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Tesla existential threat?

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Old 02-13-2019, 03:44 PM
  #571  
wizee
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Originally Posted by daveo4porsche
I love my Bolt and my Tesla, and the Taycan is promising, eTron is pretty good, and the iPace is a great car - the Leaf still doesn't have active thermals and batteries degrade, the Zoe and the 208

Zoe is made by Renault - I've never been a fan of their products
208 is limited in quanties or not even shipping yet - and offers limited 150 mile range - Peugot also has a spotty record regarding quality.
That’s fair.

This thread was becoming excessively polarized, with some saying e-Tron and I-Pace are not competitive with Tesla or that European manufacturers don’t know how to compete, and others saying Tesla sucks and Audi/Jaguar etc are far superior and nobody will buy Tesla. I don’t think either is a fair statement, though there is a little more truth to the former view.

Chevy Bolt aside, non-Tesla electric cars from 2017 and earlier had terrible range and other issues. The latest crop of 2019 European electric vehicles is still behind Tesla on range and acceleration, but the gap on leaders like the e-Tron and I-Pace is much smaller than in 2017 and earlier. There are also differences in interior - some like myself prefer the conventional dashboard layout and interior materials of European luxury cars. There are price and size differences too; the e-Tron and I-Pace are in a different price bracket than the Model X. These cars aren’t perfect - more range and storage space should be achievable with more platform development. However, I do think they’re good options for their market segment.

The Volkswagen ID is also looking good from what I’ve seen, and I expect it to do well.

Tesla has been in a cash crunch for an extended period, but they’ve managed to hang on, sell well, and scale rapidly. I don’t think their rapid rate of growth can be sustained much longer once other car makers’ serious electric offerings come onto the market this year and next. However this doesn’t mean Tesla will die or not sell anything. It just means that the exponential growth can’t be sustained too long - the market is finite and genuine competitors are starting to emerge.

I’m excited about the Taycan. I’ve rented a Model 3 before, liked the electric powertrain and infotainment, but didn’t really love its dash layout, seats, egg shaped styling, and steering feel. The Taycan should combine what I liked about the Model 3 with what I like about ICE Porsches (except for engine noise).
Old 02-13-2019, 06:42 PM
  #572  
thebishman
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Originally Posted by daveo4porsche
I love my Bolt and my Tesla, and the Taycan is promising, eTron is pretty good, and the iPace is a great car - the Leaf still doesn't have active thermals and batteries degrade, the Zoe and the 208

Zoe is made by Renault - I've never been a fan of their products
208 is limited in quanties or not even shipping yet - and offers limited 150 mile range - Peugot also has a spotty record regarding quality.
I love everything I’ve read about the iPace except for what seems to be a ridiculously low range? Even with a 90kW battery there are reports the car won’t go 200 miles in ‘normal’ driving.

Any insights?
Old 02-13-2019, 07:32 PM
  #573  
acoste
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Originally Posted by thebishman
I love everything I’ve read about the iPace except for what seems to be a ridiculously low range? Even with a 90kW battery there are reports the car won’t go 200 miles in ‘normal’ driving.
Any insights?

The difference comes from the earlier mentioned air drag coefficient. The higher the number, the more power the car needs at higher speeds. At low speeds / city driving I-pace range is similar to a Model S (similar weight). (Model X is 600 lbs heavier).

There are 3 spots (could be more but this is what I see) what makes the air drag coefficient worse:
- Jaguar kept the ICE look on the front unlike Tesla, (grill and larger intakes)
- and also the roof line was designed to look cool instead of efficient. When you look at them from profile, Model X roof is curved from the bottom of the front windshield to the tail lights (similar to Toyota Prius) while I-pace top is almost straight.
- from top view, Tesla is more rounded - grille area and corners,
Audi e-tron has lower range for the same reasons.

One thing I like about Jaguar is that they minimized the total area of the battery. (they made it taller instead). So the Jaguar has more crumple zone on the front and on the sides as well, this makes it safer.
Old 02-13-2019, 07:39 PM
  #574  
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Originally Posted by daveo4porsche
given that all those cars actually suck compared to the 3 I think it will do fine - none of those cars are actually any good and all have serious deficiencies - at a minimum they don't have the battery production capacity to complete with Tesla on volume - something the Euro-boys are only now beginning to admit.
Really - the leaf and the Zoe outsell Tesla in Europe - in Europe people buy them - why? Because they are cost effective. The ID and 208 will provide more of the same - more of what the market wants. This what they have always done. Most successful car companies - Toyota and VW Audi Group.

