come out with their Level 3 autonomy in around 2021. I expect these systems to be well tested by 2025. This may give some downward pressure on used car sales prices with prior systems.
02-16-2019, 11:25 PM
#599
02-16-2019, 11:58 PM
#600
Burning Brakes
So no adaptive cruise control in Teslas without getting Autopilot? That's unfortunate, if true...