As a general rule Europeans prefer cars with a small physical footprint. With an EV this also equates to a smaller environmental footprint.

Tesla does not have any advantage with batteries, it does not control the supply chain.

In Norway - the largest Tesla market in Europe - Tesla rated worse than any other manufacturer - a rerun of its record in other reliability surveys in other markets.

Perhaps read around a little more and consider what others are writing through a larger prism. Perhaps you should read some of the testimony given to your own US Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources - in relation to the state of the battery industry in the US and the reality of its prospects.

Sales figures are real, Teslas penetration rate in Europe is low to non-existent and people prefer to buy other forms of EV. This is not conjecture - this is actually what is happening. Again the problems reported in Norway are real - sloppy quality and poor supply chains mated with poor customer service. In fact Musk was there very recently trying to pour oil on troubled waters.

The imputation the Euros won't be able to compete with Tesla does not bare scrutiny. They will build what the market requires and evolve product with a focus on the market.

At at the end of the day most people want something that gets them from A to B and or can haul lots of stuff - that's why Americans buy Camrys and pick up trucks - they are cheap and they work.

The same logic applies to EVs they either have to be cheap (cost effective) or work (be able to carry out specific tasks e.g. Tow or haul stuff).



Last edited by groundhog; 02-13-2019 at 08:31 PM.
Old 02-14-2019, 08:03 AM
  #575  
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Originally Posted by whiz944
For some reason, people think Tesla == Model S/X. The tech in those is so 2012... The tech in the Model 3 has raised the bar quite a bit. The Model 3 size is also better suited to European roads and it is half the price of the S/X. So I think it will do OK.
Perhaps because model 3 deliveries only started in Europe 10 days ago and aren't expected in RHD United Kingdom for another 9 months. The waiting list remains long so it hasn't been a realistic option for most of us.
I'm not sure I agree about the Model 3 size being better suited to European roads though. Incredibly not all our roads are mud and stone, some of them even have two lanes and very occasionally they are covered in this smooth black stuff.
Old 02-14-2019, 12:41 PM
  #576  
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Originally Posted by EvilTed
Perhaps because model 3 deliveries only started in Europe 10 days ago and aren't expected in RHD United Kingdom for another 9 months. The waiting list remains long so it hasn't been a realistic option for most of us.
The wait will be worth it! It is really a fun car to drive.

I'm not sure I agree about the Model 3 size being better suited to European roads though. Incredibly not all our roads are mud and stone, some of them even have two lanes and very occasionally they are covered in this smooth black stuff.
Yeah - I've been to England and the Continent and have seen a few of those roads. (Amazed when I was in Peniscola, Spain a few years ago though - watching/avoiding the cars driving around narrow streets in the old city/castle. Not sure I'd want to drive anything larger than a Mini in there...)
Old 02-14-2019, 09:44 PM
  #577  
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The price of the Model 3 in Europe will be ~ in euros ~ 55k to 75k depending options etc.

The Renault Zoe is ~ 20k (without rebates which can total ~5k).

The Leaf is ~ 30 to 38k

For reference the base Cayman is priced at ~55k

The 2017 E sport concept.

If they made it - I'd buy it.
Old 02-14-2019, 10:54 PM
  #578  
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Originally Posted by groundhog
... The Renault Zoe is ~ 20k (without rebates which can total ~5k)...
Isn't that the price sans battery pack?
Old 02-14-2019, 10:58 PM
  #579  
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I think you pay 75 a month for 36 months (which is ~ 2.5k, more than off set by the rebate).
Old 02-15-2019, 11:12 AM
  #580  
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Originally Posted by whiz944
The tech in the Model 3 has raised the bar quite a bit.
Really? Could you be specific and elaborate fully on "has raised the bar" with regard to Tesla's contribution to technology and not what vendors such as Nvidia have contributed.
As an example of not leading, Telsa used an AC synchronous motor in the MS/MX and now has followed Nissan with a PM motor in the M3. Remember, Tesla offered their
EV patents free to all automotive OEMs, but most just yawned.
Old 02-15-2019, 12:33 PM
  #581  
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Originally Posted by Lorenfb
Really? Could you be specific and elaborate fully on "has raised the bar" with regard to Tesla's contribution to technology and not what vendors such as Nvidia have contributed.
As an example of not leading, Telsa used an AC synchronous motor in the MS/MX and now has followed Nissan with a PM motor in the M3. Remember, Tesla offered their EV patents free to all automotive OEMs, but most just yawned.
Most other manufacturers haven't given much more than lip service and "compliance cars" to the EV community.

If you bother to watch some of the numerous Model 3 tear down videos, the advances over the S/X drive train for better packaging, lower costs, and higher efficiency are quite obvious. The S/X could, and probably should, be updated to incorporate many of them. And who cares if they buy their GPUs from Nvidia? Nvidia offers some great tech. Likewise their many-year relationship with Panasonic for batteries. No different than the German automakers buying a lot of their tech from Bosch, Continental, etc...

The rear motor in the Model 3 is not a typical PM motor. It is a hybrid reluctance motor that incorporates PMs into the design. I think the BMW i3 motor is somewhat similar, but not aware of any other manufacturer using anything like it. The front motor in the Dual Motor cars remains an induction motor - which has its own advantages and trade-offs.
Old 02-15-2019, 01:21 PM
  #582  
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Originally Posted by whiz944
Most other manufacturers haven't given much more than lip service and "compliance cars" to the EV community.

If you bother to watch some of the numerous Model 3 tear down videos, the advances over the S/X drive train for better packaging, lower costs, and higher efficiency are quite obvious. The S/X could, and probably should, be updated to incorporate many of them. And who cares if they buy their GPUs from Nvidia? Nvidia offers some great tech. Likewise their many-year relationship with Panasonic for batteries. No different than the German automakers buying a lot of their tech from Bosch, Continental, etc...

The rear motor in the Model 3 is not a typical PM motor. It is a hybrid reluctance motor that incorporates PMs into the design. I think the BMW i3 motor is somewhat similar, but not aware of any other manufacturer using anything like it. The front motor in the Dual Motor cars remains an induction motor - which has its own advantages and trade-offs.
So basically on par with other OEM's technology. Hardly having "raised the bar"! With regard to the tear downs, Munro estimated that Tesla's cost for the M3 was $28K - $30K.
Elon a few months ago indicated the M3 cost as being $38K. Besides, Munro had no idea about evaluating the semiconductor or processor technology being used. So much for that "tear down".
Old 02-15-2019, 02:15 PM
  #583  
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This is good news. Some serious funding for Rivian. Out of any of the non-Tesla EV startups, Rivian seems the most impressive and attractive. I'd love for them to succeed.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/15/rivi...by-amazon.html
Old 02-15-2019, 02:16 PM
  #584  
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Originally Posted by Lorenfb
So basically on par with other OEM's technology. Hardly having "raised the bar"!
Uh huh. The i3 costs as much as the TM3 and is less car. Bolt EV costs a little less, but it has its issues as well. (Yes, I have driven both.) Moving up the food chain, the i-Pace looks like a nice first shot. But it seems to be taking some serious hits in software stability, efficiency/range, and charging - compared to a Model S or X. It will be interesting to see where it is at in a year or two.

With regard to the tear downs, Munro estimated that Tesla's cost for the M3 was $28K - $30K.
... with the LR battery pack. How much does that drop with the MR or upcoming SR pack?

Elon a few months ago indicated the M3 cost as being $38K. Besides, Munro had no idea about evaluating the semiconductor or processor technology being used. So much for that "tear down".
Methinks Elon is sandbagging to justify selling higher priced/more profitable variants for as long as he can. (Which I'd think most TSLA shareholders would agree with.)
Old 02-15-2019, 02:57 PM
  #585  
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Originally Posted by whiz944
Most other manufacturers haven't given much more than lip service and "compliance cars" to the EV community.

If you bother to watch some of the numerous Model 3 tear down videos, the advances over the S/X drive train for better packaging, lower costs, and higher efficiency are quite obvious. The S/X could, and probably should, be updated to incorporate many of them. And who cares if they buy their GPUs from Nvidia? Nvidia offers some great tech. Likewise their many-year relationship with Panasonic for batteries. No different than the German automakers buying a lot of their tech from Bosch, Continental, etc...

The rear motor in the Model 3 is not a typical PM motor. It is a hybrid reluctance motor that incorporates PMs into the design. I think the BMW i3 motor is somewhat similar, but not aware of any other manufacturer using anything like it. The front motor in the Dual Motor cars remains an induction motor - which has its own advantages and trade-offs.

It is naive to think that a new car maker can suddenly outsmart every other car companies with decades of experiences. They can cut corners in some areas that looks like an advancement but turns out later on that there is a reason why others don't use those practices.

People's believe about Tesla being a supercar comes straight from Elon who is quick to make unrealistic statements and from people's experience who got used to slow auto transmission shifting and throttle lag and sitting in an electric car after those is a relief for sure.

Tesla's marketing strategy also adds to the false image. They were focusing on numbers everyone understands and pushed them to the limits. For example range and 0-60 acceleration time. And once another car maker comes out with higher consumption people think that's because they aren't as good engineers. But this is very far from truth. It is the marketing department who dictates. One of Tesla's marketing goal was the range, while for example Audi's marketing target was to try to lure ICE believers buying into electric cars, so they designed the car that looks like an ICE car (remember the front black oval that looked like a radiator inlet on the pre-facelift Tesla Model S?) and also to keep all the usual AUDI convenience features in place which adds energy consumption and weight. Both Audi and Jaguar prioritized the look instead of the range.

Another thing is the OTA updates
OTA updates make everyone excited and they don't realize this is a drawback and a potential safety issue.
First. Car makers should release products that are ready. They test prototypes for years. Once the car is in production there is hardly any need for software updates, because it is ready. It rarely happens that they need to fix something by software later on. BMW has OTA updates for maps which totally makes sense. But why would they need brakes update? It would be a red flag.
Tesla uses it as a feature, but the reality is they are just not ready with the product and finish it on the fly. For example they had a major brake system update after the Model 3 was released. Or for example they enable features later in the ownership. Is that good? Do I really want a product that isn't ready yet? Why I can't have a dash cam or blind spot detection from the beginning of the ownership?
Also every software update comes with a risk of incomplete testing. The more frequent the updates are, the higher the risk.
I believe this software update will get regulated later on and every update will have to be re-certified. US doesn't have much regulation, but EU does.

Autopilot.
Due to the long testing times, cars rarely get the latest technology, they usually lag by at least 3-4 years, but it is for our safety. Tesla did risk to release the autopilot before it was ready. They call it beta version for legal reasons and use owners for testing. Everyone can have their opinion if this is ok.
They are ahead of some car companies, but MobilEye, GM and Waymo already have better products but they aren't released to public, except Cruise. There are one or two areas where they are ahead, in others they lag.

Simplicity.
This is about using the center display and omitting a lot of misc parts. Now the fastest and cheapest way to design a car is using a generic computer instead of designing car specific hardware. They saved a year by doing so plus tons of money, and also played on people's screen addiction. It has its benefits and drawbacks everyone understands. Less noticeable minimalism is for example omitting the rain sensors and trying to detect rain by cameras (which is still not working properly). Or for example instead of having a dedicated light near the rear view mirrors, they just display blind spot detection on the central display. And so on.

Elon's false statements.
For example safety. He called Model 3 being the safest car even though a 3 series BMW is safer in a side pole collision. And he made this statement based on the NHTSA crash test that covers 40% of all the different tests. They only do full overlap frontal crash and no half or quarter overlap. He never mentioned that the Model S battery gets damaged in the 20 mph side pole test.
He also said AutoPilot makes his cars safer which also wasn't true but twisted statistics. They tried to cover the truth after accidents, always blaming the driver.
Just to show an obvious example how big magician he is, he presented "real solar tiles with conventional look" to convince investors about SolarCity acquisition while none of the demonstrated tiles were working and they aren't ready even until today.
FSD. Elon uses the term Full Self Driving which is completely misleading. People think that is a production ready self driving system, but on their website they say "twice as safe as a human driver" which questions the previous definition. 2 years ago he said FSD is Level 5 autonomy but nowadays it looks like it's going to be Level 2 (needs driver's full attention).

People not familiar with the matter simply believe everything Elon says.


ps: to earl pottinger
I don't need to be balanced. The thread is balanced by the comments from multiple people.

Last edited by acoste; 02-15-2019 at 04:20 PM.


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